Small Business Dynamics and Job Creation. Small Business Numbers, Pretty Pictures and Not So Pretty Pictures

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1 Small Business Dynamics and Job Creation Or Small Business Numbers, Pretty Pictures and Not So Pretty Pictures Brian Headd Office of Advocacy U.S. Small Business Administration

2 Employers 8,000,000 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 Number of Businesses Non-employers Employers Nonemployers 24,000,000 22,000,000 20,000,000 18,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 Est. 16,000,000 14,000,000 4,000, ,000,000 Note: Employer 2009 and 2010 figures estimates using Bureau of Labor Statistics, BED trends. Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, from data provided by U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Statistics of U.S. Businesses and Nonemployer Statistics.

3 Start Years for 6.7 Million Employer Establishments, 2005 (thousands) Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy from data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics.

4 Establishment Dynamics, q2 (thousands of establishment, seasonally adjusted) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Births Deaths Expansions Contractions About half of all establishments do not change employment from quarter to quarter and about 85 percent of establishment turnover is small business turnover Source: Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small Business Administration from data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics.

5 Percent of establishments Cumulative Survival Rates for Establishments by Birth Year Years in existence Source: Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small Business Administration from data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics.

6 100% 90% Establishment Survival Rates: One- and Five-Year Rates by Birth Year, Five-year rate One-year rate 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Business Dynamics

7 Share of Private-Sector Net New Jobs by Firm Size 500+, 34.8% <20, 22.4% , 42.8% q2 (16.1 million net new jobs) Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, from data provided by U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics of U.S. Businesses and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics.

8 Small Businesses Share of Employment, Percent Total Manufacturing (SIC) Manufacturing (NAICS) Retail Trade (SIC) Retail Trade (NAICS) Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, from data provided by U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Statistics of U.S. Businesses which covers the private-sector.

9 Employment Change by Size of Firm (thousands, seasonally adjusted) , employees employees 500+ employees 1, ,200 Employment Changes by Size of Establishment Change (thousands, seasonally adjusted) employees 5-19 employees 20+ employees Source: Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small Business Administration from data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics.

10 Number of employees Average Employment per Establishment by Birth Year Years in existence Source: Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small Business Administration from data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics.

11 Mean Employment Level for Firm Birth Year Cohorts, (millions) to to to 20 Years in existence Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy from data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics.

12 Percent Small Business Bank Lending, Tightening loan standards Stronger demand for loans Note: Change in percentage of respondents from the previous period. Source: Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small Business Administration from data provided by the Federal Reserve Board Senior Loan Officer Survey.

13 Billions of 2010 dollars Small Business Loans Loans under $1 million, fiscal year Source: Federal Reserve Board, Call Report data. Billions of 2010 dollars (a) Loans SBA Loans 504 Loans Source: U.S. Small Business Administration

14 Points to Remember Big employment expanders (gazelles) are needed We need bigger start-ups, not necessarily more Momentum for small firms is going in the right direction Contact info: Brian Headd ,

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