GLOBAL FISSILE MATERIAL REPORT 2015

Transcription

1 GLOBAL FISSIL MATRIAL RPORT 2015 NUCLAR WAPON AND FISSIL MATRIAL STOCKPILS AND PRODUCTION Zia Mian Alexander Glaser Revision 3 NPT Review Conference United Nations, New York, May 8, 2015

2 ABOUT TH IPFM MISSION To provide the technical basis for policy initiatives to reduce global stocks of military and civilian fissile materials stablished in 2006, IPFM has 29 members from 18 states Publications: Global Fissile Material Reports, research reports, and country studies and 2

3 GLOBAL FISSIL MATRIAL RPORTS 2008: Scope and Verification of a Fissile Material (Cutoff) Treaty 2009: A Path to Nuclear Disarmament 2010: Balancing the Books: [Weapon State] Production and Stocks 2011: Nuclear Weapon and Fissile Material Stockpiles and Production 2013: Increasing Transparency 3

4 NUCLAR WAPONS AND FISSIL MATRIALS

5 70 YARS OF TH NUCLAR AG HU AND PLUTONIUM FIRST PRODUCD BY U.S. MANHATTAN PROJCT Oak Ridge K-25 enrichment plant, Source: U.S. Department of nergy Hanford B plutonium production reactor, Source: hanford.gov 5

6 70 YARS OF TH NUCLAR AG SMALLR, LIGHTR, MOR DSTRUCTIV First atomic bomb, July 1945 Source: Los Alamos National Laboratory and atomland-on-mars.com U.S. W80-4 cruise missile warhead Source: NNSA/Sandia National Laboratory 6

7 GLOBAL NUCLAR WAPON INVNTORY ,000 GLOBAL NUCLAR WARHAD INVNTORY, 2014 Weapons or weapon equivalents 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States Russia All others Warheads accountable under New START Global nuclear weapons inventories and warheads in dismantlement queue (yellow) Additional warheads in stockpile or reserve 1,597 3,103 2,500 1,582 ~ 2,920 ~ 3,000 n/a ~ 1, Warheads in dismantlement queue About 12,500 nuclear warheads are not currently captured by arms control agreements c. 15,700 warheads Status of World Nuclear Forces, Federation of American Scientists, fas.org, April

8 MODRN THRMONUCLAR WARHAD Typically contains an average 3 4 kg of plutonium and kg highly enriched uranium Adapted from Final Report of the Select Committee on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the Peoples Republic of China ( Cox Report ), U.S. House of Representatives, 3 January

9 HIGHLY NRICHD URANIUM

10 NUCLAR WAPONS AND FISSIL MATRIALS 140,000 GLOBAL INVNTORIS, TH CAS OF HIGHLY NRICHD URANIUM 120,000 Weapons or weapon equivalents 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Global nuclear weapons inventories and warheads in dismantlement queue (yellow) c. 38,000 additional weapon equivalents c. 15,700 warheads Status of World Nuclear Forces, Federation of American Scientists, fas.org, April 2015 Fissile material estimates and weapon-equivalents are authors estimates; assuming an average of 25 kg of highly enriched uranium per weapon 10

11 HU PRODUCTION FOR WAPONS HAS LARGLY NDD PRODUCTION PRIODS IN NPT WAPON STATS Country China Military HU production stopped 1987 (unofficial) France stopped 1996 Russia stopped 1989 United Kingdom United States stopped 1962 (but imports from United States) stopped 1992 (since 1964 for naval fuel only) 11

12 HU BLNDDOWN RUSSIA IN 2013 COMPLTD 20-YAR 500 TONS XCSS HU BLNDDOWN PROGRAM UNITD STATS HAS 36 TONS XCSS HU RMAINING TO DOWN-BLND BY Metric tons 500 UNITD STATS RUSSIA , International Panel of Fissile Materials, Princeton, NJ, forthcoming 12

13 GLOBAL HU STOCKPIL BY CATGORY, 2014 RDUCING CIVILIAN US HU STOCKPIL FOCUS OF THR NUCLAR SCURITY SUMMITS NAVAL HU FUL STOCKPIL IS FIV TIMS LARGR THAN CIVILIAN STOCKPIL Weapon equivalents 936 tons 664 tons 290 tons 57 tons 61 tons Military Naval xcess Civilian Disposed of Assumes 15 kg of highly enriched uranium per weapon equivalent 13

14 HIGHLY NRICHD URANIUM, 2014 GLOBAL STOCKPIL IS ABOUT 1345 TONS, ALMOST 99% IS IN WAPON STATS Metric tons liminated xcess (mostly for blend-down) *stimate Civilian material 517 MT Naval (irradiated fuel) Naval (fresh) Stockpile available for weapons 616 MT* 20 MT* 10 MT* 20 MT* 147 MT 57 MT 20 MT 100 MT 4.7 MT 1.4 MT 8.1 MT 152 MT 260 MT 16 MT* 26 MT* 3.2 MT* 0.3 MT* 3.1 MT* 11.7 MT 15 MT, International Panel of Fissile Materials, Princeton, NJ, forthcoming 14

15 HU CHALLNGS GLOBAL PRODUCTION RAT LSS THAN RAT OF DOWN-BLNDING FOR NOW CONTINUING PRODUCTION OF HU For military use: Pakistan, India, and possibly North Korea For civilian use: Russia, reportedly restarted in 2012 (for export) HU RACTOR FUL United States, United Kingdom, Russia, and India use HU naval fuel United States has over half of all HU naval reactors Russia has over half of all HU research reactors Sources: U.S. DO and U.S. Navy 15

16 WHO CAN MAK FISSIL MATRIAL TODAY NRICHMNT AND RPROCSSING FACILITIS WORLDWID R R R R R Gronau R R R R R R R R Rokkasho R R Natanz R Resende R nrichment/reprocessing in weapon state R nrichment/reprocessing in non-weapon state 16

17 PLUTONIUM

18 NUCLAR WAPONS AND FISSIL MATRIALS 140,000 GLOBAL INVNTORIS, TH CAS OF SPARATD PLUTONIUM Weapons or weapon equivalents 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Global nuclear weapons inventories and warheads in dismantlement queue (yellow) civilian plutonium c. 267 tons plutonium declared excess 89 tons military plutonium c. 142 tons c. 53,000 weapon equivalents c. 30,000 weapon equivalents c. 31,000 additional weapon equivalents c. 15,700 warheads Status of World Nuclear Forces, Federation of American Scientists, fas.org, April 2015 Fissile material estimates and weapon-equivalents are authors estimates; assumes an average of 3 kg for weapon-grade and 5 kg for reactor-grade plutonium per weapon 18

19 PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION FOR WAPONS HAS NDD IN NPT WAPON STATS Country China Plutonium production for weapons stopped 1991 (unofficial) France stopped 1992 Russia stopped 1994 United Kingdom stopped 1995 United States stopped

20 WAPONS PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION CONTINUS IN NON-NPT WAPON STATS All numbers are estimates Uncertainties of Israel s stockpile are particularly large Projections for India and Pakistan are based on current plans Metric tons ISRAL PAKISTAN 0.5 INDIA , International Panel of Fissile Materials, Princeton, NJ, forthcoming 20

21 CIVILIAN PLUTONIUM, VOLUTION OF DCLARD STOCKPIL (BY LOCATION) Others Japan Russia France United Kingdom Metric tons Numbers are based on the annual INFCIRC 549 Declarations and are for the end of the reported year Data not yet available 21

22 SPARATD PLUTONIUM, 2014 GLOBAL STOCKPIL IS ABOUT 500 TONS, MOR THAN HALF IS CIVILIAN AND THIS STOCK IS GROWING Metric tons Civilian stockpile, stored outside country (Dec. 2013) Civilian stockpile, stored in country (Dec. 2013) *stimate xcess military material Additional strategic stockpile 51.9 MT Military stockpile Disposed 34.0 MT 0.9 MT 4.4 MT 6 MT* 99.6 MT 49.3 MT 0.01 MT 60.2 MT 0.2 MT* 3.0 MT 3.4 MT* 36.3 MT 4.0 MT 10.8 MT 1.8 MT* 6 MT* 0.59 MT* 0.86 MT* 0.03 MT 0.17 MT* 88 MT* 3.2 MT 38 MT, International Panel of Fissile Materials, Princeton, NJ, forthcoming 22

23 PLUTONIUM CHALLNGS MILITARY AND CIVILIAN PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION CONTINUS Civilian production, use, and stockpiling would not be covered by FMCT Next nuclear security summit could focus on minimizing (civilian and excess military) plutonium stockpiles IMPLMNTING VIABL PLUTONIUM DISPOSAL OPTIONS MOX disposition path has proven extremely expensive Need alternative disposition options for both civilian and excess military material (based on cost, irreversibility, security, and verifiability) Sources: Getty Images (top) and UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (bottom) 23

24 LOOKING FORWARD A FISSIL MATRIAL AGNDA

25 Graphic by Alex Wellerstein, nuclearsecrey.com

26 FISSIL MATRIALS BY CATGORY GLOBAL STOCKPIL OF PLUTONIUM AND HIGHLY NRICHD URANIUM, 2014 Weapon equivalents 936 tons Plutonium Highly enriched uranium 267 tons 142 tons 664 tons 89 tons 290 tons 57 tons 61 tons 4.4 tons Military Naval xcess Civilian Disposed of Assumptions for weapon equivalents: 3 kg of weapon-grade plutonium, 5 kg of reactor-grade plutonium, 15 kg of highly enriched uranium (As of 2014, more than 200,000 weapon-equivalents in the global stockpile of fissile material) 26

27 LOOKING FORWARD A FISSIL MATRIAL AGNDA TO SUPPORT NUCLAR DISARMAMNT AND NONPROLIFRATION ABOUT 1845 TONS OF FISSIL MATRIAL AR IN TH GLOBAL STOCKPIL Major reductions of Cold War stockpiles of HU have been accomplished The stockpile of civilian plutonium is growing RDUCING UNCRTAINTIS: TOWARD NUCLAR TRANSPARNCY Fissile material declarations establish baselines and are required for deeper reductions in the nuclear arsenals DCLARING MOR MATRIAL XCSS No new material has been declared excess in past 10 years Warhead reductions have not been matched by declarations of new excess material 27

28 2010 NPT RVIW CONFRNC SLCTD ACTION ITMS FROM FINAL DOCUMNT Action 19: Transparency and Verification for Nuclear Disarmament All States agree on the importance of supporting cooperation among Governments, the United Nations, other international and regional organizations and civil society aimed at increasing confidence, improving transparency and developing efficient verification capabilities related to nuclear disarmament. Action 21: Standard Reporting Form As a confidence-building measure, all the nuclear-weapon States are encouraged to agree as soon as possible on a standard reporting form and to determine appropriate reporting intervals for the purpose of voluntarily providing standard information 28

29 TRANSPARNCY SCORCARD, 2015 INFORMATION ON NUCLAR WARHAD AND FISSIL MATRIAL INVNTORIS AND STATUS United States Russia Britain France China Number of total warheads Approximate No Yes (upper limit) Yes (upper limit) Relative (out of date) Number of deployed warheads Yes (strategic only) Yes (strategic only) Yes (planned) Yes No Dismantlements Yes No Yes (no details) Yes (no details) No Verification Partial Partial No No No Fissile material stockpiles Yes No Yes (no details) No No Production histories Yes No No No No xcess/disposal Yes (nothing new) Yes (nothing new) Yes (nothing new) No No Verification Partial Partial (but no longer) Partial (some plutonium) No No International R&D Activities Yes No Yes No Some 29