CFCs and Stratospheric Ozone. F. Sherwood Rowland Tokyo, Japan October 5, 2007

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1 CFCs and Stratospheric Ozone F. Sherwood Rowland Tokyo, Japan October 5, 2007

2 Dobson Götz Chapman International Ozone Conference, Oxford, U.K., 1936

3 USSR Australia Switzerland Peru Seasonal & Latitudinal Variations of Atmospheric Ozone (Dobson, 1968)

4 Lecture notes, F. S. Rowland, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, Feb. 1972

5 1973

6

7

8

9

10 Mario J. Molina & F. S. Rowland Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine, California Chlorofluoromethanes are being added to the environment in steadily increasing amounts. These compounds are chemically inert and may remain in the atmosphere for years, and concentrations can be expected to reach 10 to 30 times present levels. Photodissociation of the chlorofluoromethanes in the stratosphere produces significant amounts of chlorine atoms, and leads to the destruction of atmospheric ozone. Nature, June 28, 1974

11 The ozone problem O 3 absorbs the sun s UVC rays and most of the UVB rays Depletion of O 3 means more UVB reaching the ground More UVB means more skin cancer

12 ALTITUDE 50 CHLORINE ATOM PRODUCTION RATE CM -3 SEC ATMOSPHERES KM 30 B,C A LIFETIMES A 41 YEARS B 42 YEARS C 52 YEARS TROPOPAUSE A B C 1.0 CCl 3 F PPTV Calculated vertical profile for CCl 3 F, 30 N Rowland & Molina, Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 1975

13 NOAA, 1975

14

15 NAS Reports September 1976

16 September 13, 1976

17

18

19 TheTTT Ozone Hole: A hallenge for the The scientific Antarctic Ozone community Hole Observations made by Chubachi at the Observations Japanese made Antarctic by station Chubachi in Syowa at and the Japanese by Farman station and Syowa co-workers and at by the Farman British and coworkers Antarctic station the at British Halley Bay Antarctic showed a dramatic decrease of 50% or more in the station springtime of Halley (October) Bay show ozone a dramatic column. decrease in the ozone column during the 1970 s and 1970 s that is not simulated by atmospheric models. Chubachi Halley Station J. C. Farman, B. G. Gardiner, J. D. Shanklin

20 British Antarctic Survey Base, Halley Bay, Antarctica, 75.5 S

21 Farman et al., 1985

22 White spaces = no data

23

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25 HCl + ClONO 2 Cl 2 + HNO 3 H. SATO & F. S. ROWLAND 05/15/84 17:43:09 05/15/84 17:43:10 Add HCl 05/15/84 17:43:11 05/15/84 17:43:12 HNO 3 ClONO 2

26 0 CONNELL AND WUEBBLES,1984 (a) (b) (c) (a) 4.2% O 3 % (a) STANDARD CASE (b) H 2 O (c) HCl (b) 24.0% (c) 31.7% DATE FUTURE YEARS FROM (1983) H 2 O + ClONO 2 HOCl + HNO 3 HCl + ClONO 2 Cl 2 + HNO 3

27 50 Antarctic ClO (dezafra & P. Solomon 1987) 40 Altitude (Km) Mixing Ratio (ppb) O + O 3 2O 2 { 2O 3 3O 2 { Cl + O 3 ClO + O 2 ClO + O Cl + O 2 2[Cl + O 3 ClO + O 2 ] 2ClO ClOOCl ClOOCl + hν Cl + ClO 2 2Cl + O 2

28

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30 Mid-winter, 28 July DU 29 September 1999 Total Ozone 90 DU -- Temperature PSCs

31

32

33 PERCENT DIFFERENCE % TOTAL OZONE CHANGE WINTER (DJFM) ( ) MINUS ( ) NORTH LATITUDE

34 % OZONE CHANGES VERSUS LATITUDE ( ) MINUS (1969 & EARLIER)

35

36

37 The 2006 Science Assessment Worldwide effort involving >300 scientists as Cochairs, Lead Authors, Coauthors, Contributors, and Reviewers - MOST OF YOU ARE/WERE INVOLVED Now delivered to the Parties in response to their request (Terms of Reference, 15th MOP, Decision XV/53, November 2003) Fully reviewed three times by the international scientific community Is the 6th in the series of the SAP s assessments for the Parties QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture

38 Global Ozone Observations? 2010 There are early signs that the ozone layer is starting its expected recovery. A clear statement on recovery would require having a clear decrease in ozone AND Attribution of changes to all contributors Coupling and non-linearity

39 Ozone Hole October 8, 2005 Punta Arenas 156 D.U. Ushuaia 161 D.U. Halley Bay 113 D.U. Total Ozone (Dobson Units)

40

41 100 USHUAIA, ARGENTINA (55 S) AUSTRAL SPRING TOMS OZONE TOMS OZONE OCT. 20 OCT. 21 OCT. 23 NOV UV WAVELENGTH, NANOMETERS Surface UV-B intensities on 4 different days BIOSPHERIC INSTRUMENTS, INC.

42

43 280 CFC-11 (ppt) Concentration of CCl 3 F (CFC-11) vs. time. Units parts per Northern Hemisphere (blue), Global (green), Southern Hemisphere (red). Dutton et al., NOAA/CMDL

44 530 CFC-12 (ppt) Concentration of CCl 2 F 2 (CFC-12) vs. time. Units parts per Northern Hemisphere (blue), Global (green), Southern Hemisphere (red). Dutton et al., NOAA/CMDL

45

46 Keeling and Whorf, 2005 Mauna Loa, Hawaii (Red)

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48 IPCC Watts per square meter cooling warming

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50 Dead Spruce, Kenai peninsula 4,000,000 acres (16,000 sq.km.) 16 killed by Spruce Bark Beetle; Failure to winter kill with higher overnight temperatures NATIONALGEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE SEPTEMBER 2004

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52 Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference 14,000 Total Electricity Use, per capita, kwh 12,000 U.S. 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 California 8,000 7,000 4,000 2,000 0 KWh

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