Here We Grow Again A Regional Perspective Where will they live? David A. Cobb February 20, 2015

Transcription

1 Here We Grow Again A Regional Perspective Where will they live? David A. Cobb dcobb@metrostudy.com February 20, 2015

2 After 7 Years of Famine, Nearly 1 Million Housing Starts Starts History and Forecast Single Family Multi-family 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Metrostudy National Housing Market 2

3 Home Closings 8,000,000 7,000,000 18% 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Resales Are at Fairly Strong Levels, While REO Sales Are Diminishing and New Homes Finally Ticking Up National Annualized Home Closings by Type, 2006-September 2014 Charlotte County New Home Market Share: 3% Lee County: 9% Collier County: 11% Tax Credit Expiration Activity has Levelled Off This Year, New Sale Share Stabilized but below 10% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% New Home Share 8% Source: Metrostudy Regular Resale REO Sale New Sale New Sale Share National Housing Market 3

4 In the New Home Market, Lower Priced Homes Have Diminished in Share New Closings by Price Distribution, Nationwide, % over $350K 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Source: Metrostudy $0k-$150k $150k-$350k $350k-$650k $650k+ National Housing Market 4

5 And Homes Are Getting Larger Single Family Home Sizes and Personal Income Personal Income Median Sq Ft Average Sq Ft Recession Billions National Housing Market 5

6 Big Builders Continue to Gain Share National Housing Market 6

7 Apartments Vacancies Should Remain Low As Demand Is Fueled by Millennials Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, October 2013 National Housing Market 7

8 Millennials and the Market 80M strong Millennial Homeownership rate: 30% Boomer homeownership: 70-80% Will behave like their Boomer parents, just 5 10 years later Will become a significant factor in the housing market in 3 5 years Then likely to dominate the housing market for the next 25+ years National Housing Market 8

9 Boomerang Buyers Source: U.S. Census, realtytrac.com National Housing Market 9

10 An Eight Year Wave of Buyers National Housing Market 10

11 National Housing Market 11

12 Growth Will Be Most Reliable in Healthier Markets Source: Metrostudy Home Building Outlook Report National Housing Market 12

13 Top 10 Healthiest Markets 1. The Villages, FL 2. Provo-Orem, UT 3. Fort Collins, CO 4. Austin-Round Rock, TX 5. Salt Lake City, UT 6. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL 7. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL 8. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 9. Greeley, CO 10.St. George, UT Source: Metrostudy Home Building Outlook Report National Housing Market 13

14 Fundamentals Are Bright to Maintain Slow But Steady Momentum, and Grow in 2015 Baby Boomers are not getting younger yet feel more confident to invest in new homes and/or discretionary home improvements Consumer confidence and sense of financial stability are more important now than jobs, unemployment, or GDP to remodeling and replacement markets Postponed remodeling and replacement projects are coming due just as home equity increases (and stock portfolios) Housing demand has shifted to higher price points, and correspondingly consumers are wanting better and bigger. But for volumes to increase, lower price options need to come back National Housing Market 14

15 721,000 Single Family Starts Forecasted for 2015, Still Below 50+ Year Average 2,000 Single Family Starts History and Forecast 1,800 1,600 1,400 1, year average million Forecast 1, Source: Commerce Department; Metrostudy Forecast National Housing Market 15

16 Multi-Family Recovery Still Below Historical Standards - Room for Growth 1,200 Multi-Family Starts History and Forecast 1, Year Average: 421,000 Forecast Source: Commerce Department; Metrostudy Forecast National Housing Market 16

17 2015 Forecast 1,080,000 SF/MF starts o Up 10% y-o-y o Includes rentals 504,000 new home sales o Excludes owner builds 11,133,698 REMODELS National Housing Market 17

18 Southwest Florida Region February 20, 2015 David Cobb

19 Southwest Florida Charlotte Lee Collier 19

20 Charlotte County 20

21 Charlotte Demographics 21

22 Charlotte Demographics 22

23 Charlotte Demographics 23

24 Charlotte Single Family Starts & Closings since 2001 Starts Avg: 682 Current: 260 (38%) 24

25 Over 250,000 platted lots 150,000+ are vacant 25

26 Lots of lots!!! Rotunda 13,389 Port Charlotte 100,000+ Punta Gorda Isles 1,304 South Gulf Cove 10,806 Burnt Store/Tern Bay 2,986 At current starts pace.577 Years Supply 26

27 But there s more!!! Rotunda 236 Tern Bay 1,085 Burnt Store 261 Tucker s Grade 999 Babcock Ranch 14,870 Charlotte Future Lot Supply: 18,531 An additional 71 Years Supply 27

28 Babcock Ranch coming soon 28

29 The City of Babcock Ranch World s most sustainable city 74,000 acres of preserve 17,000 acres to be developed Solar powered city 75 mw array, largest in the world 5M square feet of commercial 20,000 permanent jobs IBM Smart City 45,000 residents, over 17,000 homes 29

30 Lee County 30

31 Lee Demographics 31

32 Lee Demographics 32

33 Lee Demographics 33

34 Lee Single Family Starts & Closings since 2001 Starts Avg: 2,616 Current: 2,095 (80%) 34

35 Built-out Master-planned Communities since

36 Active Master-planned Communities Vacant, Developed Lots: 6, Months Supply A Location Supply: 2,197 (32%) 36

37 Single Family Future Master Planned Communities 200+ lots Total Future Lots: 32,578 a 15 years supply at current starts pace 37

38 Lee Future Lots 200+ Eastwood Village *Bonita Bay Group 2500 Babcock Ranch *Syd Kitson 1950 Bonita National *Lennar Homes 1684 Heritage Creek RPD * 1275 Northbrook * 1255 Savanna Lakes *Lennar Homes 1200 Center Place * 1000 Section 10 Lehigh/MF * 990 Lindsford *D.R. Horton Homes 979 Entrada Estates *Entrada Estates LLC 942 Oak Creek/SF *Americrest Homes 855 Section 10 Lehigh/SF * 760 Copperhead G & CC/Future *EH Building Group LLC 717 Buckingham Villages (TH) * 631 Corkscrew Crossings *Newport Bay 586 Sloane's Gate * 561 Estero on the River MPD * 530 Sunset Falls/TH *Watermen Dev Group 523 Heritage Isles *Lennar Homes

39 Lehigh Acres Master-planned communities? 39

40 Cape Coral 40

41 Lehigh Acres 41

42 Lee Condo Starts & Closings since 2001 Annual Starts Avg: 1,890 Current Pace: 608 (32%) 42

43 Future Condo locations 43

44 Typical Condo product Source: DR Horton 44

45 Collier County 45

46 Collier Demographics 46

47 Collier Demographics 47

48 Collier Demographics 48

49 Collier Single Family Starts & Closings since 2001 Starts Avg: 1,694 Current: 1,988 (117%) 49

50 Collier Built-out Master-planned Communities since

51 Collier Active Communities Vacant, Developed Lots: 4, Months Supply 51

52 Collier Single Family Future Lots Map 200+ Big Cypress 9,000 Ave Maria 9,000 Total Future Lots: 33,166 a 16 years supply at current starts pace 52

53 Collier Single Family Future Lots 200+ Subdivision Developer Future Lot Count Big Cypress *Collier Enterprises 9000 Ave Maria/Future *Del Webb 6558 Esplanade Hacienda Lakes *Taylor Morrison 1608 Parklands Development/MF *Parklands Assocoates I, 1480 LLP - owner Ave Maria/Del Webb/Future *Del Webb 1315 Fiddler's Creek/Oyster Harbor *Taylor Morrison 1200 Naples Reserve *SFI Naples Reserve, LLC 1154 Ave Maria/Maple Ridge/Future *CC Devco 790 Greyhawk at Golf Club of the *Pulte 750 Everglades Winding Cypress/Futures *DiVosta Homes 650 Valencia G & CC/Futures *D.R. Horton Homes 363 San Marino * 361 Artesia/Futures * 340 Falls of Portofino (TH) *Prime Homebuilders 250 LaMorada *WCI Communities 224 Orange Blossom Grove * 223 Marbella Isles *GL Homes 200 Marbella Isles *GL Homes 161 Marbella Isles *GL Homes 105 Raffia Preserve * 82 53

54 Golden Gate/GG Estates 54

55 Collier Condo Starts & Closings since 2001 Annual Starts Avg: 1,224 Current Pace: 490 (40%) 55

56 Collier Condo Future Units Map 56

57 Collier Condo Future Units Subdivision Developer Future Unit Count Kalea Bay *Signature Communities 582 Taormina Reserve * 528 Rockedge RPUD *Woodfield Builders LLC 400 Hammock Bay G & CC/Ilaria *WCI Communities 116 Solstice RPUD *Cirrus Pointe Partners 108 LLC Della Rosa *PAGE DEVELOPMENT 107 CORP OF SW FLORIDA INC Naples Square *Ronto Group 77 Naples Square *Ronto Group 77 Naples Square *Ronto Group 77 Pelican Bay/Cap D'Antibes *Gulf Bay Group of 76 Companies Pelican Bay/Cap D'Antibes *Gulf Bay Group of 76 Companies Hamilton Greens *Zuckerman Group 72 Windstar/Regatta Landing * 64 Port of the Islands/Retreat del Sol *PORT OF THE ISLANDS PROPERTIES LLC 50 Port of the Islands/Retreat del Sol *PORT OF THE ISLANDS PROPERTIES LLC 30 The Residences at Mercato *Lutgert Companies 19 Talis Park/Residences at Vyne House *Kitson & Partners 14 57

58 and now you know!

59 Thank you!