Potash Outlook. Kevin Stone Natural Resources Canada. TFI Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida November 16, 2016

Transcription

1 1 Potash Outlook Kevin Stone Natural Resources Canada TFI Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida November 16, 2016

2 2 Outline Historical Consumption and Supply Outlook for Demand and Supply Demand Fundamentals Major Consuming Countries Major Suppliers Summary

3 3 Historical Potash Consumption and Supply

4 4 Historical Consumption World Potash Consumption (000 t K 2 O) 35,000 30,000 25,000 22,095 22,855 23,398 26,148 27,654 25,967 26,674 28,793 24,358 22,535 27,294 28,837 29,262 30,495 32,294 32, tonnes K2O 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Sources: IFA, NRCan

5 5 Historical Production 45,000 World Potash Production (000 t K 2 O) 40,000 38,628 38, tonnes K2O 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 25,874 25,859 26,468 27,967 31,167 32,794 29,426 33,531 32,498 19,126 31,767 34,372 32,048 33,610 15,000 10,000 5,000 Sources: IFA, NRCan

6 6 Supply Exceeded Consumption 10,000 World Potash Supply/Use Balance (000 t K 2 O) 000 tonnes K2O 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 3,779 3,004 3,071 1,818 3,513 6,826 2,752 4,738 8,140 4,473 5,535 2,786 3,195 6,334 6, ,000 4,000 3,408 Sources: IFA, NRCan

7 7 Outlook for Demand and Supply

8 8 Demand Outlook 45,000 Demand Forecast (000 t K 2 O) 40,000 35,000 6,200 6,300 6,400 6,500 6,700 30, t K2O 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 32,700 33,700 34,700 35,600 36, Demand for Fertilizer Demand for Industrial Use Sources: IFA, NRCan

9 9 Supply Outlook 000 t K2O 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Potential Supply (000 t K 2 O) 64,500 61,600 62,100 58,100 56,000 49,700 51,000 47,200 44,900 42,800 43,200 44,300 40,800 38,600 36, Capacity Supply Available for Fertilizer Sources: IFA, NRCan

10 10 Forecast Oversupply 000 tonnes K2O 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Demand/Supply Balance for Fertilizer Use (000 t K 2 O) 43,200 44,300 40,800 38,600 36,600 32,700 33,700 34,700 35,600 36, Supply for Fertilizer Demand for Fertilizer Sources: IFA, NRCan

11 11 Actual Oversupply and Forecast 10,000 Oversupply Forecast (000 t K 2 O) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 3,779 3,004 3,071 1,818 3,513 6,826 2,752 4,738 8,140 5,535 4,473 2,786 3,195 6,334 6,583 4,900 3,900 7,600 7,800 6,100 Forecast ,000 4,000 3,408 Sources: IFA, NRCan

12 12 Demand Fundamentals

13 13 Population Growth World Population Growth (billion) Billion Forecast Source: UN

14 14 World Arable Land 1,440 World Arable Land (million hectares) 1,420 1,400 1,380 Million hectares 1,360 1,340 1,320 1,300 1,280 1,260 1,240 1, Source: FAO

15 15 Arable Land Per Person 1.00 Hectares of Arable Land Per Person Hectares Source: World Bank World Average Arable Land per Person China India Brazil USA

16 16 Potash Use by Crop Global Potash Use by Crops, 2010/11 Sugar Crops 8% Other Crops 15% Cereals: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Others 37% Fruits and Vegetables 20% Source: IFA Oilseeds: Soybean, Oil Palm and Others 20%

17 17 Grain Production 2,500 World Grain Production (million tonnes) 2,000 million tonnes 1,500 1,000 Forecast 500 Source: USDA Wheat and Coarse Grain Rice Milled

18 18 Fruit and Vegetables Production 2,000 World Fruit and Vegetables Production (million tonnes) 1,800 1,600 1,400 million tonnes 1,200 1, Source: FAO Vegetables and Melons Fruit Excluding Melons Citrus Fruit

19 19 Oilseeds Production 600 World Oilseeds Production (million tonnes) million tonnes Forecast 0 Source: USDA

20 20 Major Consuming Countries

21 21 China 12,000 Production, Imports and Consumption (000 t K 2 O) 10,000 8,000 tonnes K2O 6,000 4,000 2, Sources: FAO, IFA Production Imports Consumption

22 22 China Demand/Supply Outlook 12,000 Forecast: Production, Imports and Demand (000 t K 2 O) 10,000 8, t K2O 6,000 4,000 2,000 Forecast Production Imports Demand Sources: FAO, IFA

23 23 United States 7,000 Production, Imports and Consumption (000 t K 2 O) 6,000 5, t K2O 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Sources: FAO, IFA Production Imports Consumption

24 24 Brazil 6,000 Production, Imports and Consumption (000 t K 2 O) 5,000 4, t K2O 3,000 2,000 1, Sources: FAO, IFA Production Imports Consumption

25 25 India 4,000 Imports and Consumption (000 t K 2 O) 3,500 3,000 2, t K2O 2,000 1,500 1, Imports Consumption Sources: FAO, IFA

26 26

27 27 Malaysia and Indonesia 3,500 Imports and Consumption (000 t K 2 O) 3,000 2, t K2O 2,000 1,500 1, Imports Consumption Sources: FAO, IFA

28 28 Major Suppliers

29 29 Canada Production and Exports (000 t K 2 O) 12,000 10,000 8,361 9,229 10,332 10,140 9,648 9,684 8,518 11,085 10,379 10,591 10,121 9,700 9,443 10,686 10,404 8,976 10,196 9,829 10,818 11,350 10,602 10,967 8,000 8,455 8,515 8,333 8, t K2O 6,000 4,000 4,297 4,176 2, e Sources: NRCan Production Exports

30 30 Forecast Methodology: Potential production is based on average of the actual operating rates in the last five years.

31 31 Canada - Supply Outlook 25,000 Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K 2 O) 22,003 22,558 22,558 22,558 22,558 20,000 17,633 19,000 17,074 17,505 17,505 17,505 17, t K2O 15,000 10,000 12,688 11,638 13,847 12,540 14,522 14,888 14,888 14,888 14,888 5,000 10,818 11,350 65% 5, Sources: NRCan Capacity Actual Production Capability Production Potential

32 32 Russia Production and Exports (000 t K 2 O) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,599 6,266 5,724 6,373 5,935 6,128 6,526 5,460 6,000 7,260 6,221 6, t K2O 5,000 4,000 3,000 4,432 3,227 4,653 3,732 4,570 5,325 4,989 5,403 5,159 3,691 5,021 5,460 4,382 4,815 5,493 2,000 2,643 1, Production Exports Sources: IFA, NRCan

33 33 Russia - Supply Outlook 12,000 Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K 2 O) 10,000 9,810 9,810 9,510 9, t K2O 8,000 6,000 7,470 7,260 6,125 6,665 6,125 6,000 8,829 8,829 8,559 8,559 4,000 2,000 90% Sources: NRCan Capacity Actual Production Production Potential

34 34 Belarus Production and Exports (000 t K 2 O) t K2O Production Exports Sources: IFA, NRCan

35 35 Belarus - Supply Outlook 10,000 9,000 8,000 Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K 2 O) 7,600 7,620 7,680 7,740 7,800 8,800 8, t K2O 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 6,202 6,297 6,374 6,424 6,474 7,304 7,304 83% Sources: NRCan Capacity Actual Production Production Potential

36 36 ICL Production and Exports (000 t K 2 O) 3,500 3,000 3,160 2,962 3,094 3, t K2O 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2,138 2,224 1,918 1,958 1,752 1,872 1,897 1,844 2,123 2,146 2,134 2,052 1,821 1,346 2,466 1,537 2,551 2,812 2,556 2,734 2,313 2,643 2,517 2, Production Exports Sources: IFA, NRCan

37 37 ICL - Supply Outlook 4,500 4,000 Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K 2 O) 3,829 3,840 3,851 3,862 3,884 3,884 3,884 3, t K2O 3,000 2,500 2,000 3,086 2,518 2,850 2,858 2,874 2,874 2,874 1,500 1,000 74% Sources: NRCan Capacity Actual Production Production Potential

38 38 Germany Production and Exports (000 t K 2 O) 4,000 3,626 3,565 3,626 3,665 3,616 3, t K2O 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 2,868 2,981 3,025 2,980 3,015 3,033 3,285 2,523 1,789 1,585 2,962 3,106 3,056 2,968 2,730 2,784 2,443 2,502 3,053 3,055 2,642 2,715 1, Sources: IFA, NRCan Production K2O Exports

39 39 Germany - Supply Outlook 4,500 4,000 3,500 4,250 4,250 Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K 2 O) 3,650 3,650 3,650 3,650 3, t K2O 3,000 2,500 2,000 3,053 3,055 2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628 1,500 1,000 72% Sources: NRCan Capacity Actual Production Production Potential

40 40 Summary Demand is projected to grow at a slow pace of 2.3% per year between 2016 and 2020 Supply growth is projected to increase at 2.5% per year for the same period Capacity is projected to grow at 4.5% per year between 2016 and 2020 Global operating rate is forecast to be lower than 80% per year between 2016 and 2020 (86% in ) Oversupply is projected to follow the historical trend Bottom line is both demand and supply will grow, but just at slower pace

41 41 Contact Kevin Stone Senior Advisor Mineral and Metal Sector Natural Resources Canada Telephone: