A Comparative Study on Urban Transport system and Related Environmental Impact in Asian Mega-cities: Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo

Transcription

1 A Comparative Study on Urban Transport system and Related Environmental Impact in Asian Mega-cities: Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo Prof. Kebin He Tsinghua University Workshop of IGES/APN Mega-city Project Policy Integration Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for cities in Asia, February, 2003 in Honolulu

2 Contents Introduction Urban Transportation System Energy and Environmental Impacts Conclusions Future Work

3 1. Introduction

4 Introduction Rapid urbanization Urban population grows at a rate of 3.6% in Asia and 5% in China Development of megacities in East Asia region Tokyo: the largest city in the world Beijing and Shanghai: the largest cities in China, and have significance on Chinese economic and social development Seoul: has 10.3 million residents, one-fourth of the national population

5 Introduction Socioeconomic characteristics of the study cities, 2001 Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Seoul GDP/capita (US$) * 8870* Population (million) Population Density (pop./km²) Vehicle Ownership (per 1000 capita.) Journey frequency (times/pop. Day) 1.80 (1986) 2.20 (2000) 1.79 (1986) 1.95 (1995) 3.00 (2001) 2.8 (1988) 3.4 (1998) Percentage of Journal for Work (%) 30.2 (1986) 27.7 (1995) 16.0 (1998) - By Private Transport (%) By Public Transport (%) By Motorcycle, Bicycle and foot (%) * National level -

6 Work Targets Compare urban and transportation system among these four megacities Study the energy and environmental impacts of transport system in the three East Asian megacities Provide suggestions for the development of sustainable transport system

7 2. Urban Transportation System

8 Vehicle population A. Vehicle population (1000units) Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Seoul

9 Vehicle ownership per 1000 person Vs. GDP per capita 1000 Vehicle ownership /1000persons Beijing:k= Shanghai : k= Tokyo: k= Seoul: k= Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Seoul GDP (US$) per capita

10 Urban transport infrastructure-road Road area (km 2 )/person Beijing Shanghai Tokyo seoul

11 Urban transport infrastructure-road Vehicle population/km road length Beijing Shanghai Tokyo seoul

12 Urban road net in Beijing Current fast road Current main road Fast road in building Main road in building Planned fast road Planned main road

13 Urban transport infrastructure-railway Total length (Km) Seoul 134 Beijing 55.1 Shanghai 65.0 Tokyo Comparison of Subway

14 Beijing s Urban railway plan in 2008 C urrent subw ay C urrent railw ay P lann ed sub w ay P lann ed railw ay S uburb railw ay the total urban railway length will be 252 km

15 Growth of Tokyo Railway Source: Tokyo Urban Transport, Akio Okamoto

16 Road and Subway system in Seoul Intercity freeway Urban freeway Roads Subway

17 Transport mode 100% Bicycle+foot 80% Private car 60% 40% 20% 0% Beijing Shanghai Seoul Tokyo Bus+subway Taxi Taxi+private car Subway Bus

18 Public transport system Beijing Beijing-Taxi Beijing-Subway Beijing-Bus Beijing Shanghai Shanghai Taxi Subway Bus Public transport volume (billion person.times)

19 3. Energy and Environmental Impacts

20 Energy and Environmental Impact Oil consumption CO 2 emission Pollutants emissions NO x, CO, HC, PM 10, SO 2

21 Vehicle population (10 3 units) 6, , ,000.0 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai Total 6, , ,000.0 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai Car 3, , , , , , Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai Bus 1, Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai Truck

22 Fuel economy level of new cars Beijing Japan

23 Age distribution of Cars in Beijing Vehicle population (10 4 units) vehicle age year

24 Age distribution of Cars in Shanghai VP (10 4 units) vehicle age year 1995

25 Age distribution of Cars in Tokyo (10 4 units) VP vehicle age year 1987

26 Average fuel economy Average fuel economy (km/l) Car Small bus Large bus Small truck Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Large truck Average fuel economy (km/l) Car Small bus Large bus Small truck Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Large truck

27 Fuel consumption Fuel consumption (Million tons) Beijing Shanghai Tokyo

28 Annual oil consumption per unit Annual oil consumption per vehicle (ton) Beijing Shanghai Tokyo In 1995, the oil consumption per vehicle in Beijing and Shanghai is about 10 times that in Tokyo In 2020, it will be 2-3 times

29 CO 2 emission (10 3 tons) CO2 Beijing Shanghai Tokyo

30 Annual CO 2 emission per unit Annual CO 2 emission per vehicle (ton) Beijing Shanghai Tokyo

31 Comparison of vehicle emission 100% 80% 60% NOx share-no x 100% 80% 60% NOx MC Large truck Small truck Large bus Small bus Car 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% % 0% % 60% 40% 20% 0% Beijing Tokyo Shanghai NOTES: The largest contributor is different among the cities: Large truck in Beijing Small bus in Shanghai Small truck in Tokyo

32 Comparison of vehicle emission share-co 100% 80% 60% 40% 100% 80% 60% 40% MC Large truck Small truck Large bus Small bus Car 20% 20% 0% % % 80% Beijing Shanghai 60% 40% 20% 0% Tokyo NOTES: Great contribution of cars Obvious MC s emissions

33 Comparison of vehicle emission share-thc 100% 80% 60% 40% 100% 80% 60% 40% MC Large truck Small truck Large bus Small bus Car 20% 20% 0% % 0% % 60% 40% 20% Beijing Tokyo Shanghai 0%

34 Comparison of vehicle emission share-pm % 80% 60% 40% 100% 80% 60% 40% MC Large truck Small truck Large bus Small bus Car 20% 20% 0% % % 80% Beijing Shanghai 60% 40% 20% Tokyo NOTES: Absolutely the largest contributor-large truck 0%

35 4. Conclusions

36 For urban transport system Beijing and Shanghai Rapid increase of traffic volume Greater pressure Gradual decline of urban public transport Laggard urban railway construction Tokyo Perfect urban railway system The development of road transport seems to be stable Seoul Develop trend is slowed down

37 For fuel consumption and CO 2 emission With only 1/10 of Tokyo s fleet, Beijing and Shanghai s fleet tend to consume equivalent amount of oil and emit amount equivalent CO 2 Improve fuel economy Develop urban transport, especially large-scale public transport Adjust transport structure

38 For pollutants emission Smaller vehicle fleets produce much more emission amount in Beijing and Shanghai Further reduce the VMT of vehicles Strengthen control of in-use vehicles Different emission issue in the cities Small bus and motorcycle in Shanghai Small truck in Tokyo Large truck in all the cities, especially for its PM emission

39 5. Future work Improve the data Improve the scenario Complete the Seoul case in the simulation Improve the methodology by integrating urban transport plan in the computation

40 Thanks!

41 02,3/,3/$: 中国石油总需求 O il d em an d in C h in a 公路部门石油需求 O il d e m a n d in ro a d tran sp o rt secto r 百万吨 Million tons 供求缺口 G ap of oil dem and and supply 中国石油生产能力 O il production in China

42 Growth of total civil motor vehicle population in Shanghai Vehicle Population, Year Vehicles Motor Cycle Mopeds

43 Methodology

44 SPEADSHEET MODEL Thanks! Please Readme First! INPUT GRAPHIC 1. Vehicle Population 2. Fuel Specification 3. Fuel Economy 4. Emission Factors COMPUTE 1. Vehicle Population 2. Fuel Consumpition 3. Pollutants Emission

45 基准年 (1999) 排放及浓度贡献 (6) NOx 浓度分布情况 NOx 排放分布情况

46 基准年 (1999) 排放及浓度贡献 (9)