Global Megatrends The 2012 Update of Our Future World

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1 Global Megatrends The 2012 Update of Our Future World Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz

2 Imagination is more important than knowledge - Albert Einstein Source: Wikimedia Commons Presentation title Presenter name Page 2

3 Different Types of Futures Possible Plausible Now Probable The Future Source: Voros (2003) adapted this diagram from Hancock and Bezold (1994) in the Healthcare Forum Journal

4 More Than Forecasting Actual oil price (other lines show predictions) Lynch, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

5 Megatrends

6 1. More From Less It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small. - Neil Armstrong

7 More From Less World Population Growth The world population is forecast to grow from 7.2 billion persons today to 8.1 billion in 2025 and 9.6 billion by 2050 Source: United Nations

8 More From Less Food Price Movements /08 Price Spike Between million people became malnourished (Headey, 2011). Feb 2011 Highest on record From 2003 to 2007, the number of undernourished people increased from some 848 million to 923 million, largely because of the food-price crisis during this period (FAO, 2008). Source: World Bank

More More From From Less Less Agricultural Land Estimated that 12 million hectares of productive agricultural land, capable of producing 20 million

9 More More From From Less Less Agricultural Land Estimated that 12 million hectares of productive agricultural land, capable of producing 20 million tonnes of grain, lost each year to land degradation (United Nations, 2011). Presentation title Presenter name Page 9 Image Source: NASA Terra Satellite

10 Australian Wheat Production (millions of tonnes) Global Cereals Price Index More From Less The best remedy for high food prices might be high food prices? Australian Wheat Production (Millions of Tonnes) Global Cereal Price Index Wheat Production Trendline Cereal Price Trendline Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

11 FAO Food Price Index World Crude Oil Price(USD per Barrel, Weighted by export volume) More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices Food Price Crude Oil Price

12 US Dollars Per Barrel More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices Average Crude Oil Price (US$/bbl)

13 World Energy Useage (Mtoe) More From Less Energy 6,000 5, Current Policies ,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011

14 More From Less Water Scarcity

15 Gold Ore Grade (g/t Au) More From Less Gold Ore Grade Data Source: United Nations Environment Program 2011, Metal Recycling Report

16 More From Less Extent of Mineral Resources in Emerging Economies Data Source: United States Geological Survey (2012)

17 2. Going, Going Gone?

18 Going, Going Gone? The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next years by the activities of a single species. Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

19 Going, Going Gone? Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

20 Going, Going Gone? Red List Red List Extinction Risk Index 1 = No concern 0 = Extinct Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010 Presentation title Presenter name Page 20

21 Going, Going... Gone? Staying Put Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

22 3. The Silk Highway

23 Debt to GDP (%) Exchange Rate GDP Growth Rate (%) Unemployment (%) The Silk Highway The Last 10 Years Have Been Good Down Under OECD members Australia OECD members Australia 60 OECD members Australia Source: World Bank

24 The Silk Highway A Shifting World Economy Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

urban planning network, http://www.upla.

25 The Silk Highway Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years Presentation title Presenter name Page 25 Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

26 The Silk Highway An Economy in Transition? Source: The Reserve Bank of Australia

27 Share of US Total in 2003 (percent) More From Less From selling ingots to selling ideas Share of Steel Making Capacity Share of Steel Technology Firms Chicago Pittsburgh Detroit Cleveland Source: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society; Treado (2009)

28 4. Forever Young As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others. - Audrey Hepburn

29 Forever Young The Ageing Population Australia Today we re some 14% over 65 yrs old It will be 25% by 2050 Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

30 Forever Young The Ageing Population in Japan By 2050 Japan s population will be 40% over 70 years old

31 Forever Young Retirement Savings Gap Tapered Retirement Source: Rice Warner

Forever Young The Rise of Chronic Illness In 2002 59% of deaths worldwide were

32 Forever Young The Rise of Chronic Illness In % of deaths worldwide were from noncommunicable illness. It will be 69% in Source: Mathers and Loncar, 2006.

33 Proportion of total population overweight Forever Young Diabetes and Overweight Projections 80% 70% 60% 50% USA England Canada 40% 30% Spain Austria Australia France Italy 20% Korea Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

34 Number of Competitors Forever Young Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged 35,000 30,000 25,000 Brisbane, Australia Melbourne, Australia Sydney, Australia 20,000 15,000 Edmonton, Canada 10,000 5,000 Toronto, Canada Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark Portland, Oregon, USA Data Source: World Masters Association

35 5. Virtually Here

Virtually Here The New Public Relations Challenge In 2009 United Airlines denied a damages claim made by a guitarist. He subsequently uploaded a song on youtube United Breaks Guitars.

36 Virtually Here The New Public Relations Challenge In 2009 United Airlines denied a damages claim made by a guitarist. He subsequently uploaded a song on youtube United Breaks Guitars. It was viewed over 12 million times. As it went viral the airline s stock dropped 10% costing US$180 million. Data source: World Economic Forum, Global Risk Reports Image source: Wikimedia

37 Retail Sales Volume Virtually Here The Growth of Online Retail Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales % 15% Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.

38 Virtually Here Catch me if you can New models of retail Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls, South Korea, 2011 Woolworths Virtual Grocery Walls, Sydney, 2012 The Age Image Source: Flickr.com and The Age

39 Virtually Here The Work (Live?) Anywhere City In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.

40 Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

41 Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month

42 Image Source: Wikipedia Commons Virtually Here Automation Outside the Factory

43 6. Great Expectations Now, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations. - Charles Dickens

44 Great Expectations Maslow s Hierarchy Self Actualization - Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts Esteem confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others Love and belonging Friendships, family, partnering Safety Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property Physiological Needs Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking

45 Material Consumption (metric tonnes per capita) Average GDP Per Capita for G8 Countries (excluding Russia) in 2000 USD Great Expectations Declining Material Consumption $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20, Domestic Material Consumption Income (GDP Per Capita) $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

46 Great Expectations Relative Decoupling Ratio of materials to GDP Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

47 Great Expectations The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being: Journal of Consumer Research Journal of Consumer Research Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology The Journal of Positive Psychology Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being Journal of Personality and Social Psychology The Journal of Positive Psychology Journal of Research in Personality 2003 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

48 Great Expectations Utility - A non-linear relationship Not likely Happiness (utility) More likely K Beers (schooners)

49 Experiencing the Experience Economy Joseph Pine and James Gilmore

50 Great Expectations Increasing Importance of the Whole Package Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue The Moral Dimension Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand

51 Great Expectations Social Interaction

52 Basic Expectations 24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990) 33% of people in urban slums 15.5 percent of the world s population (1 billion) hungry United Nations, 2012

53 Thank you Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Scientist t e stefan.hajkowicz@csiro.au w CSIRO FUTURES

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards