Facing the Crisis in Southern Europe: Demographic, Political and Social Service Dilemmas

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Facing the Crisis in Southern Europe: Demographic, Political and Social Service Dilemmas"

Ashlyn Norman
6 years ago
Views:

1 Facing the Crisis in Southern Europe: Demographic, Political and Social Service Dilemmas Manuel Aguilar Hendrickson Universitat de Barcelona The Roatch Lecture The Roatch-Haskell Special Event ASU School of Social Work Phoenix AZ, February 26, 2016

2 Spain? What s that?

3 Area: smaller than TX, larger that CA Source: ifitweremyhome. com using Google Maps

4 Population 2014: 20 per cent larger than CA Spain California Source: US and Spanish census data

5 The unexpected migration Source: INE

6 GDP 2013: larger than NY, CA 50 per cent larger 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Spain New York California Source: OECD

7 GDP per capita Spain New York California Source: OECD

8 Unemployment 2014: much higher than US, but ,8 56,4 56,9 55,6 Employment / pop Unemployment ,6 12,4 4,8 5,8 Spain Italy New York Arizona Source: OECD & BLS

9 Social protection: are we crazy spenders? Net private Net public 10 0 USA Spain Denmark Source: OECD

10 1. The current crisis in Spain and Southern Europe

11 Not all crisis are born equal 1

12 A serious hiccup United States France Germany GDP (1995=100) OECD.Stat

13 A serious hiccup or a boom and a bust United States France Germany Greece Italy Portugal Spain GDP (1995=100) OECD.Stat

14 A serious hiccup or a boom and a bust United States Germany France GDP (1995=100) OECD.Stat

15 An unemployment-intensive crisis

16 100 Employment to population ratio for Men Women Netherlands Germany Greece Spain Italy Source: Eurostat

17 that has broken our way of coping with unemployment

18 People living in households with very low work intensity (population aged 0 to 59 years) ,5 11 5,5 0 Denmark Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Portugal Source: Eurostat

19 6 % Main breadwinner 23 % 5 % 1 % Main breadwinner 30 % 38 % 57 % Spouse 14 % Sons/ daughters Spouse Sons/daughters 26 % Who s unemployed? The shrinking role of family

20 Dumping the cost on the poor

21 Source: B Milanovic from LIS

22 Severe material deprivation , , ,7 4,8 3,5 7,1 0 France Spain Greece Source: Eurostat

23 Inadequate social protection?

24 How effective are cash benefits to reduce poverty? ,4 11,7 21,9 16,4 8, ,7 France Ireland Spain Primary Primary + pensions All income Below poverty line (60% of median income) 2014 Source: EU-SILC, tables ilc_li01, ilc_li09 & ilc_li10

25 How effective are cash benefits to reduce poverty? ,4 11,7 21,9 16,4 8, , France Ireland Spain Primary Primary + pensions All income Below poverty line (60% of median income) 2014 Source: EU-SILC, tables ilc_li01, ilc_li09 & ilc_li10

26 Who benefits? Lowest 20% Highest 20% Australia Norway Denmark Netherlands Sweden Canada United Kingdom Korea Belgium Finland Israel United States New Zealand Slovak Republic OECD Germany Czech Republic Iceland Slovenia Estonia Ireland Chile France Hungary Poland Austria Japan Luxembourg Portugal Spain Italy Mexico Greece Turkey Source: OECD SOCX

27 2. The challenges ahead

28 An ill-designed Eurozone

29 An ill-designed Eurozone A single currency, meaning a single monetary policy Interest rates, printing of money decided for all But Very different economies No common fiscal or redistribution policy De facto limited mobility

30 The territorial breakdown

31 GDP per capita 2012

32 Employment rate 2012

33 Territorial breakdown Who cares for who s brother/sister? National versus European redistribution Dynamic regions What if you don't have? What if they don t want to?

34 Is our welfare state the one we need?

35 From Bismarck to what? Bismarckian («continental») welfare states Social insurance-based Maintain income rather than redistribute Based on male breadwinners, life-long jobs In the South, limited development of social assistance («welfare») and paradoxical familialism

36 From Bismarck to what? Very dependent on balance between age groups Families are our safety net and care provider Little public support At the cost of reducing fertility

37 Towards «social investment»? Social investment Origins in Scandinavian welfare policies Putting everybody to work Emphasis in child development, education, activation, social care Combined with basic security (pensions, health care) Virtuous combination of efficiency and equality

38 Towards «social investment»? Can we get there? Path dependencies: existing entitlements, family roles Insiders and outsiders, resistance to changes Can we create jobs for everybody? Costs of transition

39 Recalibrating our social system A trilemma: Relatively low taxation + tax avoidance Relatively decent coverage for insiders and the middle class Improving the situation of the poorest per cent

40 Thank you very much

AREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven.

AREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven. Reference series Composite leading indicators OECD Composite Leading Indicators AREA TOTALS 7-03- 19 OECD Total 19 OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries 19 Major Seven 19 Major Five Asia 19 Euro area 19