The Virginia Economy: Labor Markets and Workforce

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1 The Virginia Economy: Labor Markets and Workforce April 4, 2017 Sonya Ravindranath Waddell Regional Economist Research Department The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Overview The Virginia Population Population Growth Population Distribution by Age/Region Employment in Virginia Employment Growth by Industry/Region Industry Structure Wages and Salaries Educational Attainment Additional Slides on Unemployment and Labor Force 2

3 Total Population Growth Annualized % change, 5-year 2.5 United States Virginia Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 3

4 Virginia Population Growth by Age Annualized % change, 5-years 5 4 Under Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 4

5 Virginia Population by Age Population (Thousands) 2500 Under Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 5

6 Total Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics

7 Average Annual Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics

8 Payroll Employment YoY % Chg (SA) 4 U.S. Virginia February 2017 US: 1.6% VA: 1.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8

9 Virginia Industry Structure Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 2016 U.S. Virginia Employment Share (Percent) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 9

10 Virginia Industry Growth February 2017 Total Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government U.S. Virginia YoY % Chg (SA) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 10

11 Indexed Employment Index December2007 = Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Professional & Business Services Government Financial Activities Total Trade, Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Information Construction Mining & Logging Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 11

12 VA Job Change in Recession by Industry Total Natural Resources & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Total Government Job Loss in Recession (December 2007 to January 2010) Job Gain in Recovery (January 2010 to September 2016) Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 12

13 VA Average Weekly Wage by Industry 2016 Q3 Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional, and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Unclassified Government $380 $822 $1,046 $1,111 $811 $1,787 $1,414 $1,551 $944 $824 $878 $1, ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Average Weekly Wage ($) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 13

14 MSA Employment Growth February 2017 Charlottesville 2.9 Harrisonburg 2.7 Northern Virginia 2.2 Winchester 1.9 US 1.6 Virginia Blacksburg Roanoke Lynchburg Richmond Virginia Beach YoY% Change (SA) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 14

15 Educational Attainment Bachelor's Degree or Higher Percent of Population Source: Census Bureau, USDA Economic Research Service 15

16 Educational Attainment in Virginia Virginia Percent of Population Less Than High School High School Some College College Source: Census Bureau and USDA Economic Research Service 16

17 Median Earnings 2015 Population 25+ Median Earnings Graduate or Professional Degree $67,286 $78,049 Bachelor's Degree $55,799 $50,930 Some College or Associate's Degree $35,656 $34,377 High School or Equivalent $29,674 $29,004 Virginia Less than High School $22,657 $21,320 United States Source: Census Bureau 17

18 Labor Data by Education 2015 Population 25+ Unemployment Rate (%) Labor force Participation Rate (%) Bachelor's Degree or Higher Some College or Associate's Degree High School Graduate or Equivalent Less than High School Graduate Source: Census Bureau (author s calculation for unemployment and labor force participation) 18

19 Summary Population growth has been falling in VA and the U.S. and both populations have been aging. The Virginia population is increasingly concentrated in Northern VA, Richmond, and Hampton Roads (the crescent ), which also serves as the employment base of the state. Most of the job gains have been in (higher average wage-earning) professional and business services and (lower wage-earning) leisure/hospitality and education/health services. Virginia is relatively educated, which contributes to stronger labor market outcomes in the state. 19

20 Questions? The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System. 20

21 Unemployment Rate Percent 11 U.S. Virginia February 2017 US: 4.7% VA: 3.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 21

22 MSA Unemployment Percent Unemployment Trends January 2016 January Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 22

23 County Unemployment 23

24 Labor Force Participation Rate Percent February 2017 US: 63.0% VA: 65.2% U.S. Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 24

25 Labor Force Participation Rate in the United States Change (+/-) in Participation Rate: January 2000 to February Total 16 + Total Men Women Total 55 and older Women 55 and older Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 25

26 Virginia Labor Force and Working Age Population Annual % Change, 4 year moving avg Labor Force Population Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 26

27 Employment/Population Ratio Percent of Population (16+) 68 United States Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 27

28 Total Wage and Salary Growth YoY % Chg 10 U.S. Virginia Q: 2016 US: 4.6% VA: 3.6% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics 28

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