Sulphur Market Outlook
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1 Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida
2 Founded in 2002, Integer Research is a leading consultancy in the fertilizer sector SERVICES PRODUCTS GEOGRAPHY PARTNERS Publications Nitrogen London ICIS Consultancy Phosphates Potash Sulphur and sulphuric acid Beijing Tokyo LMC International Environ Expert subconsultants
3 Sulphur market overview
4 Sulphur: changing market sentiment from by product to yellow gold
5 Sulphur prices historically remained below US$100/tonne across major benchmarks, but the commodity bubble in 2007/2008 changed this US$/tonne 900 Average Middle East sulphur prices, Middle East FOB Prices started increasing in 2007, as supply tightened and downstream markets were also buoyed Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Source: Integer, ICIS
6 Recent trends in global sulphur pricing US$/tonne Sulphur prices, September 2014 October 2016 China CFR Middle East FOB Vancouver FOB spot Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Sulphur quarterly average prices (US$ per tonne) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Δ%YoY Q3 China CFR % Middle East FOB % Vancouver FOB spot % Source: Integer, ICIS
7 Recent market developments Europe/FSU Consolidation in the chemicals sector Erosion of production in West Europe Kazakhstan project progress Americas Fort McMurray wildfires US sulphur production rebound Mosaic s melter in Tampa Brazilian import demand easing Cuba sulphuric acid plant Middle East, Africa & Asia Climbing inventories in China Barzan/Qatar progress and delays Indian sugar season Morocco processed phosphates expansion Source: Integer
8 Supply
9 The rise in Middle East sulphur production has materialised in 2016, to bring the region to the top global ranking Million tonnes Sulphur supply by region, % Oceania Africa 3.9 South East Asia 10.7 Central Europe 10.3 Latin America South Asia 11.3 West Europe 10.3 East Asia FSU North America Middle East Source: Integer
10 Gas based sulphur production has continued to grow through the year, forecast to represent over 50% of global output Million tonnes Oceania Africa South East Asia Central Europe Latin America South Asia West Europe East Asia FSU North America Middle East Global Sulphur Production, 2016 Other 5.0% 43.4% 51.6% Oil based sulphur Gas based sulphur Global sulphur production by type (%) Oil based Gas based Other Source: Integer
11 What does the low oil price environment mean for the sulphur industry? US$/bbl % Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Brent crude oil price, June 2014 October 2016 Source: Integer, Bloomberg Brent crude prices have been rising since the start of 2016, aiding a more stable outlook but downward pressure remains
12 Sulphur production in the Midwest and Gulf Coast continues to recover, leading to a net increase in US sulphur output 000 tonnes USA: Total sulphur production by PADD (1 5), for H vs H H H PADD 2: Midwest H H , , PADD 4+5: Rocky Mountain/West Coast 2,430 2, H H Sulphur from Natural Gas Sulphur from Petroleum and Coke H H PADD 3: Gulf Coast PADD 1: East Coast Source: Integer, USGS
13 As many oil sands projects have become unfeasible in the low oil price environment, the outlook for Canadian energy has shifted Million bbl/d 6.5 Canadian crude oil production forecast, Extra growth anticipated in 2014 forecast Pentanes/Condensate Eastern Canada Conventional Light and Medium Conventional Heavy Oil sands (operating + in construction) Source: Integer, CAPP (June 2016)
14 Canadian gas production is expected to continue to decrease, leading to a net decline in sulphur output for North America in the outlook Million tonnes Canadian sulphur production, Oil Oilsands Gas Limited growth from the oilsands sector Depletion of wells and challenging economics 3 Impact on sulphur exports from Vancouver Utilization of long term sulphur storage Increase in forming facilities Source: Integer
15 Trade: changing dynamics
16 China remains a central focus for sulphur trade Million tonnes Annual Chinese sulphur imports, M % Jan Sept 2015 Jan Sept 2016 Source: Integer, GTIS
17 China supply sources continue to shift through Saudi Arabia remains the number one supplier while molten sulphur supply from Japan and South Korea increased by over 30% Million tonnes China monthly sulphur imports, January 2015 September Rest of the World India Canada Japan South Korea Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Qatar Iran UAE Saudi Arabia Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Source: Integer, GTIS
18 Moroccan sulphur imports have grown through the year as new processed phosphates capacity has been brought online Million tonnes 0.6 Rest of the World United States 0.5 Saudi Arabia Spain Poland UAE 0.42 Russia 0.45 Morocco monthly sulphur imports, January August 2015 vs Jan 15 Jan 16 Feb 15 Feb 16 Mar 15 Mar 16 Apr 15 Apr 16 May 15 May 16 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jul 15 Jul 16 Aug 15 Aug 16 Source: Integer, GTIS
19 Moroccan sulphur imports have grown through the year as new processed phosphates capacity has been brought online Million tonnes 0.6 Rest of the World United States 0.5 Saudi Arabia Spain Poland UAE Russia 0.45 Morocco monthly sulphur imports, January August 2015 vs Imports from the UAE have increased 48% Tonnes from Poland have also increased, up by 23% Shipments from the US have increased significantly, up by 63% 0.2 Russian imports have dropped by 32% 27% drop in trade from Kuwait % drop from Saudi Arabia. Volumes from Europe have also been declining 0.0 Jan 15 Jan 16 Feb 15 Feb 16 Mar 15 Mar 16 Apr 15 Apr 16 May 15 May 16 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jul 15 Jul 16 Aug 15 Aug 16 Source: Integer, GTIS
20 We expect the US share of Canadian sulphur trade to decline in the outlook Sulphur exports from Canada, 2015 Canada 30% United States Mexico 10% China 20% Brazil Chile 5% 1% Australia 20% Source: Integer, Port Metro
21 Vancouver exports have improved following the production disruption earlier in the year. Exports to China have gained ground through tonnes Vancouver monthly sulphur exports, January August , % 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , , Vietnam Guatemala New Zealand USA Morocco Brazil Israel Indonesia New Caledonia Mexico Chile Cuba Australia China Despite the disruption to oilsands production in Q due to the Fort McMurray wildfires, sulphur exports out of Vancouver have firmed Jan Aug 2015 Jan Aug 2016 Source: Integer, Port Metro, Company Sources
22 Demand
23 Sulphur demand is set to grow by over 2% year on year in 2016, led by developments in Africa Million tonnes Sulphur demand by region, % Central Europe Oceania Southeast Asia Middle East West Europe South Asia Latin America FSU Africa North America East Asia Source: Integer
24 Integer forecasts around 4 million tonnes of sulphur demand will emerge over the next ten years in the nonfertilizer sector 000 tonnes Net sulphur non fertilizer demand growth between 2016 and 2026, split by region 4,037 East Asia, led by China, and the FSU, led by Kazakhstan show the largest growth over the forecast period 1,738 Non fertilizer demand for sulphur is expected to decrease in Central Europe 1, Central Europe West Europe Latin America Middle East South East Asia Oceania Africa South Asia North America FSU East Asia Net addition 2026 from 2016 Source: Integer
25 Global sulphur balance
26 The market remains largely balanced in our upside scenario, while the base case surplus hovers around 3 4 million tonnes through the medium term forecast period Million tonnes Global sulphur supply/demand balance, Base case scenario Slow growth scenario Source: Integer
27 Conclusions
28 Key factors influencing long term sulphur market trends Utilization of long term sulphur storage Investment in energy sector shifts in oil prices to impact Development in processed phosphates markets End user ability to switch between sulphur and sulphuric acid Metals markets and commodity pricing for non fertilizer demand Continued rise of new Middle East supply Domestic sulphur production in China Source: Integer
29 Thank you for your attention Any questions? Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid research.com +44 (0) All data in the presentation is taken from Integer s Sulphur Market Dynamics Service
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