2012 Raleigh-Durham Market Forecast Investment Sales. Jeff Glenn CBRE Wednesday, March 21, 2012

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1 2012 Raleigh-Durham Market Forecast Investment Sales Jeff Glenn CBRE Wednesday, March 21, 2012

2 What s Wrong with this Picture?

3 TOPICS I. National Perspective II. Raleigh-Durham Spotlight III. A Closer look at Office IV. A Closer look at Multi-Family CBRE Page 3

4 Key Themes Apartments sales have reached peak levels while office sales percolate While levels of distress decline overall, office with laggard lease expirations are bringing up the rear Lots of capital on the sidelines (still) either seeking hard-to-find opportunistic deals or core credit deals that are in short-supply in Raleigh General impression that debt will remain low but only has one way to go More lenders are in the market, but low leverage prevails Raleigh is the top growth market in the Southeast but still regarded as secondary with limited barriers-to-entry Development is back for quality, infill residential, but equity is still very finicky. CBRE Page 4

5 Growth Tops in the Nation Raleigh-Durham Population Growth 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , (forecast) 2030 (forecast) Year Population Growth ,952 - Growth Percentage , , % ,220, , % ,634, , % 2020 (forecast) 2,057, , % 2030 (forecast) 2,469, , % Source: State of NC Demographers Office CBRE Page 5

6 Total Employment Growth (%) Source: CBRE, CoStar Group, M/PF YieldStar, CBRE Econometric Advisors CBRE Page 6

7 HIGH GROWTH MARKETS =======> Employment Growth (5-Year Forecast = 1.75% avg. annual) A Great Combination of Factors For Raleigh Raleigh Salt Lake City Austin San Antonio Charlotte 2.5 San Diego Portland Phoenix Nashville Dallas/Ft. Worth Indianapolis 2 Jacksonville Minneapolis Atlanta Seattle Houston Albuquerque Tampa SF Metro 1.5 Cincinnati Washington, DC Kansas Oklahoma City Columbus City Sacramento St. Louis Pittsburgh Denver 1 Chicago Fresno Boston Los Angeles Philadelphia Toledo Detroit New York Hartford Cleveland Tucson Orlando South Florida Problem Markets? High Distress, Low Growth Relative Distress Index Good Markets = Low Distress, High Growth Honolulu Las Vegas Source: CBRE-EA and RCA, December 2011 CBRE Page 7

8 Distress Across the US The commercial real estate market is improving at a modest pace, but newly troubled properties continue to enter the distress pool. Source: RCA Troubled Assets Radar, November 2011 Bubbles are sized to relative distress values CBRE Page 8

9 Growth of Troubled Assets Levels Off Resolutions increased by $13.69 billion in Q4 Source: RCA, January 2012 CBRE Page 9

10 Volume of Distressed Deals Recedes Lender REO now accounts for 25.7% of total Distressed Assets Source: RCA, Troubled Assets Radar and CBRE-EA December 2011 CBRE Page 10

11 $ Billions Loans in Special Servicing % of CMBS Outstanding Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 $ Unpaid Balance ($) % of CMBS 14% $ % $80.00 $ % $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $ % 6% 4% 2% $0.00 0% Source: Morningstar Monthly Delinquency Report, December 2011 CBRE Page 11

12 Commercial Real Estate Transactions Volume by Seller Type $160,000,000,000 $140,000,000,000 $120,000,000,000 $100,000,000,000 $80,000,000,000 $60,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $ CMBS Unknown User/Other Equity Fund Institutional Public Private * Through Q Source: Real Capital Analytics CBRE Page 12

13 U.S. Cap Rate Forecast by Property Type Cap Rate, % Forecast Retail Multifamily Industrial Office Hotel: Full Service Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 13

14 Raleigh-Durham Spotlight

15 Vacancy Moving From Cyclic Highs With vacancy high relative to long-term trends, rents are still under pressure. US 2011Q4 Past Cyclic High Natural Rate Year Back to "Natural Rate" Raleigh Office 16% 16.8/ to % Industrial 13.5% 14.6/ to % Retail 13.2% 13.3/ to % Multifamily 5.3% 7.4/ to % Full Service Hotels 35.8% 43/ to % Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA), 4Q2011; Karnes Research CBRE Page 15

16 Raleigh Durham Historical Transaction Volume Millions of Dollars ALL PROPERTY TYPES EST Source: CBRE CBRE Page 16

17 Raleigh-Durham Investment Sales 2011 Sales Comparison in Millions $93.08 $ $ $ Apartment Office Retail Industrial/Flex Total Transaction Value: $1,554.3M Total Transactions: 79 Source: CBRE CBRE Page 17

18 Millions of Dollars Raleigh Durham Apartment Transaction Volume EST Source: CBRE CBRE Page 18

19 Apartment Highlights Oberlin Court, Raleigh DATE November 2011 SELLER BUYER Northwestern Mutual Life Prudential Financial SF 374,825 YEAR BUILT 2008 SALE PRICE $72,250,000 PRICE/SF $ The Tribute, Raleigh DATE October 2011 SELLER BUYER UDR, Inc. Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers SF 307,663 YEAR BUILT 2010 SALE PRICE $56,200,000 PRICE/SF $ CBRE Page 19

20 Raleigh Durham Office Transaction Volume Millions of Dollars EST Source: CBRE CBRE Page 20

21 Office Highlights Carolina Place, Raleigh DATE January 2012 SELLER BUYER Invesco New Boston Fund SF 99,818 YEAR BUILT 1985 SALE PRICE $15,575,000 PRICE/SF $ Trinity Place, Raleigh DATE December 2011 SELLER BUYER Teufel Trinity Place, LLC Brookdale Group SF 111,903 YEAR BUILT 2001 SALE PRICE $15,274,000 PRICE/SF $ CBRE Page 21

22 Raleigh Durham Retail Transaction Volume Millions of Dollars EST Source: CBRE CBRE Page 22

23 Retail Highlights White Oak Crossing, Garner DATE August 2011 SELLER BUYER Collett Associates Inland American Real Estate Trust SF 549,000 YEAR BUILT 2002 SALE PRICE $95,000,000 PRICE/SF $ Brennan Station Shops, Raleigh DATE November 2011 SELLER BUYER Hawthorne Retail Partners Kimco Realty SF 126,949 YEAR BUILT 1999 SALE PRICE $29,400,000 PRICE/SF $ CBRE Page 23

24 Millions of Dollars Raleigh Durham Warehouse/Flex Transaction Volume EST. Source: CBRE CBRE Page 24

25 Industrial/Warehouse Highlights Greenfield North Business Park, Garner DATE September 2011 SELLER BUYER Craig Davis Properties Duke Realty SF 397,332 YEAR BUILT 2004 SALE PRICE $31,000,000 PRICE/SF $78.00 CBRE Page 25

26 A Closer Look at Office

27 Sq. Ft. per Worker versus the Price of Space - Office Occupied Multi-Tenant and Single Tenant Space Per Office-Using Employee, (SF/worker) TW Real Rent, $/SF Forecast SF/Worker TW Real Rent Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 27

28 Office Rental Trends: Still Losing Ground on Renewals TW Rent Index, $/sf Gain on Lease Rollo Growth in Income at Renewal TW Rent Index Average Rent in Place Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 28

29 Average Annual Revenue Growth - Office 12% Av era ge An Average nu Annual al Revenue Growth en % ue Gr ow th % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% New York Boston San Jose Los Angeles Seattle Newark San Francisco Washington, DC San Diego Sum of Markets Miami Phoenix Portland Chicago Dallas Minneapolis Austin Philadelphia Baltimore Kansas City Oakland DenverRaleigh Charlotte Houston St. Louis Orange County Detroit Atlanta Pittsburgh Sacramento Transaction Cap Rate, % Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 29

30 A Closer Look at Multi-Family

31 F Homeownership Rate is Likely to Continue Declining in Homeownership Rate, % Renter Households, Millions Too many investors are focusing on just this trend when evaluating prospects for apartment performance. While decline in homeownership does boost the overall rental demand, employment and household growth are more important for apartments. With fewer workers and households and reduced incomes, potential apartment demand cannot be realized Homeownership Rate, % Renter Households, Millions Sources: Bureau of the Census (Housing Vacancy Survey), CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 31

32 Vacancy Rate Expected to Remain Near Lows Through Absorption and Completions, Units x 1,000 Vacancy Rate, % Forecast Completions Net Absorption Vacancy Rate (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q CBRE Page 32

33 Average Annual Revenue Growth % Multi-Housing Comparison (Rent*Occupancy) Next 5 Years Austin San Francisco Oakland Los Angeles Atlanta Las Vegas Phoenix Orlando Minneapolis Denver Boston Raleigh Fort Worth Houston Dallas Charlotte Portland Philadelphia Sum of Markets Seattle Riverside Miami San Diego Fort Lauderdale New York City Washington, DC Chicago Tampa Cincinnati Baltimore Detroit Orange County Newark Transaction Cap Rate, % MSAs with Largest Home Pricing Decline Source: CBRE EA Outlooks, 2011 Q3 CBRE Page 33

34 In Summary Be patient. Be positioned. Feel fortunate to be in the Triangle. The jobs are on the way, just not in Technology and healthcare investment will lead the way. CBRE Page 34

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