Economia României. - la începutul unui nou ciclu
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1 Economia României - la începutul unui nou ciclu CONSTANȚA 19 iunie 2015 dr. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist
2 CUPRINS I. INTRODUCERE II. CLIMATUL INTERNAȚIONAL III. ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE IV. ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO-FINANCIARE V. CONCLUZII 2
3 INTRODUCERE
4 INTRODUCERE Economia ROMÂNIEI: o economie mică (PIB nominal de 150 miliarde EUR în 2014); grad ridicat de deschidere (82% în 2014); amplu și sever proces de ajustare în ultimii ani (abia în 2014 PIB-ul real a revenit la maximul istoric din 2008); semnale de relansare a investițiilor productive premisele unui nou ciclu; politici economice pro-creștere; riscuri: globale/europene/regionale, interne. 4
5 CLIMATUL INTERNAȚIONAL
6 CLIMATUL INTERNAȚIONAL Investițiile productive în SUA (volum) Sursă: Departamentul Comerțului SUA, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania 6
7 CLIMATUL INTERNAȚIONAL 6.0 PIB-ul vs. Investițiile productive în Zona Euro (%, an/an, MA4) PIB Investiții productive -4.0 Sursă: Eurostat, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania 7
8 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE
9 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE PIB-ul a crescut cu 4,3% an/an în trimestrul I 2015; Contribuție a cererii interne de 5,6 puncte procentuale; Contribuția cererii externe nete de -1,3 puncte procentuale; Accelerarea investițiilor productive la 8% an/an, de la 1,4% an/an în trimestrul IV 2014; Dinamica anuală a consumului privat în accelerare la 4,9% an/an; Cele mai dinamici ramuri ale economiei în trimestrul I: industria (4,2% an/an); comerțul/transportul/horeca (5,8% an/an); construcțiile (6,2% an/an); agricultura (9% an/an); IT&C (13,2% an/an). Creștere economică sustenabilă în primele cinci luni (fără generare de dezechilibre); Intensificarea percepției de risc recent (situația Greciei, tensiunile politice interne). 9
10 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE 12.0 PIB (%, an/an, MA4) T T T T T T T T T T T T T Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică 10
11 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE 60 Investiții productive (%, an/an) Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică 11
12 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE 20 Consumul privat (%, an/an) Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică 12
13 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE 7,000 Exporturi vs. importuri (milioane EUR) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000 Balanța comercială Exporturi Importuri -3,000 Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică 13
14 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE 25.0 Producția industrială (%, an/an, MA12) Bunuri intermediare Bunuri de capital Bunuri de folosință îndelungată Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică 14
15 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE 100.0% Sectorul de construcții (%, an/an, MA12) 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% Clădiri rezidențiale Clădiri nerezidențiale Construcții inginerești Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică 15
16 ROMÂNIA EVOLUȚII MACRO-FINANCIARE RECENTE Structura PIB pe sectoare Agricultură Industrie Construcții Comerț (cu amănuntul, ridicata), transport, HORECA IT&C Financiar-bancar Imobiliar Administrație publică, apărare, sănătate, etc Activități profesionale, științifice, suport, administrative Activități de spectacole, culturale și recreative Sursă: Eurostat 16
17 ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO- FINANCIARE
18 ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO-FINANCIARE 18
19 ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO-FINANCIARE 8.0 PIB vs. Investiții productive (%, an/an, MA4) PIB Investiții productive (dr.) Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică, previziuni Banca Transilvania
20 ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO-FINANCIARE 14.0 Consum public vs. consum privat (%, an/an, MA4) Consum privat Consum public (dr.) -4.0 Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică, previziuni Banca Transilvania
21 ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO-FINANCIARE 18.0 Exporturi vs. Importuri (%, an/an, MA4) Exporturi Importuri (dr.) 0.0 Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică, previziuni Banca Transilvania 21
22 ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO-FINANCIARE 80.0% Datoria externă totală (% PIB) 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică, previziuni Banca Transilvania 22
23 ROMÂNIA PERSPECTIVE MACRO-FINANCIARE 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Inflație, PIB, rata de dobândă de referință, curs de schimb Inflație (%, an/an) PIB (%, an/an) Rata de dobândă de politică monetară (%) EUR/RON (%, an/an) 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% % Sursă: Institutul Național de Statistică, Banca Națională a României, previziuni Banca Transilvania 23
24 CONCLUZII
25 CONCLUZII România pare să fi intrat într-un nou ciclu economic; Păstrarea stabilității macro-financiare misiunea politicii economice; BNR spațiu de reducere a nivelului ratelor rezervelor minime obligatorii; Noul Cod Fiscal impact asupra comportamentului de investiții/consum; Investiții și reforme structurale convergența economică; Riscuri: inflexiunea monetară în SUA, situația Greciei, tensiunile geo-politice regionale și cele politice interne; Provocări: Uniunea Bancară Europeană, Uniunea Monetară Europeană. 25
26 CONCLUZII 8.0 PIB potențial România (pp) PTF Capital Munca -6.0 Sursă: Eurostat, INS, prelucrări Banca Transilvania 26
27 VĂ MULȚUMESC! dr. Andrei RĂDULESCU Tel:
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