U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015
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1 U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015
2 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.) U.S. (Mils.) April 2015 SAAR Canada (Mils.) Mexico (Mils.) * U.S., Canada, Mexico, and 37 emerging markets Solid Fiscal Industry Austerity Sales Led Trends To Double Across Dip The Recession Region Note: 2014 FY are estimates
3 U.S. TOTAL NEW VEHICLE SALES Mils. Units, SAAR Total Fleet Retail Q April 2015 Full Year 2015 Sales Outlook Of Million Units Including Medium And Heavy Trucks
4 U.S. KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Consumer Sentiment Index Mfg. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Expansion Contraction April Unemployment Rate (Pct.) Real GDP (Pct. Change, YoY) 2015 April Q March Q Q Q 2015 Key Economic Indicators Suggest A Favorable Backdrop For Auto Sales
5 U.S. HOUSING UPDATE Housing Starts (SAAR, Mils.) and Home Builders Survey Index 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Pct.) 1.49 Housing Starts Home Builders Survey Index Case-Shiller Home Prices (Pct. Change, YoY) Note: Includes 20 major metropolitan areas New Home and Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mils.) Note: Based on six-month moving average 0 (19.0) 4.6 (4.5) Light Vehicle Sales New Home Sales Housing Sector Recovery Remains Modest
6 U.S. HOUSING STARTS, INDUSTRY SALES AND INTEREST RATES Policy Rate (%, Lt. Scale) Industry Volume (Mils., SAAR, 6MMA, Lt.Scale) Housing Starts (Mils. SAAR 6MMA, Rt. Scale) Note: Shaded areas show tightening cycles with industry downturn or flattening Historically Strong Relationship Between Interest Rate Cycles, Housing Starts And Vehicle Sales 0.0
7 DELINQUENCIES OF SUBPRIME MORTGAGES AND AUTO LOANS Sources: S&P as of July 2014, Mortgage Bankers Association as of December 2014 Subprime Mortgage: Total Subprime Mortgage: Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage: Fixed-Rate Subprime Auto Loan: Total 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Auto And Mortgage Loan Performance Has Diverged Since The Crisis
8 U.S. LOAN DEMAND INDICATORS Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Increased Demand for Residential Mortgages Demand for residential mortgages has increased in the early Second Quarter 2015, following the weak First Quarter Domestic banks have, on net, reported increased demand for auto loans in every quarter since the Second Quarter of (40) (80) All residential mortgage loans Prime Subprime Nontraditional (120) (40) (80) All consumer loans GSE Government QM non-jumbo non-gse QM jumbo Non-QM jumbo Non-QM non-jumbo Subprime 1Q Q 2015 Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Consumer Loans Credit card loans Auto loans Other consumer loans Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Source: Federal Reserve SLOOS (120)
9 U.S. LENDING STANDARDS Lending standards for wellqualified mortgages have eased considerably within the past year Substandard mortgage lending standards have remained tight since the financial crisis Relaxed lending standards for auto loans, following the financial crisis, promoting strong industry growth Source: Federal Reserve SLOOS All residential mortgage loans Prime Subprime Nontraditional (40) Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Residential Mortgage Loans Credit card loans Other consumer loans (40) GSE Credit Card Loans Auto loans Government QM non-jumbo, non-gse QM-jumbo Non-QM Jumbo Non-QM non-jumbo Subprime Other consumer loans 1Q Q 2015 Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Consumer Loans Tightening Easing Tightening Easing
10 U.S. AVERAGE AGE OF CARS AND TRUCKS (Age, years) Passenger Cars Light Trucks All Light Vehicles Elevated Vehicle Age Continues To Support Replacement Demand Source: Polk VIO registrations
11 U.S. HOUSEHOLD AND NEW VEHICLE BUYER MEDIAN INCOMES $90 (000s) $80 86 $70 $60 $50 $ $30 32 $ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NVCS New Vehicle Buyers Have Higher Median Income Than U.S. Households Overall
12 U.S. EXPECTED VEHICLE HOLDING PERIOD Years Between Next Purchase Data Source: NVCS Holding Periods Edging Down But Still Above Pre-Crisis Levels
13 U.S. VEHICLE DENSITY Total Working Age 1,161 Vehicles per 1,000 Pop. 1,205 1,212 1, , , Source: Polk, Census Bureau Aging Population Contributing To Lower Overall Vehicle Density
14 U.S. METROPOLITAN VEHICLE DENSITY 2.00 Vehicles Available per Worker Source: U.S. Census Bureau Note: Top 51 most populated metropolitan areas Metropolitan Vehicle Ownership Rates Have Remained Steady
15 LIGHT VEHICLE CAPACITY BY REGION Americas (Mils.) Europe (Mils.) Memo: Excess as Pct. of Production 14% 18% 20% 18% Middle East & Africa (Mils.) Memo: Excess as Pct. of Production 28% 28% 28% 23% Asia Pacific (Mils.) Memo: Excess as Pct. of Production 123% 121% 133% 103% Source: IHS Automotive April 2015 Forecast Memo: Excess as Pct. of Production 33% 39% 39% 39%
16 U.S. NEW AND USED VEHICLE CPI % Change Over Year Ago (0.5) (5) (10) New Vehicle CPI (11.8) Used Vehicle CPI (15) Vehicle Pricing Trends Have Moderated Recently SLIDE 16
17 SUMMARY U.S. economy recovering at a steady pace, with income and job gains supportive of vehicle buying conditions Interest rates remain low, supported by global liquidity conditions and with pace of Federal Reserve policy rate increases expected to be very gradual Housing market recovery remains subpar Replacement demand remains a key driver of U.S. vehicle sales Durability and consumer preferences for longer holding periods support elevated vehicle age Density growth has moderated, driven largely by demographics Global capacity conditions imply limited upside to U.S. industry pricing SLIDE 17
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