Kryzys fiskalny w Europie Strategie wyjścia Ryszard Petru dyrektor ds. strategii główny ekonomista BRE Banku

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1 Kryzys fiskalny w Europie Strategie wyjścia Ryszard Petru dyrektor ds. strategii główny ekonomista BRE Banku 110 seminarium BRE-CASE Warszaw awa, 30 września

2 Outline Pre-crisis - Loose fiscal policy in some European countries - No reaction to violation of Stability and Growth Pact - Falling competitiveness of some EU economies Crisis - Additional generous anti-crisis fiscal stimulus - Delayed market signals - Blind rating agencies 2

3 Agenda 1. Governments 2. Supervisory institutions: European Commission 3. Financial markets, rating agencies 3

4 1. Governments 2. Supervisory institutions: European Commission 3. Financial markets, rating agencies 4

5 Fiscal crisis emerged from financial crisis 5-Y EUR CDS rates (bps) Financial crisis Stabilization Fiscal crisis Lehman Brothers bankruptcy Dubai on the verge of bankruptcy 400 \ Greece Spain Portugal Italy Poland Germany Source: Bloomberg. 5

6 Large divergence of fiscal policies within the EU Budget deficit (% GDP) and GDP growth (%) 8,0 Finland 8,0 Greece ,0-8,0-12,0-12,0-16, Budget deficit (% GDP) GDP growth (%) -16, Budget deficit (% GDP) GDP growth (%) 8,0 Germany 8,0 Hungary ,0-8,0-12,0-12,0-16, Budget deficit (% GDP) GDP growth (%) -16, Budget deficit (% GDP) GDP growth (%) Source: Eurostat. 6

7 GDP fall and loose fiscal policy led to sudden fiscal deterioration 55.0 Revenues and expenditures of general government (% GDP) Greece Spain Expenditures UK Revenues 55.0 Expenditures Poland Revenues Expenditures Revenues Expenditures Revenues Source: Eurostat. 7

8 resulting in excessive budget deficits Budget deficit (% GDP) 16, Change of budget deficit between 2007 and (% GDP) 12, ,0 6, EU average 2, , IRE GRE SPA POR LAT LIT POL SLO BEL CZE ITL HUN GER EST Source: Eurostat. 8

9 and sharp rise of public debt Public debt (% GDP) Change of public debt between 2007 and (% GDP) EU average ITL GRE BEL HUN POR GER IRE SPA POL LAT SLO CZE LIT EST Source: Eurostat. 9

10 Without fiscal consolidation debt will continue rising Forecast of public debt to GDP ratio under various budget deficit levels* 120 Poland 120 Hungary ` Czech Rep. ` % GDP 3% GDP 1% GDP % GDP 3% GDP 1% GDP Germany * Under the assumption of GDP growth rate at its long-term level (IMF estimates). Source: IMF WEO April 2010, Eurostat, BRE estimates. ` % GDP 3% GDP 1% GDP ` % GDP 3% GDP 1% GDP Hungary has been tightening fiscal policy within its agreement with the IMF. Germany is threatened with faster public debt growth than CEE countries due to its lower potential GDP growth it has already taken steps to reduce budget deficit (national debt brake rule). 10

11 1. Governments 2. Supervisory institutions: European Commission 3. Financial markets, rating agencies 11

12 Persistent violation of S&GP and no reaction from the EU Budget balance and government debt (% GDP) Germany Greece Maastricht level (3% GDP) Maastricht level (60% GDP) Budget balance (RA) Italy Government debt (LA) Budget balance (RA) Government debt (LA) Hungary Maastricht level (3% GDP) Maastricht level (60% GDP) Budget balance (RA) Government debt (LA) Budget balance (RA) Government debt (LA) Source: Eurostat. 12

13 Greece submiting data of questionable quality 0 Budget balance reported by Greece vs. Eurostat estimates from 2010 (% GDP) -2-4 Maastricht level (3% GDP) Eurostat Eurostat Greece is a classical example of a country with excessive deficit. Additionally the quality of its deficit statistics was problematic. Year of data publication Source: Eurostat, European Commission. 13

14 Loss of competitiveness warning signal indicating future fiscal risks 135 REER (ULC defl. 1999=100) Germany Ireland Greece Spain Italy Portugal Unsustainable growth pattern and inflated GDP signalled future budget risks not captured by standard budget surveillance indicators. High revenue growth due to inflated growth was generally channelled into high expenditure spending. Warning signals were ignored as the financial turmoil started in 2007 and there were no significant budget measures after the outbreak of financial crisis in 4Q2008 to adjust to the falling level of revenues. Source: Eurostat. 14

15 1. Governments 2. Supervisory institutions: European Commission 3. Financial markets, rating agencies 15

16 Financial markets reacted too late 10Y bond yield (%) 1 12,0 1 8,0 6,0 2,0 Budget deficit (% GDP) Greece Portugal Ireland Germany - -8,0-12,0 Source: Bloomberg, Eurostat. -16, Greece Portugal Ireland Germany 16

17 Rating agencies missed fiscal risks as well Budget defict vs. souvereign debt rating* Greece Portugal Spain ,0-8,0-8,0-12,0-12,0-12,0-16, Budget deficit (% GDP) -16, Budget deficit (% GDP) -16, Budget deficit (% GDP) - Jan : downgrade to A- (from A), - Dec : downgrade to BBB+, - Apr 2010: downgrade to BB+. - Jan : downgrade to A+ (from AA-), - Apr 2010: downgrade to A-. - Jan : downgrade to AA+ (from AAA), - Apr 2010: downgrade to AA. * Long-term local currency debt rating according to S&P. Source: Eurostat, S&P. 17

18 International capital ties increase contagion risk International obligations at end- (USD bn) Greece 75 Greece owes to Germany 45 USD bn 15 Germany Portugal 238 France UK 114 Spain Italy Italy owes to France ca. 20% of France s GDP 60 Ireland Source: Based on NYTimes, BIS. 18

19 Conclusions Unsustainable and inflated growth and excessively loose fiscal policy led to sudden deterioration of fiscal position as an aftermath of financial turmoil Failure of Stability and Growth Pact was one of the causes of fiscal turmoil Financial market turned out to be short-sighted, ignoring long term risks 19