Session 6. Global Imbalances. Growth. Macroeconomics in the Global Economy. Saving and Investment: The World Economy
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1 Session 6. Global Imbalances. Gowth. v, and the Real Inteest Rate v Global Imbalances v Gowth v Intoduction to exchange ates and : The Wold Economy The eal inteest ate is the pice that equilibates saving and investment. Deceases in o inceases in dive up the inteest ate. Equilibium ate, 1
2 and in a Small Open Economy Counties with excess saving (elative to investment) un cuent account supluses. Remembe that when S > I, it means that spending (C + I +G) is smalle than income (GDP+NFP). CA suplus Wold ate, and in a Small Open Economy Counties with excess investment (elative to saving) un cuent account deficits. Remembe that when S < I, it means that spending (C + I +G) is geate than income (GDP+NFP). Wold ate CA deficit, 2
3 and : The Wold Economy CA suplus Wold ate CA deficit,, Glut To be moe specific, I will ague that ove the past decade a combination of divese foces has ceated a significant incease in the global supply of saving--a global saving glut--which helps to explain the elatively low level of long-tem eal inteest ates in the wold today Ben Benanke, Mach 10,
4 Glut Glut: The Wold Economy (1990s) (2000s) ate (1990s) ate (2000s), 4
5 Glut: Global Imbalances ate (1990s) CA suplus (New) ate (2000s) CA deficit,, Global Imbalances 5
6 Global Imbalances Cuent Account as % of Wold GDP Income - Spending US OIL DEU+JPN Euope Deficit CHN+EMA Othes Euope Deficit: Bulgaia, Geece, Hungay, Ieland, Potugal, Spain, United Kingdom, How expensive is boowing fo the US? As the Net Foeign Asset Position of the US becomes negative, one would have expected that the inteest payments also became negative (and lage). But they emained positive because foeignes wee getting much lowe etuns on thei US assets than Ameicans on thei foeign assets. Income vs. NFA position as % of GDP 14% 2. Despite this incease in debt, the US still collects a highe evenue fom its assets than what it pays fo its liabilities. Income is still positive (ight scale). 1% 4% % 0% -16% 1. The US has been accumulating an inceasing amount of debt (Net Foeign Asset Position on left scale) -1% -26% -2% 6
7 Application: Faewell to Cheap Capital? Going fowad we might see inceases in investment in emeging counties, possibly combined with inceases in consumption in China (lowe saving). Among advanced economies we see a tend towads deleveaging (highe saving), but looking beyond the next 5 yeas we will see an inceasing numbe of wokes eaching etiement and using thei savings to fund thei consumption. What will wold (eal) inteest ates do? Equilibium ate, Application: Faewell to Cheap Capital? 7
8 Application: Faewell to Cheap Capital? Summay on Economic Gowth: The Fou I s Innovation Initial conditions Institutions The incentives to innovate (e.g. espect of intellectual popety ights) will shift the technology fontie. This is the main foce behind gowth in the developed counties. Povides the potential fo catching up. Poo counties can gow faste when they set on a convegence path to the ich economies A key ingedient in the pocess of convegence is the building up of the capital stock. This equies high investment ates. Miacles ae counties with investment of ove 25% of GDP. In addition to physical investment, it is impotant to invest in human capital, efficiency, technology What dives investment: stability, institutions. The best way to ensue sound macoeconomic policies (i.e. stability) and political stability is to build institutions that ceate incentives fo stability: Independent cental bank, checks and balances, ule of law, tanspaency. US, Japan, Fance, Gemany China today, Singapoe in 80s High gowth (Koea) 35%; Steady state (US, Gemany) ~ 18% Thee is not a single county that has become ich with pooquality institutions 8
9 Economic Gowth: The 4 I s Feb 25, 2008 Medvedev outlined his efom pioities as the "fou I s": "Institutions, Infastuctue, Innovation, and." Regading institutions, Medvedev poposed to educe the numbe of govenment employees, to tansfe tasks fom the state to the pivate secto, and to combat couption. He also stessed the need to lowe the tax buden on businesses as pat of his Innovation and goals. 2 Oil Poducing Counties Institutions Matte Noway 1.5 Chile Poland Singapoe 1 India USA Institutional Quality Libeia Nige Indonesia Namibia Bazil Geece UAE Saudi Aabia Russia China -1.5 Venezuela GDP Pe Capita (2010) Souce: Fatás and Mihov (HBR 2009) 9
10 Assignment GDP pe capita (USD) South Afica Singapoe New Zealand Mexico Lebanon Japan India Geece Fance Egypt China Canada Bulgaia Bazil Austalia PPP Cuent US$ Assignment 2010 South Afica Singapoe New Zealand Mexico Lebanon Japan India Geece Fance Egypt China Canada Bulgaia Bazil Austalia (I) as % of GDP
11 Assignment Real GDP pe capita. PPP. (% of US) Austalia Bazil Bulgaia Canada China Egypt Fance Geece Assignment Real GDP pe capita. PPP. (% of US) India Japan Lebanon Mexico New Zealand Singapoe South Afica
12 Assignment Gowth GDP pe capita (%) Bazil and Gowth Singapoe Bulgaia South Afica Austalia Lebanon India in physical capital (% of GDP) China County Ease of Doing Business Ranking (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Singapoe New Zealand Canada Austalia Japan Fance South Afica Mexico Bulgaia China Egypt Geece Lebanon Bazil India (1) Stating a Business (6) Paying Taxes (2) Dealing with Constuction Pemits (7) Tading Acoss Bodes (3) Registeing Popety (8) Enfocing Contacts (4) Getting Cedit (9) Closing a Business (5) Potecting Investos 12
13 Exchange ates: Definitions v Nominal Exchange ate Relative pice of the cuencies of two counties How many units of foeign cuency one can buy with one unit of domestic cuency v Real exchange ate How many foeign goods one can buy with one unit of a domestic good ε = e P P * ε eal exchange ate e nominal exchange ate P pice of a domestic good (basket of goods) P* pice of a foeign good (basket of goods) Exchange ates: PPP Let s detemine the eal exchange ate between a Micosoft Xbox 360 Kinect sold in Fance and in the US (souce: Amazon.com and Amazon.f on May 8, 2012) (Fance is the home county in this example) P Fance = 186; P US = $199; e = 1.30$/ 1.30 *186 ε = = Accoding to this example is the euo ove/undevalued? What is the nominal exchange ate that will peclude abitage? 13
14 Exchange ates: PPP Exchange ates: PPP 14
15 Exchange ates: Movements v When the value of the domestic cuency inceases/deceases unde a flexible exchange ate egime, then this cuency appeciates/ depeciates. v Unde a fixed exchange ate egime the coesponding tems ae evaluation and devaluation. v We can epesent the link between nominal (NER) and eal exchange ates (RER) in tems of pecentage changes: % change in RER = % change in NER + Domestic inflation - Foeign inflation Inflation and the Nominal Exchange Rate Long-un Dichotomy % change in RER = % change in NER + Domestic inflation - Foeign inflation Pecentage change in nominal exchange ate Sweden Austalia New Zealand Spain Ieland Canada South Afica Fance UK Belgium 0-1 Gemany Nethelands - 2 Switzeland - 3 Japan Inflation diffeential Souce: Mankiw (Fig.5.13). Aveages fo Italy Depeciation elative to U.S. dolla Appeciation elative to U.S. dolla 15
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