RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
|
|
- Arline Tucker
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
2 CICA/RBC Q Business Monitor Economic Results Overview
3 Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism Business Optimism Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11
4 Key Metric Projections Are Positive And Consistent With Last Quarter 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Revenue Profit Number of Employees
5 World economy expected to post moderate growth in 2012 Advanced versus emerging economies GDP growth % change, year-over-year 10 8 Forecast Annual Growth Rates f 2012f Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing World Source: IMF, RBC Economics Research 5
6 World economy still faces many risks Share of World GDP Output, 2010 (e) Share of World GDP Output, 2010 (e) Rest of World 35% Rest of World 35% Australia Australia 1% 1% Canada 2% Euro zone Euro zone U.K. 15% 15% 3% Canada 2% China 13% Japan 6% Japan 6% U.K. U.S. 3% 20% U.S. 20% Middle East/Africa 5% China 13% Middle East/Africa 5% -Higher Risk Moderate Risk Lower Risk 6
7 Policies have been wide-ranging and starting to work Short-term funding spreads Basis points Canada U.S Eurozone U.K Source: Bloomberg, RBC Economics Research 7
8 Debt issuance marginally improved, yields still high Government bond yield spreads Spread over 10-year German Bunds, basis points Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan Source: Financial Times, RBC Economics Research 8
9 Deficits are big providing little room to manoeuvre Global government deficits % of GDP 4 2 Forecast Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Source: IMF, RBC Economics Research 9
10 Tighter fiscal policy planned Estimates of Fiscal Drag* Percentage points of GDP United States Euro Area Japan United Kingdom Canada Emerging Economies *change in the cyclically adjusted general government budget balance Source: International Monetary Fund, RBC Economics Research Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, September 2011, RBC Capital Markets 10
11 Low interest rates will prevent another global downturn Real policy rates: international % change, year-over-year 6 Forecast Canada U.S. U.K. Euro Area Source: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research 11
12 Output gap: international % 6 Output gaps are large U.S. Euro Zone Canada U.K Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis, Congressional Budget Office, European Commission, Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 12
13 . and unemployment rates elevated Unemployment rate vs 10 year average: international % U.S. Canada Euro Zone United Kingdom Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada, Statistical Office of the European 13
14 High inflation rates won t last given slack, steady commodity prices Headline inflation rate: international Annual % change 5.0 Forecast Canada U.S. U.K. Euro Area Source: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research 14
15 Exceptionally accommodative monetary policy = low term rates 10-year bond yields: international % 8 6 Canada U.S. U.K. Euro Forecast Source: FRB, ECB, BoC, BoE, RBC Economics Research 15
16 China yielding to domestic and foreign pressures Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q Real GDP: China % change, year-over-year Forecast Source: CNBS, Haver Analytics, RBC Emerging Markets Research, RBC Economics Research 16
17 US economy starting 2012 on firmer footing U.S. real GDP Quarter-over-quarter annualized % change 10 8 Forecasted Values: Annual Growth Rates f 2012f 2013f -8 Real GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research 17
18 Pace of hiring by private companies is accelerating Government and total private payrolls: U.S. 3-month moving average of change in employment (SA, thousands of people) Private Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research 18
19 However given the substantial surplus labour, rate will fall slowly Unemployment rate: U.S. % Forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RBC Economics Research 19
20 U.S. households have not fully recovered their losses Household net worth: U.S. Level, Trillions of Dollars Source: Federal Reserve, RBC Economics Research 20
21 U.S. consumer just doesn t have the fire power this time U.S. Real PCE: Indexed to Pre-recession GDP Peaks 130 Forecast 125 Q Q Q Q Q4- Q2- Q4- Q2- Q4- Q2- Q4- Q2- Q4- Q2- Q4- Q2- Q Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, RBC Capital Markets, RBC Economics Research 21
22 Borrowing costs are low and profit growth strong Corporate bond yields: U.S. Effective yield 10 Corporate profits: U.S. Index, 2008 = Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bureau of Economics Analysis, RBC Economics Research Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bureau of Economics Analysis, RBC Economics Research 22
23 Businesses investing in capital goods Nonresidential investment: U.S. SAAR, Billions of chained 2005 $ Forecast Equipment and Software Structures Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research 23
24 Downdraft from housing nearing an end but don t expect miracles Residential investments: U.S. Contribution to Real GDP Change (%) 0.6 Forecasted values: Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis, RBC Economics Research 24
25 Heading into a period of fiscal drag Fiscal assumptions contribution to GDP: U.S. Annual PPT Budget Control Act Payroll Tax Cuts 2010 Tax Package ARRA Impact Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis, Macroeconomic Advisers, RBC Economics Research 25
26 Federal Reserve is committed to keeping interest rates low Interest rates: U.S. % 7 Forecast Year Bond Yield Fed Funds Rate Source: Federal Reserve, RBC Economics Research 26
27 Inflation will not present a problem for policy makers Headline inflation: Canada and U.S. % change, year-over-year 6 5 Forecast 4 3 Canada U.S Source: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Labor Statistics, RBC Economics Research 27
28 as increases reflected rise in volatile components WTI oil and food prices Index, 1967=100 US$/barrel Forecast CRB Foodstuffs Index (LHS) WTI Oil Price (RHS) Source: Wall Street Journal, RBC Economics Research 28
29 Canada to run deficit until Federal government budgetary balance Billions of dollars Fed budget projection: Excluding savings targeted by the Deficit Reduction Action Plan Source: Department of Finance, RBC Economics Research 29
30 However given the small relative size of debt, not of great concern Government net debt to GDP: G7 Net financial liabilities as a % of GDP G7 Average Canada Germany United Kingdom France United States Italy Japan Source: OECD, RBC Economics Research 30
31 Fiscal restraint will weigh on growth this year and next Impact of Economic Action Plan on Canadian GDP growth Annual PPTs Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 31
32 More concern about household finances Household debt-to-income ratio Credit market debt as a % of personal disposable income U.S Canada Source: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Economic Analysis, RBC Economics Research 32
33 Pace of debt accumulation has slowed Household debt growth: Canada % change, year-over-year Mortgage debt Long-term average ( ) Consumer credit Long-term average ( ) Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 33
34 Large stock of debt creates vulnerabilities if things go wrong Household debt service ratio: Canada Mortgage & nonmortgage interest payments as a % of PDI 11 Forecast Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 34
35 Canada s labour market shifting gears after robust gains Labour market: Canada SA, Millions 19 Forecast % Unemployment Rate (RHS) Employment (LHS) Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 35
36 6 5 4 Consumers cool pace of spending after 2010 s splurge Personal consumption expenditures: Canada Year-over-year year-over-year % change PCE Forecasted values: Annual percent change f f f Source: Statistics Bureau of Canada, Economics RBC Analysis, Economics RBC Research Economics Research 36
37 Real estate gains will be more moderate in 2012 Home resales: Canada Thousands of units Home resales Annual percent change f f Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, RBC Economics Research 37
38 Prices to stabilize after strong gains in 2010/2011 Home prices in Canada Annual % change, detached bungalow benchmark Forecasted values: Annual percent change Home prices f f Source: Royal LePage, RBC Economics Research 38
39 Housing affordability mild deterioration reflects high prices/low rates Housing affordability (Bungalows): Canada % of household income taken up by ownership costs Source: Statistics Canada, Royal Lepage, RBC Economics Research 39
40 Bank of Canada worried about effects of global turmoil Interest rates: Canada % 7 Forecast Year Bond Yield BoC Overnight Rate Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research 40
41 Strong business balance sheets support investment Canadian capital investment Indexed to real GDP trough (2009-Q2) = Forecast 140 Non-residential Residential Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 41
42 Business invest to boost capital stock Non-financial Nonresidential corporate investment: liquidity: Canada Canada Cash SAAR, & Billions deposits of as chained a % of GDP 2002 $ Machinery and Equipment Forecast Structures Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research Source: Statistics Canada, Economics Research 42
43 Canada dollar: strong fundamentals, subject to risk appetite Canadian dollar forecast US$/C$ 1.10 Forecast 1.00 Parity End of period rates US$/C$ f Source: Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research 43
44 Canada s economy: volatile in 2011, to maintain momentum in 2012 Canada's real GDP quarter-over-quarter % change, annualized rate 8 6 Forecasted values: Annual Growth Rates f 2012f 2013f -6 Real GDP Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research 44
45 Disclaimer The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Royal Bank of Canada. 45
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
More informationEconomic Outlook: fear over fundamentals
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals April 2016 Craig Wright (SVP & Chief Economist) (416) 974-7457 craig.wright@rbc.com Volatility index Market volatility index, (VIX) 90 80 70
More informationGlobal economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919
More informationCanada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers
Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging
More informationEconomic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant
More informationEconomic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
More informationEconomic & Financial Market Outlook
Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets
More informationU.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
More informationOpportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?
Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation
More informationCanadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationThe Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
More informationReading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President
More informationThe U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
More informationFrom Recession to Recovery
From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific
More informationFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)
The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs
More informationSeven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and
More informationComposition of Federal Spending
*For Institutional Use Only* Demographic and Economic Trends: Growth, Debt and Promises Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory services
More information2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
More informationBC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager
BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full
More informationSA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018
SA economic review Kevin Lings August 2018 South Africa real GDP growth year-on-year %y/y 8 7 6 5 Ave 4.3% 4 Ave 2.5% 3 2 Ave 0.9% 1 0-1 -2-3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2
More informationGlobal growth forecasts Key countries/regions,
Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area
More informationABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee
ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS
More informationTelling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards
More informationMarket Insights. June 30, 2018
June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%
More informationEast Bay Financial Planners Association Conference
East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference Is The New Normal Here to Stay? January 10, 2018 Rich Taylor Vice President Client Portfolio Manager Percent Change (%) Subpar Economic Growth Real GDP
More informationNational and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference
National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully
More informationMarket Insights. March 29, 2019
March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?
More informationDeficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM
Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
More informationPROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION
PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2018 THE SASKATCHEWAN DIFFERENCE Economic Stability Diversified economy balances cyclicality of resources Growing population Majority government with
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011
Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005
More informationGrasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy
Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor
More informationThe U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
More informationBig Changes, Unknown Impacts
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth
More informationFinancial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition
Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition May 7 and 8, 2013 İstanbul, Turkey Outline 1 The Financial System 2 Weak Growth 3 4 5 Unprecedented
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half
More informationThe US Economic Outlook
IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth
More informationOutline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
More informationNational and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
More informationEconomic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business January 3, 2019 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
More informationU.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
More informationU.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions
More informationU.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
More informationThe ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources
The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com 1-800-BANKERS Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
More informationForecast evaluation report Robert Chote Chairman
Forecast evaluation report 2017 Robert Chote Chairman Background to the FER The FER is an annual report looking at the performance of past EFO forecasts against the latest outturn data Rationale Accountability
More informationMore of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP
More informationOutlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by:
Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis May 8 th, 2008 Presented by: Patricia Croft, Vice President & Chief Economist Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Limited
More informationIt Was Never Going To Be Easy
It Was Never Going To Be Easy Stephen Toplis, Head of Research July 2010 Introduction Global power shift sustained Average outlook on the improve Fiscal constraints binding Domestic rebalance under way
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak
More informationTHE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?
THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered
More informationThe Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationAfter the British referendum
Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase
More informationsector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO
The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking
More informationAirlines, the economy and air transport demand
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;
More informationMUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors
MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.
More informationA Giant Producer, & An Emerging Giant Consumer/Investor. Hong Liang
A Giant Producer, & An Emerging Giant Consumer/Investor China s Role in Global Trade and Investment Hong Liang Chief Economist, Head of Research October, 2016 I China: A global manufacturing power house,
More informationDemographic change, long-run housing demand and the related challenges for the Irish banking sector
Demographic change, long-run housing demand and the related challenges for the Irish banking sector December 5 th, 2016 esri.ie David Duffy, Daniel Foley, Kieran McQuinn and Niall McInerney Outline: Addresses
More information2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
More informationVermont Economic Conference:
Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.
More informationThe United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight
The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors
More informationAgriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed
Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District
More information10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business
10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent
More informationThe Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments
The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments 18 th Monetary Policy Workshop at the Berlin School of Economcs and Law, 12 13 October 2017 Overview Position 1: The euro itself
More informationAs Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International
As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect
More informationMONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION
OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute
More informationDr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin
Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin POWERPOINT PARTNER The US Economy today, with a close look at jobs
More informationPresident and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics
The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.
More informationThe U.S. & Global Economic Outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Remarks to The American Sportfishing Association
The U.S. & Global Economic Outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Remarks to The American Sportfishing Association Hilton Head, S.C. Oct. 9, 2012 How We Got Here Great Moderation = More
More informationMuhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
Muhlenkamp & Company Webinar December 1, 2016 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
More informationCan China Pilot a Soft Landing? 2017 Article IV Consultation Analysis, Outlook, and Policy Advice
Can China Pilot a Soft Landing? 2017 Article IV Consultation Analysis, Outlook, and Policy Advice September 2017 1 KEY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS China has had strong growth momentum which Real GDP Real GDP Stabilizes
More informationAlternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group
Alternative Measures of Economic Activity Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group High School Fed Challenge Student Orientation: February 1 and 2, 217 Outline Alternative indicators: data
More informationThe World Did Not End in Q1
The World Did Not End in Q1 Sam Wilkin Senior Advisor, Business Research Blog: www.samwilkin.com 06.2015 1 2 3 4 5 Exports to Russia: 10% of Finnish exports; 4% of Finnish GDP 1. Global Economic Weather
More informationURBAN LAND INSTITUTE
URBAN LAND INSTITUTE 2012 ULI FALL MEETING (Denver, 18 October 2012) The Global Economic Outlook Dark clouds on the horizon Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford Oxford Economics and REAG
More information2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
More informationThe Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff)
The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Montgomery, AL January 11, 2018 2 The new supply-side economics? In their discussion of monetary policy, participants saw
More informationCanadian Housing In Flux
Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist Dominion Lending Centres The Title of the presentation Second line if needed Third line if needed Canadian Housing In Flux Today s date Location of presentation March
More informationColorado Economic Update
Colorado Economic Update Steamboat Economic Summit Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division October 21, 2016 Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Real GDP
More informationCharting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds
Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington,
More informationA comment on recent events, and...
A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,
More information2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?
2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018
More informationDr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder
Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard
More informationCement & Construction Outlook
Cement & Construction Outlook Minnesota Concrete Council November 17, 2011 Dave Zwicke, PCA Analytics Manager, Sr. Economist Bottom Line Economy in a slow growth period characterized by tepid job gains.
More informationTrade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies
Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic
More informationMontreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future
Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future Outline The global economy and
More informationwww.colorado.edu/leeds/brd CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative
More informationGlobal Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade
Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade November 15, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
More informationZions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around
More informationThe structure of the euro area recovery
The structure of the euro area recovery Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist JPMorgan Investor Seminar, IMF Annual Meetings Washington, October 2017 The euro area: a systemic player in global trade Trade openness
More informationGlobal Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade
Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade January 15, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table
More informationAirline industry outlook 2019
Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE
More informationThe Great Economic Reset
The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory
More informationDr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest:
More informationEconomic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth?
Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth? Kan Chen Capital stock, labor, and productivity do not show a significant increase following the recent fiscal stimulus According to our
More informationEmerging from the euro debt crisis Making the single currency work
Emerging from the euro debt crisis Making the single currency work Dr. Michael Heise, Allianz SE American Institute for Contemporary German Studies Johns Hopkins University Washington D.C., August 20,
More information