Growth Trends in Hampton Roads

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Cordelia Bradford
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1 Presentation to the Isle of Wight County Board of Supervisors Growth Trends in Hampton Roads Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist September 19, 2014 Looking to REGIONAL FORECAST

2 WHAT IS THE HRPDC 1 of 21 Regional Planning Agencies State enabled; locally created 10 Cities, 6 Counties, 1 Town; 1.7 million people; 3,000 square miles; 5,000 miles shoreline Commission 45 local elected officials & CAOs Staff Executive Director & 45 staff Funding Local contributions, grants and contracts Functions Economics, Housing, Transportation, Environmental, Emergency Management Budget $16,000,000 + Role Policy & Technical Analysis, Planning & Engineering Studies, Cooperative Problem Solving, Coordination Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization 2

3 Historic Population Growth 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400, % growth since 1960 Annualized growth rate of 1.16% 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,

4 Number of Persons Components of Population Growth 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) Births, Deaths, and Net Migration in Hampton Roads Births Deaths Net Migration 4

5 Population Growth from % 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% Hampton Roads Average 0% -50% 5

6 Population Growth from % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Hampton Roads Average 0% -20% 6

7 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Annualized Population Growth Over the Past Decade 0.0% Isle of Wight Virginia United States Hampton Roads 7

8 Population Growth in Isle of Wight 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,

9 Population added per Decade in Isle of Wight 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 9

10 Forecast for 2040 Population Employment by place of work Retail Industrial Office Other Households Employment by place of residence Passenger Vehicle Registrations 10

11 Forecast Methodology Regional Control Totals 1. Literature Review of Forecasting Techniques 2. Review Best Practices 3. Data Collection Raw Data Locality Data Research Assumptions Model Inputs 4. Produce Draft Control Totals 5. Produce Draft Jurisdiction Totals 6. Review Draft with Planning Staff/LRTP Subcommittee 11

12 Forecast Methodologies Literature Review & Best Practices Techniques Extrapolation Ratio Cohort Structural Best Practices Diverse methodologies Iterative process Top Down / Bottom Up Dynamic / Structural Evidence Suggests: Forecast Accuracy Increases with Population Size Increases with slow steady positive growth rates Declines over time 12

13 Location of 2040 Households 1 Dot = 100 Households 13

14 Location of 2040 Employment 1 Dot = 100 Employees 14

15 Change in Households, 2009 to Dot = 100 Household Increase 1 Dot = 100 Household Decrease 15

16 Change in Employment, 2009 to Dot = 100 Employee Increase 1 Dot = 100 Employee Decrease 16

Total Population 2040 2040 Population Peninsula 583,000

17 Total Population Population Peninsula 583,000 East Southside 875,466 West Southside 533,534 Total 1,992,000 17

Total Employment 2040 2040 Total Employment Peninsula 375,401

18 Total Employment Total Employment Peninsula 375,401 East Southside 646,212 West Southside 230,988 Total 1,252,600 18

19 Portion of Population Growth Population 2040 Population Projected Growth Peninsula 519, ,000 63,876 East Southside 763, , ,605 West Southside 344, , ,245 Total 1,627,274 1,992, ,726 19

Portion of Employment Growth 2009 Total Employment 2040 Total Employment Projected Growth Peninsula 316,607 375,401

20 Portion of Employment Growth 2009 Total Employment 2040 Total Employment Projected Growth Peninsula 316, ,401 58,794 East Southside 567, ,212 79,009 West Southside 156, ,988 74,981 Total 1,039,818 1,252, ,783 20

21 Change in Households, 2009 to 2040 Isle of Wight 1 Dot = 10 Household Increase 1 Dot = 10 Household Decrease 21

22 Change in Employment, 2009 to 2040 Isle of Wight 1 Dot = 10 Household Increase 1 Dot = 10 Household Decrease 22

23 Projected Population Growth , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 23

24 Projected Population Growth Rate % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Hampton Roads Average 0% -20% 24

25 Projected Employment Growth ,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,

26 Projected Employment Growth Rate % 100% 80% 60% 40% Hampton Roads Average 20% 0% 26

27 What DRIVES Population Growth at Space Schools Quality & perception Employment Access & opportunity Affordability Relative housing costs Amenities Transportation Access and options Quality of Life the Local Level 27

28 Conclusion Isle of Wight has experienced strong growth in recent years Population and employment forecasts suggest that Isle of Wight will continue to experience very strong growth in the coming years Real estate, education, employment, affordability and quality of life are important factors in determining the extent of growth 28

29 Questions Greg Grootendorst Hampton Roads Planning District Commission

REPORT OF THE ENGINEERING & PLANNING DEPARTMENT PLANNING DIVISION

REPORT OF THE ENGINEERING & PLANNING DEPARTMENT PLANNING DIVISION 2008 09 22 TO: Mayor John Rowswell and Members of City Council SUBJECT: Official Plan Review 2008 Part 1 - Population and Household Projections