Impact of computers and Internet access on economic development in Poland

Transcription

1 Jan Grzegorek Impact of computers and Internet access on economic development in Poland Warszawa 1

2 The purpose and objective of the work Investigated the relationship between the statistics of the households equipped with computers and computers with Internet access and various economic indicators. It is the first of this type of disertation in the country. 2

3 Justification for the choice of the topic The increase of the knowledge value The demand for IT education egovernment - Access to the electronic public administration ecommerce - shopping and other services on the Internet Teleworking Hence the resulting research questions 3

4 Research Questions What are the characteristics of households using the computer and a computer with Internet access in Poland? Does the equipment of households in the computer and a computer with Internet access affect the economy in Poland? What is the delay between the equipment of households in the computer and a computer with Internet access in Poland? What is the Polish comparison with the world? 4

5 Data Source for analysing Research CBOS, GUS and other achieved in recent years among residents of Poland. The statistics available on the website Statistical Yearbooks Data available on the Internet 5

6 Investigate of statistics dependences Households using personal computers and computers with access to the Internet Number of Enterprises of the Economy Scope of Gross Domestic Product Scope of Fixed Assets Population size 6

7 How investigated Analysis of the size of their economic characteristics. Gather data to study the statistical series. The estimation of the size of the test for the period using statistics. The study of correlation and regression between the data. 7

8 Territorial range Voivodships DOLNOŚLĄSKIE KUJAWSKO-POMORSKIE LUBELSKIE LUBUSKIE ŁÓDZKIE MAZOWIECKIE MAŁOPOLSKIE OPOLSKIE PODKARPACKIE PODLASKIE POMORSKIE ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE ŚLĄSKIE WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE WIELKOPOLSKIE ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE Regions Region centralny * Region południowy * Region wschodni * Region północno-zachodni * Region południowo-zachodni * Region północny * Polska World - ITU * * In preparation 8

9 Statistical Tables containing statistical series 9

10 Raw data for Poland No Year Population Households using a personal computer Households using an Internet Economic enterprises Gross Domestic Product [mln zl] Fixed Assets [thousand zl] ,70% 12,80% ,90% 16,90% ,60% 22,50% ,70% 28,40%

11 Raw data Central Region No Year Population Households using a personal computer Households using an Internet Economic enterprises Gross Domestic Product [mln zl] Fixed Assets [thousand zl] , , , , ,90% 15,60% , ,90% 18,20% , ,60% 23,90% , ,70% 30,10% ,

12 Raw data Mazowieckie Voivodships No Year Population Households using a personal computer Households using an Internet Economic enterprises Gross Domestic Product [mln zl] Fixed Assets [thousand zl] , , , , ,80% 16,00% , ,80% 20,20% , ,00% 26,90% , ,00% 32,50% ,

13 The estimation of the variables tested 13

14 Introduction Statistical Tables containing statistical series are incomplete. They contain fragmentary data. To complement the estimation we made to regard to linear and non-linear nature of the models and test size. 14

15 Using Mathematic In economics as in most natural scientific disciplines observed mathematization description of phenomena. This is a result of a certain level of development of the theory of this discipline, allowing formalization considerations. 15

16 Mathematical models used in disertation Linear function is used to describe Population Gros Domestic Product Fixed Assets Sigmoidal Personal computers (used in households share in % of them) Internet (used in households share in % of them) Log Enterprises It means that the type of curve give the best estimatation of presented data. 16

17 A sigmoid model A sigmoidal function is a mathematical function that produce sigmoid curve havig an S shape define by the formula. It is used to explain process which changing first slowly next grow up rapidly to duration and then changing slowly. 17

18 A linear model A sigmoidal function is a mathematical function that produce linear curve define by the formula. It is used to explain process which changing first slowly next grow up rapidly to duration and then changing slowly. Y=a*x+b 18

19 A log model A log function is a mathematical function that produce log curve havig shape define by the formula. It is used to explain process which changing slowly then linear Y= a + b*ln(x) 19

20 The population graph Population Estimation y = *x ,8 R = 0, Raw data Estimated data 20

21 Households using personal computer graph Estimation y = 1/(1+25,2*exp(-0,25*x)) alpha=

22 Hoseholds using personal computers with access to the Internet graph Estimation y = 1/(1+135,4*exp(-0,33*x)) alpha=

23 Delay between using coputers and Internet graph 1,5 years 4 years 2 years 23

24 Enterprises of the Economy graph Enterprises of the Economy Estimation y=674940,9*log(x) ,8 alpha= Raw Data Estimated Data 24

25 Gross Domestic Product graph Gross Domestic Product Estimation y = *x R = 0, Raw Data Estimated Data 25

26 Fixed Assets graph Estimation y = *x R = 0,99 26

27 The study of correlation and regression between the data 27

28 Correlation between Enterprises of Economy and Computers graph Correlation between Enterprises of Economy and computers Correlation y = *log10(x) R=0,96 Correlation y= *x R= 0,90 0 4,85% 6,14% 7,74% 9,72% 12,14% 15,05% 18,52% 22,58% 27,23% 32,44% 38,12% 44,14% 50,35% 56,54% 62,53% 68,17% 73,31% 77,90% 81,89% 85,30% 88,16% 90,52% 92,45% 94,02% 95,28% 96,28% Estimated Enterprises of the Economy Non Linear Regression Linear Regression 28

29 Summary Based on analysis of the issues related to the use of computers and the use of the Internet a logistic model was chosen as well fitting to even scarce data and thus most suitable for forecasting of these events. Analyses include diverse models of computer use and Internet access The the impact of computer use and Internet access on economic indicators in Poland is strong and important statically The analysis was performed using the program Statistica version 7.0 using various statistical models. 29

30 Internet users per 100 inhabitants in years (source ITU) ITU 100,0% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% World Developed Developing 30

31 Conclusions A study of time series of selected indicators shows good approximation with logistic or linear models, even if the data is scarce A study of statistical dependence between households equipped with computers or computers with Internet access and selected economic indicators shows very strong correlation between them. This is the first such survey in Poland. 31