Today. Decline of Parties. Machines New Deal Realignment. In Electorate In Nominations In Government?

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1 Today Decline of Parties In Electorate In Nominations In Government? Machines New Deal Realignment

2 The New Deal Party System Crash and Depression Hoover s cautious response, Roosevelt s cautious campaign Election of 1932 New Party Alignment Democrats: Catholic, Jewish, urban, labor, working class, blacks Republicans: professions, business, rich, native rural Protestants New Cleavage: Government Role in Economy & Income Democratic Party s long return to dominance Sources of Democratic Coalition Stability FDR appeal, depression efforts, war leadership State control and seniority incentives Historical legacy label, exclusion of blacks

3 Consolidation and Change Consolidation in North and South Postwar Southern Politics Rise of the New South Third party defections in 1948, 1968 New era of ticket-splitting Turning points: 1958 midterms, Goldwater campaign (1964) Fusion of racial and economic ideology (ambitious politicians) Transformation into competitive party politics New Supplemental Cleavages/Issues Cold War New Social Issues (law & order, race, environment, education) New Cultural Issues (abortion, family values, religion, sex)

4 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Democratic Presidential Vote, Border South vs. Deep South Deep South Average Border South Average

5 Republican Officeholding in the South, Governorships U.S. House and Senate Seats State House and Senate Seats Proportion of Seats Held by GOP

6 Choosing the Chosen Nomination Process Reform

7 Choosing the Chosen Importance of Recruitment & Nomination Process Political Leadership Qualities of the Process Open? Competitive? Rational? Democratic? Contemporary Complaints What It Takes: permanent campaign, money, loss of privacy What It Gives: pander & sidestep, quality of information, tone Effect of Selection Process on Kind of Leader

8 Evolution of Candidate Selection The Electoral College Hopes for a deliberative search committee Caucus and Convention System Legislative Caucus Delegate Convention System Party Primary Purpose of Primaries Mixed System: Primaries & Conventions

9

10 Turning Points 1960 John F. Kennedy Media savvy Lessons Popular outsider It s the Television, Stupid! (changing tools & changing rules) The Sixties: Radicals & Right-Wingers Barry Goldwater v. Nelson Rockefeller (1964) Johnson, Humphrey, McCarthy, Kennedy Democrats 68 The Chicago Convention

11 Recommendations for Reform Aftermath of 1968 McGovern-Fraser Commission ( ) Reform Proposals Public Notice Closed Primary Proportional Representation Modified Quotas New Incentives Encourage primaries Encourage better candidates

12 Party Reform Differences in Party Rules Democrats Openness requirements Proportional allocation + Minority/Woman quotas Republicans State deference Winner-take-all Rise of Primaries Application of new rules by state legislatures Mixture of open and closed primaries 1968: 17 (D), 16 (R), 41-43% of delegates 1980: 30 (D), 33 (R), 71-75% of delegates 1996: 34 (D), 41 (R), 62-81% of delegates 2000: 40 (D), 42 (R)

13 Carter 1976 An unknown: 4 years state senate + 4 as governor. What s my Line? Late % before Iowa. Winning elements: Time. Early Entry. Momentum.Iowa..New Hampshire = 16% Scoop Jackson, George Wallace skip NH. Mo Udall 2 nd Lessons or Not Advantages outsiders. Party loses control.

14 No Repeat of Carter Others Catch on: 7 of 8 Contested Races won by pre-iowa Frontrunner 7 of 8 winners forecasted by $$$.

15 Presidential Primary Politics Frontloading Media and Momentum Impact of Frontloading Early withdrawal? Higher turnout? The Long Campaign

16 Frontloading: Clinching the Nomination 250 Republicans 200 Days until Nomination Clinched Democrats

17 Frontloading: Rate of Delegate Selection Delegates Chosen by End of Week Percentage of Delegates Democrats Republicans

18 Presidential Primary Politics Frontloading Media and Momentum Impact of Frontloading Early withdrawal? Higher turnout? The Long Campaign

19 U.S. Map Resized by Electoral College Vote (1984)

20 U.S. Map Resized by News Media Coverage of Nominations

21 Presidential Primary Politics Frontloading Media and Momentum Impact of Frontloading Early withdrawal? Higher turnout? The Long Campaign

22 OPEN QUESTIONS Do primaries give more power to extremists? What is the role of parties? Is the process representative?

23 New Hampshire Primary Voters (Compared to Same-Party Voters Elsewhere) REPUBLICANS Similar in race Similar in gender Younger Better educated Slightly wealthier More catholics, fewer protestants Larger share of independents Similar share of strong identifiers Smaller share of weak identifiers Similar ideology (labels) More pro-choice Less religious right DEMOCRATS Fewer (almost no) minorities Similar in gender Younger Better educated Considerably wealthier More catholics, fewer protestants Much larger share of independents Much smaller share of strong IDers Much smaller share of weak IDers More liberal, less conservative

24 Republican Activists Average Lib/Con Index Position Independents Republican Identifiers Democratic Identifiers 35 Democratic Activists Source: ANES Cumulative Data File. Note: Activists are defined as respondents who engaged in 3 or more campaign activities as coded in vcf0723.

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