Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle

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1 Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Greeley, Colorado March, 2016

2 Outline Long term Price Outlook Corn Forage Wheat Cattle Sheep & Lambs Others Short term Price Comments. General Economy I would love to stand here and tell you, $5.00 corn, $8.00 wheat and $3.00 calves for the rest of your life. But this is a competitive economy and agriculture is a competitive industry.

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10 Summary High prices in were the result of Strong demand. Supply disruptions. World wide volatility but by underlying growth. Moving forward ?: Plentiful supplies of everything. Weak to little demand growth. Strong dollar. It s not the 1980 s but there are similarities. Weaker prices & margins.

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18 Monthly Corn Contract

19 Weekly Corn Contract $8.00 $5.00 The trading range for corn is $3.35-$4.50/bu. Except

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26 Weekly Crude Oil Contract $150 $35 $40-$60

27 DEC 2015 Corn Contract Blue was the correct trading range & green can happen again but not for long

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29 Bottom line on corn basis: strong for as big as the crop was. Good demand and movement. Big weak basis in regions with excellent sorghum crop.

30 Forecast $ /bu

31 We will trade $3.75-$4.05 until there is a reason not to. We could move up to $4.10, $4.20, & $4.45 but Sell rallies DEC 2016 Corn Contract

32 Corn Outlook Market price is where fundamentals say it should be. Acreage next year? Rotation with soybeans? Cash flow & debt? Demand? Trade? Storage? Basis? Price outlook $3.65 $4.00/bu. And we ve had the two big crops. Aggressive sales on any weather driven rally. $4.20 & $4.50.

33 Weekly KC Wheat Contract

34 Monthly KC Wheat Contract

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43 Bottom line on wheat basis: weak for the reduced acres. Poor demand and movement.

44 Forecast $ /bu JUL 2016 KC Wheat Contract

45 Wheat Outlook World: Building stocks. U.S.: huge stocks but reduced acres. World weather? But soft exports due to strong dollar. Basis? Forecasts: JUL $5.00 with range $ /bu. And aligned with fundamentals. Aggressive $5.20 & $5.75. Likely storage opportunity into late 2016.

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50 Mil. Tons US ALL HAY SUPPLY Crop Year Production May 1 Stocks Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-19 08/12/15

51 Mil. Tons 190 US ALL HAY SUPPLY & DISAPPEARANCE Crop Year Hay Supply Disap. Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-20 08/12/15

52 Mil. Tons 120 US ALL HAY STOCKS December Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-22 08/12/15

53 Mil. Tons 30 US ALL HAY STOCKS May 1 (Beginning of Crop Year) Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-21 08/12/15

54 Mil. Tons 120 US HAY STOCKS AND PRODUCTION Crop Year December 1 Hay Stocks Alfalfa Hay Production Other Hay Production Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 08/12/15

55 2014 DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS (1000 Tons) U.S. Total: Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

56 PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS ( ) U.S. Total: 3% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

57 2015 MAY 1 HAY STOCKS (1000 Tons) U.S. Total: Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 5/12/2015

58 PERCENT CHANGE MAY 1 HAY STOCKS ( ) U.S. Total: 27.9% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 5/12/2015

59 2014 ALL HAY ACRES (1000 Acres) U.S. Total: 57,029 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

60 2014 ALFALFA HAY ACRES (1000 Acres) U.S. Total: 18,445 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

61 PERCENT CHANGE ALFALFA HAY ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 4.4% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

62 2014 OTHER HAY ACRES (1000 Acres) U.S. Total: 38,647 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

63 PERCENT CHANGE OTHER HAY ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 4% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

64 PERCENT CHANGE ALL HAY ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 1% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015

65 GL_GR310 Greeley, CO Thu Jan USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Hay Report Compared to the last week, hay movement limited and prices steady. The bulk of the market activity is on contracted hay. Demand good on Dairy quality alfalfa. Demand and movement light on lower quality alfalfa. Grass hay trade activity mostly on small squares. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay. Northeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Good ; Fair ; Utility DEL. Small Squares: Supreme (8.00 per bale); Utility (4.00 per bale). Grass Small Squares: Premium (5.50 per bale). Corn Stalks Large Squares: Good DEL Southeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Good , DEL; Fair ; Utility Timothy Grass Small Squares: Premium (5.00 per bale), Retail (9.00 per bale). San Luis Valley Area Alfalfa -- Large Square: Supreme Alfalfa/Grass -- Large Square: Utility Southwest Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Supreme ; Premium to Good ; Utility Mountains and Northwest Colorado Areas Grass Large Squares: Premium ; Fair

66 GL_GR310 Greeley, CO Thu Feb USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Hay Report Compared to the last week, hay movement light with prices steady on grass hay and lower quality alfalfa. Very little movement on Dairy quality alfalfa. Demand light. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay. Northeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Utility DEL. No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. Southeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Small Squares: Premium ( per bale). Sorghum Sudan Round: Good No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. San Luis Valley Area No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. Southwest Colorado Areas Grass Small Squares: Premium (8.00 per bale, Certified Weed Free). Orchard Grass Small Squares: Premium (8.00 per bale). No reported quotes from all other classes of hay. Mountains and Northwest Colorado Areas No reported quotes for all other classes of hay.

67 GL_GR310 Greeley, CO Thu Mar USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Hay Report Compared to the last week, hay movement continued light with prices steady to weak on inactive trade. The bulk of hay trades are at auction markets. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay. Northeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Utility Wheat Straw Large Squares: Good Southeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Small Squares: Premium ( per bale). Sorghum Sudan Round: Good Haygrazer Large Squares: Good San Luis Valley Area No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. Southwest Colorado Areas No reported quotes from all other classes of hay. Mountains and Northwest Colorado Areas Grass Large Squares: Utility Small Squares: Premium (5.50 per bale). Round: Utility

68 Forage Outlook Plentiful except for high quality. Excellent hay: Alfalfa $150 $175/T. Grass $85 $100/T. Low quality hay: <$60 $80/T. Back to more small bales

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72 Other Crops Oilseeds: The one market with long term growth potential. Record large crop last year in S. Am. Sorghum: Superb crop last year. Growth will depend on feed use & exports. Millet: Domestic demand growth potential. Decreased acres but increased production. Malting barley: Excellent premiums past several years. Weather related but weather other places. Potatoes: Excellent production this year. Soft trade. Sugar: World versus domestic prices. Substantial long term world pressure on prices. Hops: This is the only commodity that I hear persistent discussion of limited availability

73 Weekly Live Cattle Contract This market is looking for a bottom trading range $ /cwt. $170

74 Monthly Live Cattle Contract

75 Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract This market will drift lower trading range $ /cwt. $240

76 Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract

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78 Cattle Outlook Fed cattle market will trend down: Domestic demand was strong. International demand & trade are weak. Abundant supplies of competing meats. Feeder cattle and calf prices will weaken for the next several years: Herd building.

79 OCT 2015 Live Cattle Contract

80 I can see a rally this spring until summer with greening of grass like we saw in Sell your calves on the video in 2016 if that happens! OCT 2015 Feeder Cattle Contract

81 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

82 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

83 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Fourth Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

84 MT US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA APHIS Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/12/16

85 1000 MT 19 TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /5/13 7/6/13 1/4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 Data Source: USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/12/16

86 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-15 02/09/16

87 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-16 02/09/16

88 Mil. Pounds 200 US NET BEEF IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-31 02/09/16

89 Bil. Pounds 3.5 US BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-28 02/09/16

90 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-02A 02/01/16

91 Mil. Head 42 CALF CROP July Estimates, U.S., Annual = 34.3 Million Head +2.3 Percent Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-18B 02/01/16

92 Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-38 02/01/16

93 Mil. Head 6.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-37 02/01/16

94 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January Data Source: USDA NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-48 02/01/16

95 $ Per Cwt AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains lb Steer Calves lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-06 02/12/16

96 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-66 02/12/16

97 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF COSTS Total Cash Cost Plus Pasture Rent, Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/12/16

98 Date LMIC Cattle Price & Quantity Forecasts % Change Production % Change Consumption Fed Cattle 7 800# Feeder 5 600# Calf 2015: VI $ $ $ $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ $ $ $

99 OCT 2016 Live Cattle Contract

100 OCT 2016 Feeder Cattle Contract

101 8 Mil. Head BREEDING EWES 1 YEAR & OLDER Projections, January 1, U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center S-N-03 02/01/16

102 $ Per Cwt. 175 SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICES Wooled, lbs, San Angelo, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/08/16

103 $ Per Cwt. 220 SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICES Calculated Formula Live (April 2009 to present), Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

104 Thou. Head 53 SHEEP & LAMB SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center S-S-00 02/26/16

105 Thou. Head 4.0 MATURE SHEEP SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center S-S-03 02/26/16

106 Thou. Head 50 LAMB AND YEARLING SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center S-S-05 02/26/16

107 Thou. Head 76 LAMB AND YEARLING DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center S-S-06 02/26/16

108 Cents / Pounds 180 AVERAGE WOOL PRICE U.S., Grease, Annual Data Source: USDA/NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center W-P-14 04/27/15

109 $ Per Pound 3.60 MONTHLY AVERAGE U S WOOL PRICE 26 Micron (USDA 56s), Clean, FOB JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center W-P-01 12/09/15

110 $ Per Pound 4.30 MONTHLY AVERAGE U S WOOL PRICE 24 Micron (USDA 60s), Clean, FOB JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center W-P-02 12/09/15

111 $ Per Pound 4.50 MONTHLY AVERAGE U S WOOL PRICE 22 Micron (USDA 64s), Clean, FOB JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center W-P-03 12/09/15

112 5.30 MONTHLY AVERAGE WOOL PRICE 26 Micron (USDA 56s), Clean Australian deliv. to South Carolina vs. U.S. FOB Australia U.S. Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center W-P-04 12/09/15

113 8.00 MONTHLY AVERAGE WOOL PRICE 22 Micron (USDA 64s), Clean Australian deliv. to South Carolina vs. U.S. FOB Australia U.S. Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center W-P-06 12/09/15

114 Sheep, Lamb & Wool Outlook Expansion Lower prices. Modest longer term trade issues. No wreck similar to cattle No weight problem. No market ready inventory problem. Also not immune going forward. Strong wool market.

115 Input Market Outlook Summary Soft everything. Even land valuations Risks moderating. Softening fuel costs with no volatility Fertilizer Chemicals Supply industries remain operating undercapacity & unwilling to take risk. We haven t had this much cheap energy in a while. Let s see what happens.

116 Weekly Crude Oil Contract $150 $35 $40-$60

117 Weekly Natural Gas Contract

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124 David Kohl s: Worst Farm Management Practices Investment into nonproductive assets. High family living cost or withdrawals from the business. Spending your way out of income taxes. Poor financial record systems. Co mingling business and personal expenses. Bigness on the brain! Mismanagement of a family member s return. Skipping the details. Attempting to hit a home run each time at bat! Refusal to learn.

125 Ed Usset s: A Fresh Start Marketing Have a plan. Planning & wishing are different. Find a dime. This year s big moves will be smaller than prior years. Know your costs of production. What is your target profit or rate of return? Eliminate mistakes. What did you do wrong last year? Look ahead. Be proactive not reactive.

126 Marketing? Forward selling needs to be considered one day of the week each week of the year. Set a target, be reasonable, & sell some when you can get that. Write it down. Do your fundamentals. Do your technical analysis. Sell when they say sell & buy when they say buy. Marketing will not fix production/cost problems.

127 Percent Change QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Real Dollar (2005) Change from Previous Quarter Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 11/13/15

128 Percent 11.0 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 11/13/15

129 Index 120 Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = Jan 78 Jan 81 Jan 84 Jan 87 Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14 Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Livestock Marketing Information Center 08/11/2014

130 93/76 = So foreign buyers of our commodities face a 22% increase in prices before even they get a chance to buy the commodities. It s not as bad as in the early-2000 s or the entire 1980s. But it s worse than the Great Recession.

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136 Weekly S&P 500 Index Contract

137 Trends Summary were due to demand growth & weatherrelated supply shocks. Caught up & recovered from both. Return to more normal prices & margins. Plentiful supplies & stocks of everything. Strong dollar & weak trade. Soft international economies. Cheaper energy & fertilizer & rent(?) & seed (??). Back to cost control knitting.

138 Outlook Summary Corn: $ /bu. for 2016/17. Acres & weather? Hay: if you have a bidder then sell it Wheat: $ /bu. for next harvest. Cattle: A different kind of wow Fed: $ /cwt. Feeders: $ /cwt. Calves: $ /cwt. Sheep & Lamb follow beef & other meats.

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140 Contact and Link Information

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