The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

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1 The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017

2 What s Driving the Global Improvement? Accommodative monetary policies and supportive financial conditions Fiscal policies have shifted from restraint to mild stimulus Improved business and consumer confidence Commodity exporters emerge from weakness or recession, while commodity importers remain on an upswing 2

3 The Global Outlook: Improvement to be Sustained Real GDP Growth (Y/Y) Global Output Growth (PPP weights) US: a modest step up in growth Euro Area: widespread gains Japan: firmer domestic demand UK: slower growth amidst uncertainty China: steady expansion most likely India: solid gains Russia: expansion gains some traction Brazil: modest recovery Source: Consensus Forecasts for 2016, PIIE for Annual average over annual average. 3

4 The US Outlook: Steady Growth with Low Inflation 10 Percent Unemployment Rate () 3.5 Percent Core PCE Inflation (/) Forecast Real GDP Growth (/) Unemployment () PCE Price Inflation (/) Core PCE Price Inflation (/) Note: Gray-shaded areas represent 70% confidence bands

5 Still Expecting Some Fiscal Stimulus Impact in FRB/US of Assumed Fiscal Package Percent difference in level of real GDP relative to baseline 1.2 Spending effect Tax effect Source: FRB/US model, Author / Monetary Policy Analytics. Tax cuts of $120 bn per year The forecast without stimulus Real GDP baseline no fiscal stimulus Unemployment rate baseline no fiscal stimulus Core PCE inflation baseline no fiscal stimulus 1.8 Taylor rule turned on Defense and nondefense spending increase of $40 bn per year Path of Fed funds rate about 50 b.p. lower 5

6 Crosscurrents for Consumption Light Motor Vehicle Sales Net Worth to Disposable Income 22 Mn units, SAAR Source: BEA and Federal Reserve via FRED. 6

7 Housing Continues Slow Upward Trend Mn units, SAAR Total Housing Starts and Home Sales New privately owned housing units started (quarterly) New single-family houses sold (monthly) Equil. Housing Starts = 1.6 mn units H F S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index Percent change from year ago Source: Census and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC via FRED, Author / Monetary Policy Analytics. 7

8 Business Investment Shows Signs of Life Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft New orders Shipments Bn USD Business Fixed Investment, Contribution to Percent Change (/) Percentage points Intellectual property products Equipment Structures Business Fixed Inv Source: Census via FRED, BEA, Author / Monetary Policy Analytics. 8

9 1/ /2005 7/2006 4/2007 1/ /2008 7/2009 4/2010 1/ /2011 7/2012 4/2013 1/ /2014 7/2015 4/2016 1/ A More Supportive External Environment is Helping Real Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index Percentage points Net Exports of Goods and Services, Contribution to Growth in Real GDP H F Source: Federal Reserve and BEA via FRED. 9

10 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul The Labor Market Has Tightened: And Will Tighten Further Monthly rate, thousands Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 3-month average 6-month average Official and Expanded Unemployment Rate Share of labor force U6 Expanded unemployment rate U3 Official unemployment rate Note: Shaded area is range of payroll gains consistent with growth of the labor force. Source: BLS via FRED. Note: Shaded areas represent ranges of respective unemployment rates consistent with full employment. 10

11 Just How Tight Is It? 4.5 Percent of labor force Job Openings 1.20 Index of Recruiting Intensity per Vacancy Source: BLS and DHI Group via FRED. 11

12 A Hot Labor Market is Producing Benefits 7 Part-Time Employment for Economic Reasons Share of labor force 67 Percent Labor Force Participation average Source: BLS via FRED. 12

13 Some Signs of Wage Pressure Admittedly Faint Percent change from year ago Labor Compensation ECI 2.2 AHE Atlanta H F Atlanta Fed Median Wage Growth Employment Cost Index: Compensation: Private Industry Workers Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private Note: Atlanta Fed indicator was calculated as a quarterly average of monthly data. For Q3 2017, it was calculated as the average of July and August Source: BLS via FRED, Atlanta Fed, Author / Monetary Policy Analytics. 13

14 Signs of Price Pressure Even Fainter Consumer Price Inflation month percent change Core CPI Median CPI Underlying Inflation Gauge: Full data set measure Source: BLS and FRB Cleveland via FRED, FRB New York. 14

15 7/2009 1/2010 7/2010 1/2011 7/2011 1/2012 7/2012 1/2013 7/2013 1/2014 7/2014 1/2015 7/2015 1/2016 7/2016 1/2017 7/2017 Inflation Expectations: Steady to Lower 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate SPF 10-year PCE SPF 10-year CPI Source: Bloomberg, FRB Philadelphia via Haver Analytics. 15

16 Inflation: A Gradual Return to Target Consumer Price Inflation month percent change Headline PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation H F Target Source: BEA via FRED, Author / Monetary Policy Analytics. 16

17 The Fed Slowly Removes Accommodation Effective Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 4.5 $Trillion The Balance Sheet Shrinks For a Time Percent H F Agency MBS Total Securities Portfolio Treasury Securities Source: Federal Reserve, Author / Monetary Policy Analytics. 17

18 Challenges for Monetary Policy Guiding inflation back to 2 percent Avoiding the build up of financial imbalances A substantial change in Fed leadership A tilt toward easier policy 18

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