8 Putting Things Into Context: Economic Outlook Job creation approximates 3.0 million net new jobs Stronger household formation Strong job growth in context of sub-6% unemployment suggests pressure on wages. Consumer confidence/sentiment has improved significantly and is expected to continue. Low oil prices add basis points to economic growth. Regional disruptions among energy producing states.
9 Putting Things Into Context: Economic Outlook Inflation remains low, interest rates expected to only gradually increase, slower increases in home prices and stronger increases in rents. New home affordability remains favorable in absolute terms and against rents. Lending risks subside and lending standards ease. Economic recovery moving into higher growth phase in the years ahead. Roughly 3% growth on a sustained basis. Healing of excesses, and huge pent-up demand.
10 Consumers Are Ready to Propel Growth Debt-to-Income ratio at 18 year best, Job creation continues at a monthly rate of 225K to 250K. Job creation occurs in the context sub-6% unemployment. Pressure on wages begin to of emerge. Oil price declines, if sustained, add 0.3% to 0.4% consumer spending growth. While pressure gradually mounts, inflation and interest rates remain low. Consumer Wealth remains strong via home price increases and stock performances. Unprecedented levels of pent-up demand exist. Consumer sentiment rapidly improving.
11 Strong Dollar
12 Weighted Average Exchange Value of U.S. Dollar Major Currencies Index (Index Mar-1973=100, NSA) Lowers Inflation Hinders Interest Rate Pressures Reduces US Exports %
13 IPM New Order Index Dollar Vs Purchasing Manager Index: New Orders IPM New Orders Dollar Vs Major Currencies IPM New Orders Declines 6% in Past 12 Months. Implies continued expansion but at less robust Rate than Previously Expected Dollar Index
16 West Texas Intermediate Oil Prices Per Barrel $66.02 $99.57 $79.40 $94.12 $93.10 $76.20 $86.60 $97.00 $ $
17 Shale Breakeven Points Survey Location Estimated Breakeven Price Marcellus Shale - SW Liquid Rich Pennsylvania $24.23 Marcellus Shale - Super Rich Pennsylvania $25.63 Utica - Wet Gas Ohio $32.39 Missippian Horizontal - East Mississippi $42.15 Utica - Liquid Rich Ohio $44.04 Eagle Ford - Liquids Rich Texas $46.02 Niobrara - Wattenberg CO, WY, Neb $46.10 Wolfcamp - N. Midland West Texas $53.92 Eagle Ford - Oil Window Texas $55.29 Wolfcamp - S. Midland Texas $61.57 Missippian Horizontal - West Mississippi $64.05 Wolfberry Texas $64.63 Bakken Shale Montana, North Dakota $64.74 Wolfcamp - N. Delaware Texas $68.54 Uinta - Green River Utah, Colorado $68.77 Uinta - Wasatch - Horizontal Utah, Colorado $72.15 Granite Wash - Liquid Rich KS, TX, OK $73.10 Uinta - Wasatch - Vertical Utah, Colorado $74.95 Barnett Shale - Southern Liquid Rich Texas $84.45 Category One Category Two Category Three
18 Fed Policy
19 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Assumptions Strong dollar, weak global conditions, low oil prices, spot slack conditions and low wage rate gains suggest slow inflation increases. Past recession worst since post-wwii and recovery has been slow. Fed (Yellen) likely to err on over stimulate. Suggests a somewhat bigger window for raising rates (3 rd Q). Rate increases probably smaller and longer time lapses between increases.
20 Housing Outlook
21 Housing Assessments Perspective: SF Sales: 7.46 million (2005) million (2014). 36% below past peak. Total Starts: 2.07 million (2005). 1.0 million (2014). 52% below past peak. SF Starts: 1.72 million (2005) million (2014). 62% below past peak. MF Starts: 0.36 million (2005) million (2014). At pre-recession levels. Large housing starts percentage increases expected by PCA must take into consideration the current low levels of activity.
22 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Recession SF Home Sales Thousand Units 23% Price Decay 4,000 3,000 2,000 Distressed Sales 22
23 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% Home Sales to Employment Ratio Home Sales/Employment 23
24 Housing Assessments: Credit Access Credit Qualifications: Stronger job market implies stronger FICO scores. Equivax states 45% of all consumers have a FICO score below 700. This compares to 47% in FICO credit-score calculations have recently eliminated records of a consumer failing to pay a bill if the bill has been paid and less weight to unpaid medical bills that are with a collection agency. For borrowers in the range, those who are close to a lender's typical credit score minimum, 45% of that population saw their scores improve enough to meet the credit score threshold,"
25 Housing Assessments: Credit Access Credit Qualifications: Nations mortgage rules were recently made by the Consumer Financial Protection Burea (CFPB). Dodd-Frank Protection remains in place, but opens up access to mortgage market via the Qualified Residential Mortgage rule. Ability-to-repay guidelines adds clarity to lenders. Eliminates the 20% down payment requirement if banks don t hold 5% of mortgages on its own books. Reduces FICA scores. More favorable guidelines for packaging & selling mortgage securities. Stronger job market implies stronger FICO scores.
26 Housing Outlook 2,500 Housing Starts Thousands of Units 2,000 1,500 1,
27 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Starts Composition Multifamily Starts Share of Total
28 Nonresidential Outlook
29 Simplified Version of Nonresidential Recovery Investment in nonresidential commercial properties is determined by expected ROI. Expected ROI = NOI + Expected Asset Appreciation. Expected Asset Appreciation = NOI performance. NOI performance = Occupancy & Leasing rates. Occupancy & Leasing Rates = Employment
30 Update: Job Creation Relationship to Changes in Cement Consumption 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Past 12 Months, Thousand Net New Jobs, Thousand Tons c c Net Job Creation Change in Cement Consumption 30
32 Nonresidential Construction Activity Million Real $ 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,
33 Nonresidential Cement Intensities Tons per million real $ % Increase
34 Nonresidential Cement Intensities Tons per million real $ Adds 5.7 MMT
35 Public Outlook
36 300 Public Construction Million Real $ Seven Years Decline = -2.1% 2015 = +1.6%
37 State Highway & Street Funding Model Gross State Product State Fiscal Assessment Note: Simplified Flow. Many steps required to reach each bubble. Discretionary Highway Expenditures MAP-21 Allocation Total Highway Funding GSP = Gross State Product (Real). Indicates economic activity at the state level.
38 $ ,000,000 State Deficit Outlook Net Balance (Revenues Less Expenditures) 100,000,000 50,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,
39 Share of State Expenditures On Transportation 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% Average = 2.25% 1.0%
40 Local Employment & Home Prices 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Jan 2005 Jul 2006 Home Prices Lagged Three Years Jan 2008 Jul 2009 Jan 2011 Jul 2012 Based on Three Year Lag Between Home Prices and Employment, the ongoing improvement in prices implies a significant upturn in local spending beginning in 2015 Jan-14 Jul-15 14,700 14,600 14,500 14,400 14,300 14,200 14,100 14,000 13,900 13,800 13,700 13,600
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