MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

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1 MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

2 INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history. Consequently, we have not yet seen the excesses and imbalances built up as much as we witnessed around the peak in previous cycles. Thus, I expect the U.S. economy to continue growing at a modest pace Labor market is improving. Household balance sheets are strong. Gasoline prices dropped 28% in 2015 from 2014, and averaged $2.10 through July in Interest rates are at historical lows. These developments have created a perfect environment for the auto industry, leading to record high vehicle sales U.S. auto sales reached a record high of 17.9M, including medium and heavy duty trucks, in We expect 2016 will be another record year In the longer term, vehicle demand will remain healthy as population grows and vehicle ownership rate recovers

3 THIS IS A VERY SLOW ECONOMIC RECOVERY Real GDP (Billions, $2009) 20,000 Current Recovery 1975 Recovery 1983 Recovery 1991 Recovery 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GM calculations

4 LABOR MARKET RECOVERY HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY WEAK. IT TOOK MORE THAN 5 YEARS TO RETURN TO THE EMPLOYMENT LEVEL OF Employment Gain Unemployment Rate U-6 Unemployment Rate Employment Gain (Thousand) Unemployment Rate (%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 FISCAL POLICY HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT DRAG IN THIS RECOVERY, WHILE MONETARY POLICY WAS SUPPORTIVE Government Contribution to Real GDP Growth Effective Fed Funds Rate 2.5% 25% 2.0% 20% 1.5% 1.0% 15% 0.5% 10% 0.0% -0.5% 5% -1.0% % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board

6 HOUSING RECOVERY IS MISSING IN THIS CYCLE, PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF THE BUBBLE IN THE SECTOR IN THE EARLY 2000 S 7.0% 6.5% Residential Investment % GDP 2,500 Housing Starts (SAAR, Thousand Units) 12-Month Moving Average 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2,000 1,500 1, % 2.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 AUTO SALES HAVE BEEN A BRIGHT SPOT IN THIS RECOVERY AND TRACKED PREVIOUS RECOVERIES Vehicle Sales 20 Current Recovery 1975 Recovery 1983 Recovery 1991 Recovery 18 Units in Millions Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GM calculations

8 SUVs AND CUVs HAVE OUTPERFORMED Market Share 80% Car Crossover/SUV Truck 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: GM Sales Reporting

9 HELPED BY THE LOWER OIL PRICES West Texas Intermediate (USD Per Barrel) Annual Data CYTD YTD Source: Energy Information Administration. Note: Shading Indicates Recession, Annual Data excluding 2016 which is calendar year to date.

10 OIL PRICES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOWER FOR LONGER 250 WTI (Real, 1985 Peak = 100) Months Shale, Iran Nov North Sea June Source: Energy Information Administration

11 THE IMBALANCES THAT USUALLY BUILD UP AT THIS STAGE OF RECOVERY ARE NOT VISIBLE HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS REMAIN HEALTHY Household Debt as % of DPI Household Net Worth as % of DPI Household Debt % DPI Household Net Worth % DPI Source: Federal Reserve Board

12 INFLATION REMAINS LOW CPI Core CPI 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation (Percent Change YoY)

13 U.S. DOLLAR HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THE FED ENDED QUANTITATIVE EASING Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of the USD (Jan-97=100) The Fed Ended QE Source: Federal Reserve Board

14 WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVERSEAS DOESN T HELP EITHER LARGE EMERGING ECONOMIES HAVE SLOWED DOWN OR ARE IN RECESSION 12% BRIC Real GDP Growth Y/Y 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: National Bureau of Statistics

15 EUROPE IS RECOVERING BUT AT A VERY GRADUAL PACE 6% EU28 Real GDP Growth (Y/Y) 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities

16 BREXIT ADDED NEW RISKS AND UNCERTAINTY TO THE UK AND EUROPEAN OUTLOOK 1.50 USD/GBP Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Source: Wall Street Journal

17 PERFORMANCE OF GLOBAL VEHICLE SALES CLOSELY TRACKING ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS 30 China, Western Europe, U.S. Vehicle Sales Western Europe North America China Millions Millions BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Vehicle Sales Brazil India Russia China (2nd axes) United States (2nd axes) Millions Source: GM Sales Reporting 0

18 AUTO INDUSTRY IS UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, FOR BETTER 3,200 3,150 3,100 3,050 3,000 Miles Traveled (Billion Miles, 12-Month Rolling Sum) 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% Share of Vehicle Sales by Age Group ,950 2,900 2,850 2,800 2,750 2, % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Under >=70 Source: Federal Highway Administration Source: J.D.Power/PIN, General Motors

19 NEW AND INNOVATIVE MOBILITY OPPORTUNITIES, SUCH AS RIDESHARING AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, ARE CHANGING THE CENTURY-OLD INDUSTRY

20 SUMMARY The U.S. is an island of stability in a turbulent world. We expect the U.S. economy will continue to grow at a modest pace with auto sales remaining at record high in 2016 Low oil and gasoline prices will continue to support sales of larger vehicles, especially crossovers Long-term demand for vehicles remains very promising. We don t see that this time is different Contrary to popular belief that young people will not buy vehicles, they are coming to the market as a major group of buyers New mobility opportunities such as ridesharing and autonomous vehicles will increase demand for trips by providing mobility to those who are restricted otherwise and, therefore, presents a new opportunity to the industry

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