Where We Were. CRFB.org

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1

2 Where We Were 1

3 Trump Entered Office With Debt At Post WWII Record-High Levels 120% 100% Percent of GDP Truman 103% 80% Trump 77% 60% Bush Obama 40% 20% Eisenhower JFK Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Clinton Bush 0% Axis Title Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 4

4 Deficits Were Already High and Rising $1,600 $1,400 Billions 2009, $1, , $1,463 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $ , $ , $ , $1,027 $ , $413 $200 $ Sources: CBO June Baseline, CRFB calculations.

5 Major Trust Funds Were Heading Toward Insolvency Trust Fund Exhaustion Date (CBO Est)* Highway Trust Fund (combined) 2021 Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund Social Security Disability Insurance Fund Social Security Old Age & Survivors Insurance Trust Fund Addendum: Theoretical Combined Social Security Trust Funds Annual Deficit In Exhaustion Year $18 billion (0.1% of GDP) $62 billion (0.2% of GDP) $31 billion (0.1% of GDP) $530 billion (1.6% of GDP) $510 billion (1.6% of GDP) Percent Cut At Insolvency 32% 13% 17% 29% 25% *The Social Security and Medicare Trustees project similar but somewhat later exhaustion dates 4

6 Fiscal Space Was Diminishing Fiscal Space Until Debt Reaches Record Set in WWII (Percent of GDP) 5 Sources: CBO, CRFB calculations.

7 We Just Passed a YUGE Tax Cut 6

8 Where We Are Now & Where We re Headed 7

9 Billions of Dollars $1,200 Projected Annual Budget Deficits (Pre- Tax Cuts) $1,000 $800 $600 $666 billion $781 billion $400 $200 $ Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

10 Billions of Dollars $1,200 Projected Annual Budget Deficits (Post- Tax Cuts) $1,000 $1.05 trillion $800 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act $600 $400 $200 $ Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

11 Projected Annual Budget Deficits (Post-Tax Cuts, Assuming New Spending) Billions of Dollars $1,200 $1.08 trillion $1,000 Sequester & Disaster Relief $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

12 Billions of Dollars $1,200 $1,000 Projected Annual Budget Deficits (Post-Everything) Tax Extenders, Obamacare Taxes, etc. $1.11 trillion $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

13 IN OTHER WORDS: TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS MAY RETURN NEXT YEAR 12

14 Billions of Dollars Projected Annual Budget Deficits (Post-Everything) $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $1.1 Trillion $1.5 Trillion $ Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

15 Billions of Dollars $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 Projected Annual Budget Deficits (Post-Everything, With Extensions) Make All Policies Permanent $2.1 trillion $ Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

16 IN OTHER WORDS: WE MAY HIT TWO TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS BY

17 Percent of GDP 110% Debt-to-GDP Will Rise to Record Levels 108% 100% 90% 98% 97% 96% 91% 80% 70% Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

18 Dynamic Scoring Doesn t Change the Picture Much Percent of GDP 110% 105% 100% 90% 97% 96% 95% 91% 80% 70% Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

19 Dynamic Scoring Doesn t Change the Picture Much

20 Deficit Reduction Just Got WAY Harder 60% of GDP 70% of GDP 77% of GDP 90% of GDP Pre-Tax Bill $8.8 trillion $6.0 trillion $4.1 trillion $0.4 trillion Post-Tax Bill $10.1 trillion $7.3 trillion $5.4 trillion $1.7 trillion Post-Everything, All Policies Enacted and Extended $13.4 trillion $10.6 trillion $8.7 trillion $5.0 trillion Total Spending Cuts in President s FY2018 Budget: $3.6 Trillion ($2.9 Trillion, Net) Total Spending Cuts in FY2018 Budget Resolution: ~$4 Trillion (most unspecified) Total Spending Cuts Reconciled in House FY2018 Budget Resolution: $203 Billion Total Spending Cuts & Tax Increases in Final Obama Budget: $4.1 Trillion ($2.4 Trillion, Net) Note: estimates exclude Obamacare changes, which included spending cuts and tax cuts

21 Percent of GDP 25% Spending and Revenue Are Diverging, Rapidly 24.3% 22% Spending 7.5% 19% 3.5% 16% Revenue 16.8% 13% Pre-TCJA Post-TCJA All Policies Enacted and Extended 10% Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

22 Entitlements Are Growing Fast, Interest Costs Are Exploding Percent of GDP 10% 8% 6% Health Care Social Security Discretionary 4% 2% Other Mandatory 0% Sources: Congressional Budget Office.

23 Percent of GDP 180% 160% 140% 120% Long-Term Debt Could Get Much Worse Actual Projected All Policies Enacted and Extended Post-TCJA 100% 80% Pre-TCJA 60% 40% 20% 0% Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

24 We Need a Fiscal Turn-Around 23

25 Percent of GDP 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% The First Step is to Stop Digging Actual Projected All Policies Enacted and Extended Post-TCJA Pre-TCJA 35% 0% Sources: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee data.

26 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% Revenue as a Percent of GDP We Need WAY More Revenue Current Law Current Law, Tax Cuts Extended Pre-Tax Cuts Revenue Level in Simpson-Bowles "Bipartisan Path Forward" 19.2% 18.4% 17.2% 10.0%

27 Entitlement Reform Is As Important as Ever Population 65 or Older (in Millions) Actual Projected 95 or Older 85 to to to

28 We re Running Out of Time

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