Attribution of the global temperature plateau

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1 Attribution of the global temperature plateau Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo and Muhammad Asif International Workshop on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction, Toulouse, 13 May 2013

2 Experimental setup Methodology Observations

3 Experimental setup Methodology Observations

4 Experimental setup Methodology Observations

5 Methodology Experimental setup every year 1990 until Observations

6 Methodology Experimental setup every year 1990 until 2012 Greenhouse Gases + Aerosols + Solar Cycle Observations CMIP5 historical / 2005 / RCP

7 Methodology Model

8 Methodology Full field Initialisation ERA40/ERAinterim ORAS4 GLORYS2V1 + NEMO-LIM run forced by DFS4.3

9 Methodology Analyses: Example : Focus on 3 rd forecast year 1961 Observations

10 Methodology Analyses: Example : Focus on 3 rd forecast year 1961 Observations

11 Methodology Analyses: Example : Focus on 3 rd forecast year 1961 Observations

12 Methodology Analyses: Example : Focus on 3 rd forecast year 51 forecasts : anomalies relative to Observations

13 Successful climate of the global temperature plateau Global mean Sea Surface Temperature (60 S-60 N) Forecast years 1 to 3 ERSST The climate s capture the warming slowdown

14 Successful climate of the global temperature plateau Global mean Sea Surface Temperature (60 S-60 N) Init EC-Earth historical simulations starting from 1850 preindustrial control simulations NoInit Initializing from observations is crucial to capture the plateau

15 Successful climate of the global temperature plateau Global mean Sea Surface Temperature (60 S-60 N) Smoothing with 1-year running mean Init NoInit ERSST Initializing allows to the SST evolution along the s

16 Successful climate of the global temperature plateau Global mean Sea Surface Temperature (60 S-60 N) Smoothing with 1-year running mean Init NoInit Initializing allows to the SST evolution along the s

17 Methodology Analyses: 3-year mean changes along the forecast 1960 Years 1 to 3 Years 3 to 5 Observations

18 Methodology Analyses: 3-year mean changes along the forecast Observations

19 Successful climate of the global temperature plateau 3-year mean change in global SST (60 S-60 N) Init ERSST NoInit Initialization improves the SST trend along the forecast

20 Analysis of these s to attribute the global temperature plateau Global Top-of Atmosphere Excess Energy Forecast years 2 to 4 Init CERES NoInit TOA input energy around 0.4 x Joules captured

21 Analysis of these s to attribute the global temperature plateau Global TOA Excess Energy Global Ocean Heat Uptake Init ORAS4 NoInit Increased Ocean Heat Uptake compensates for TOA inflow

22 Analysis of these s to attribute the global temperature plateau Global Ocean Heat Uptake Init ORAS4 NoInit Largest ever recorded peak in ocean heat uptake

23 Analysis of these s to attribute the global temperature plateau ORAS4 Ocean heat uptake (0-800m excluding the mixed layer) at the onset of the plateau The plateau seems due to increased ocean heat absorption

24 Analysis of these s to attribute the global temperature plateau ORAS4 Init Increased ocean heat uptake in the Pacific captured by Init

25 Analysis of these s to attribute the global temperature plateau ORAS4 NoInit Weak signals after ensemble-mean operator on NoInit

26 Conclusions Ec-Earth climate s capture the temperature plateau until 5 years ahead. The realism of the SST trend along the forecast is improved with initialization The Earth s heat budget shows that the TOA excess energy has been mainly absorbed in the ocean below the mixed layer at the onset of the plateau

27 Thank you very much for your attention This work was supported by the EU- funded SPECS project, under grant agreement

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