International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes
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1 International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes Larry Boorstein, Project Manager, AECOM Prepared for Shifting International Trade Routes, January 29-30, 2015, Tampa, presented by AAPA in cooperation with the U.S. Maritime Administration hosted by the Port of Tampa Bay. January 29, 2015
2 World merchandise trade World merchandise trade Annual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year P 2015P Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 2
3 World real GDP at market exchange rates World real GDP at market exchange rates Annual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year P 2015P Rest of world Asia North America South and Central America Europe Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 3
4 World merchandise imports World Merchandise Imports Annual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year South and Central America Asia North America Europe P 2015P Rest of world Source: Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 4
5 World merchandise exports World Merchandise Exports Annual Percent Growth Rate vs. Year Asia Rest of world South and Central America Europe P 2015P North America Source: Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 5
6 Real GDP growth 10 Real GDP, percent change from previous year except interest rates vs. year 8 India e 2015f 2016f 2017f China Indonesia Brazil South Africa United States United Kingdom Euro Area Japan Russia -4 Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 6
7 Real GDP growth, OECD and BRICS World real GDP, percent change from previous year: OECD and BRICS vs. year e 2015f 2016f 2017f OECD real GDP BRICS real GDP Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 7
8 World real GDP and world trade volume growth 6 World real GDP and World trade volume annual percentage growth rate vs. year e 2015f 2016f 2017f World real GDP (2010 PPP weights) World trade volume Ratio trade growth to GDP growth Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 8
9 GDP at current prices by country Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014 through Knoema February 2, 2015 Page 9
10 GDP based on PPP valuation Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014 through Knoema February 2, 2015 Page 10
11 Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 11
12 Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 12
13 Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 13
14 Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 14
15 Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 15
16 Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 16
17 World GDP in current USD 8E+13 GDP by G-7, BRICS and Other World, (USD) 7E+13 6E+13 5E+13 4E+13 3E+13 Other World BRICS G-7 2E+13 1E+13 0 Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 17
18 G-7 GDP in current USD GDP by G-7 Countries and Year, (USD) 4E E+13 3E E+13 2E E+13 1E+13 5E+12 0 Canada Italy United Kingdom France Germany Japan United States Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 18
19 BRICS GDP in current USD 2E E E E E+13 1E+13 8E+12 6E+12 4E+12 2E+12 0 GDP by BRICS Countries and Year, (USD) South Asia India Russian Federation Brazil China Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 19
20 EU, US, China and Japan GDP in current USD 2E+13 GDP EU, US, China and Japan, (USD) 1.5E+13 1E+13 5E+12 European Union United States China Japan Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 20
21 Share of World GDP, 2003 Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2003 BRICS, 10.4% Other World, 25.8% G-7, 63.7% Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 21
22 Share of World GDP, 2013 Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2013 Other World, 30.3% G-7, 46.1% BRICS, 23.6% Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 22
23 Country Shares of World GDP, 2003 SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2003 Rest of World Australia Canada India Russian Federation Brazil United States Japan China European Union Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 23
24 Country Shares of World GDP, 2013 SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2013 Rest of World United States Australia Canada India China Russian Federation Brazil Japan European Union Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 24
25 GDP by Country, GDP by Country and Area, Rest of World Australia Canada India Russian Federation Brazil Japan European Union China United States 0 1E+13 2E Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 25
26 United States merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 26
27 United States merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 27
28 United States services trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 28
29 China merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 29
30 China merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 30
31 Canada merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 31
32 Canada merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 32
33 Mexico merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 33
34 Mexico merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 34
35 Germany merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 35
36 Germany merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 36
37 France merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 37
38 France merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 38
39 United Kingdom merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 39
40 United Kingdom merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 40
41 Italy merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 41
42 Italy merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 42
43 Japan merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 43
44 Japan merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 44
45 Brazil merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 45
46 Brazil merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 46
47 Russian Federation, merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 47
48 Russian Federation merchandise trade by region (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 48
49 India merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 49
50 India merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 50
51 South Africa merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 51
52 South Africa merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 52
53 Saudi Arabia merchandise trade, (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 53
54 Saudi Arabia merchandise trade by region, 2012 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 54
55 Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining and agricultural products (USD billions) Source: World Trade Organization, International Trade Statistics, 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 55
56 Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining, and agricultural products (USD billions) Presentation Title February 2, 2015 Page 56
57 Leading merchandise traders, exports vs. imports, 2013 (USD billions) Source: World Trade Organization, International Trade Statistics, 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 57
58 World surface transportation routes Source: Trader2Trader February 2, 2015 Page 58
59 Panama Canal Expansion Project Presentation Title February 2, 2015 Page 59
60 U.S. intermodal and interstate highway corridors Source: Maritime Administration February 2, 2015 Page 60
61 Routes from Northeast Asia to Major North American destinations Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff, Panama Canal Expansion Study, 2012 February 2, 2015 Page 61
62 Nicaragua Canal Source: HKND Group and ERM, Nicaragua Canal Project Description, December 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 62
63 Nicaragua Canal dimensions Source: HKND Group and ERM, Nicaragua Canal Project Description, December 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 63
64 Nicaragua Canal target vessels Source: HKND Group and ERM, Nicaragua Canal Project Description, December 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 64
65 Panama and Nicaragua canal design vessels and largest containerships Canal design vessels vs. largest containerships Design vessels Panama Nicaragua APM CSCL MSC Canal Canal McKinney Globe Oscar Maersk TEU 12,000 25,000 18,340 19,100 19,224 Length m Width m Draft m _ February 2, 2015 Page 65
66 Containership fleet 4500 Containership fleet by teu capacity, ('000 teu) teu teu teu teu teu teu Feeder Hdy/Sub-P Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Source: Clarkson February 2, 2015 Page 66
67 Containership orderbook 1800 Containership orderbook by teu capacity, ('000 teu) teu teu teu teu teu teu Feeder Hdy/SubP Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Source: Clarkson February 2, 2015 Page 67
68 APM McKinney Maersk Triple E 18,340 TEU ship 400 m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft _ February 2, 2015 Page 68
69 CSCL Globe 19,100 TEU ship m long x 58.6 m wide x 16 m draft _ February 2, 2015 Page 69
70 MSC Oscar 19,224 TEU containership m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft _ February 2, 2015 Page 70
71 Suez Canal Source: World Shipping Council February 2, 2015 Page 71
72 Suez Canal expansion project Source: Reuters, theloadstar.co.uk through Al Arabiya February 2, 2015 Page 72
73 New Suez Canal project Source: Suez Canal Authority February 2, 2015 Page 73
74 Northern Sea Route vs. Southern Sea Route via Suez _ February 2, 2015 Page 74
75 Arctic ice, (million sq. km) Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center in Council on Foreign Relations, The Thawing Arctic February 2, 2015 Page 75
76 Northern Sea Route from China to Europe and Northwest Passage from China to U.S. East Coast Source: Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration February 2, 2015 Page 76
77 Trans-Siberian railway Source: TransSiberian Info February 2, 2015 Page 77
78 China to Europe via Kazakhstan railway _ February 2, 2015 Page 78
79 Block Train Service China - Europe Source: China Daily, February 2, 2015 Page 79
80 Bering Straits rail tunnel Source: InterBering LLC February 2, 2015 Page 80
81 Crude oil prices, Source: NASDAQ.com, January 26,2015 February 2, 2015 Page 81
82 Expansion of Cuba trade Source: crowley.com; reuters.com February 2, 2015 Page 82
83 Thank you. Larry Boorstein Cell AECOM Technical Services, Inc Wilson Blvd 8 th Fl Arlington VA January 29, 2015
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