Climate variability and expected changes in Albania

Transcription

1 Workshop on climate risks and vulnerabilities of Albania s energy sector Climate variability and expected changes in Albania Eglantina Demiraj Bruci Climate Change Programme, MoEFWA 10 March 2009, Tirana International Hotel

2 Content 1. Present climate 2. Expected climate changes 3. Likely impacts of climate changes 4. Time to adapt

3 1. Present climate typically Mediterranean, characterized by mild winters with abundant precipitation and hot, dry summers. very broken orography, values of some climatic elements (precipitation, temperature etc.) very different from one region to another.

4 Present climate temperature air variation over the territory from 7 C over the highest zones up to 15 C on the coastal zone; up to 16 C in south- west. almost stable (12-14 C) along the lowland Source: Albania s FNC to UNFCCC

5 Interannual: air temperature variability around normal value with distinct periods of reverse trends. last 15 s - increasing trend (increase in both maximum and minimum daily temperatures, especially in summer. after several s- increasing rate of minimum temperature, higher than that of maximum in summer. temp.anomaly temp.anomaly Shkoder R 2 = anomaly Kukes Poly. (anomaly) R 2 = anomaly Poly. (anomaly) temp. deviation ( C) anomaliy ( C) annnual air temperature anomaly, Lezha temp.dev Tirana Poly. (temp.dev.)

6 precipitation 42.5 Precipitation total : up to 1300 mm/ ( 1360 up to 1470 mm/). The highest value, about 66 % of the total- during the cold months (October-March). The wettest months : November-December, the driest : July-August

7 precipitation Durres R 2 = Vlore R 2 = anomaly anomaly Korce Tirana - city R 2 = anomaly 1.6 R 2 = anomaly Source: Albania s FNC to UNFCCC clear evidence of climate variability. Extreme events (heavy rains, floods and drought) are not rare phenomena for the area - part of this variability.

8 Present climate extraordinary event

9 2.Expected climate changes Low resolution projections Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005 HAD300

10 2.Expected climate changes Low resolution projections Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005

11 Expected climate changes Seasonal changes Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005

12 High resolution air temperature (1.5 m) Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005

13 Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005 Air temperature

14 Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005 Total precipitation rate

15 3.Expected climate changes change (%) change ( C) Annual changes in temperature annual changes in precipitation change (%) change ( C) Changes in temperature, summer Changes in precipitation, summer !!!! Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation!!!! The annual increase in temperature : 1.0, 2.0 and 4.1 C respectively by 2025, 2050 and 2100 Decrease in annual precipitation: up to 3.0%, 6.1% and 12.4% respectively by 2025, 2050 and 2100!!!! may expect: milder winter, warmer springs, hotter and drier summers and autumn. Source: Bruci, in V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009, draft

16 3.Expected climate changes Source: Bruci, in V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009,draft

17 Expected climate changes Relative Sea level change since 1995 (cm) MAGICC DIVA coast floodplain area net loss of wetland area Source: Bruci, in V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009,draft

18 3. Likely impacts of CC change (%) annual runoff changes change (%) winter changes, runoff spring changes, runoff summer changes, runoff change (%) change (%) Source: V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009, draft

19 Likely impacts a general drying over the study area during summer. (combination of the increased temperature and potential evaporation that is not balanced by the increases of precipitation). increases in the heat index (because of changes in surface air temperature and humidity). More hot days and heat waves are very likely. These increases are projected to be largest mainly in areas where soil moisture decreases occur. More frequent and severe droughts with greater fire risk are likely. Frost days and cold waves are very likely to become fewer.

20 Likely impacts of CC Decrease in runoff, both annual and seasonal A decrease of 20% in runoff a reduction of 60% in power generation (FNC report) Because of the reduction of stream flows in the wetlands, western part of Albania would experience both increasing demands for water and reduced supply of water, which would decrease wetland area. Increase in the frequency of extreme events may mean an under designed reservoir or spillway with potential flood risk not only changes in total water amount and levels, but also erosion of riverbeds, and modification of turbidity and sediment load.

21 Time to adapt Key Message Adaptation actions should be integrated into development policy and planning at every level. This will incur incremental adaptation costs relative to plans that ignore climate change. But ignoring climate change is not a viable option inaction will be far more costly than adaptation. Source: Stern Review. Part V: Policy Responses for Adaptation. 20 Adaptation in the developing world.

22 Some publications Second National Communication GHGs inventory Mitigation V&A

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