Lodging Market Update. Valley Hotel and Resort Association April 13, 2016 Presented by: Robert Hayward

Transcription

1 Lodging Market Update Valley Hotel and Resort Association April 13, 2016 Presented by: Robert Hayward

2 United States Lodging Market

3 63.7% 59.8% 58.9% 59.2% 61.3% 63.1% 63.3% 63.1% 60.3% 55.1% 57.5% 59.9% 61.3% 62.2% 64.4% 65.6% Total United States: Historical Occupancy 70% 65% 60% 55% 50%

4 0.2% US Top 25 Markets: 2015 Supply Change 4% 3% 2% 1% 1.1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Market Supply % Chg Total US Supply % Chg 4

5 4.4% US Top 25 Markets: 2015 Demand Change 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2.9% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 5

6 65.9% US Top 25 Markets: 2015 Occupancy 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 65.6% 60% 55% 50% Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 6

7 4.4% US Top 25 Markets: 2015 Occupancy % Change 8% 6% 4% 2% 1.7% 0% -2% -4% -6% Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 7

8 $84.66 $83.62 $82.54 $82.67 $86.19 $91.04 $97.82 $ $ $98.07 $98.06 $ $ $ $ $ Total United States: Historical ADR $130 Inflated $ $110 $90 $70 $ Note: 2000 ADR inflated to 2015 equals $

9 $ US Top 25 Markets: 2015 ADR $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $ $50 $0 Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 9

10 8.0% US Top 25 Markets: 2015 ADR % Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 4.4% 2% 0% -2% Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 10

11 $54.80 $50.49 $48.89 $49.11 $52.93 $57.39 $61.69 $65.61 $64.49 $53.71 $56.43 $61.06 $65.15 $68.58 $74.04 $78.67 Total United States: Historical RevPAR $90 $90 Inflated $79.44 $75 $75 $60 $60 $45 $45 $ $30 Note: 2000 RevPAR inflated to 2015 equals $

12 $79.77 US Top 25 Markets: 2015 RevPAR $250 $200 $150 $100 $78.67 $50 $0 Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 12

13 12.8% US Top 25 Markets: 2015 RevPAR % Change 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 6.3% Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 13

14 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% 3.6% 4.1% 3.9% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 5.4% 6.3% 6.8% 8.3% Total United States: Key Performance % Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

15 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 2.0% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 3.3% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.6% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% Total United States: 2015 Key Performance % Change 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy 15

16 -0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.0% 3.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 4.7% 4.5% 6.6% 8.3% Total United States: YTD 2016 Performance % Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR YTD 2/2014 YTD 2/2015 YTD 2/2016

17 -4.2% US Top 25 Markets: YTD 2016 RevPAR % Change 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2.5% -5% -10% -15% Market Demand % Chg Total US Demand % Chg 17

18 Total United States: 2016 Forecast Summary Supply 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% Demand 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% Occupancy 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% ADR 4.4% 5.9% 5.2% RevPAR 5.0% 6.3% 5.5% 18

19 Metro Phoenix Lodging Market

20 52,200 52,490 52,853 54,103 53,590 53,288 53,395 53,844 56,247 59,261 60,572 61,054 61,603 61,541 61,233 61,300 Metro Phoenix: Total Available Rooms 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,

21 32,447 30,776 30,585 32,197 34,192 35,713 36,461 35,171 32,598 31,075 33,813 35,575 35,717 36,740 38,638 40,338 Metro Phoenix: Occupied Rooms per Day 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,

22 Metro Phoenix: % Change in Supply & Demand 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Supply 5.0% 0.6% 0.7% 2.4% -1.0% -0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 4.4% 6.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.9% -0.1% -0.5% 0.2% Demand 5.9% -5.1% -0.6% 5.3% 6.2% 4.4% 1.8% -1.7% -7.3% -6.3% 10.3% 5.2% 0.6% 3.4% 4.9% 4.4% 22

23 62.1% 58.5% 57.7% 59.4% 63.7% 67.1% 68.2% 66.9% 59.4% 52.1% 55.8% 57.9% 57.7% 59.8% 63.1% 65.9% Metro Phoenix: Historical Occupancy 70% 66% 62% 58% 54% 50%

24 Metro Phoenix: Transient vs. Group % Change Group Phoenix Top 25 US Markets Phoenix Top 25 US Markets Occupancy 3.1% 3.4% 4.8% 0.1% ADR 2.0% 2.9% 7.3% 3.7% RevPAR 5.1% 6.4% 12.5% 3.9% Transient Occupancy 4.5% 1.7% -1.0% 1.1% ADR 7.3% 5.6% 7.6% 3.3% RevPAR 12.1% 7.5% 6.5% 4.4% Contract Occupancy 6.3% 3.5% 3.8% 0.1% ADR -17.7% 6.1% 0.9% 10.3% RevPAR -12.5% 9.8% 4.8% 10.4% 24

25 $98.49 $96.89 $92.22 $92.66 $95.74 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Metro Phoenix: Historical ADR The growth in ADR strengthened in Factoring inflation, 2000 ADR equals $ today. $140 $125 $110 $95 $80 $65 $

26 $61.10 $56.70 $53.26 $55.03 $60.97 $68.98 $77.22 $80.76 $74.15 $55.42 $56.47 $60.22 $61.19 $65.11 $70.74 $79.77 Metro Phoenix: Historical RevPAR While increasing, RevPAR remains below 2007 peak and 2000 level factoring inflation (inflated 2000 RevPAR equals $88.49 today). $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $

27 -0.1% -0.5% -0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 1.9% 1.6% 3.4% 3.5% 2.8% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 5.4% 4.8% 6.3% 8.0% 10.5% 12.8% Metro Phoenix: Key Performance % Change 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

28 Metro Phoenix vs. US: Key Performance Indicators Metropolitan Phoenix United States % Change % Change Occupancy 63.1% 65.9% 4.4% 64.4% 65.6% 1.7% ADR $ $ % $ $ % RevPAR $70.74 $ % $74.04 $ % Supply 0.2% 1.1% Demand 4.4%

29 Metro Phoenix: 2016 Monthly Performance Jan 2016 % Change Feb 2016 % Change YTD Feb 2016 PHX % Change US % Change Occupancy 70.0% -0.4% 82.9% +1.7% 76.1% +0.6% -0.6% ADR $ % $ % $ % +3.2% RevPAR $ % $ % $ % +2.6% Supply 0.3% +0.4% +0.3% +1.6% Demand -0.2% +2.2% +0.9% +1.0%

30 Lodging Market Overview Metropolitan Phoenix Submarkets

31 2.7% 2.6% 4.1% 4.3% 3.6% 5.4% 5.3% 4.6% 5.9% 5.1% Percent Change 7.8% 7.4% 7.2% 8.2% 8.3% 10.1% 10.3% 10.3% 11.8% 13.6% 15.9% Metro Phoenix Lodging Submarkets: 2014 % Chg. Key Performance Indicators 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mesa/ Chandler Tempe Scottsdale Phoenix Airport Phoenix Central Occupancy ADR RevPAR Phoenix West Black Canyon Corridor

32 1.3% 3.0% 6.1% 5.1% 6.4% 5.7% 5.9% Percent Change 9.3% 8.6% 9.2% 10.6% 10.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.8% 11.5% 14.1% 17.0% 16.0% 18.1% 21.5% Metro Phoenix Lodging Submarkets: 2015 % Chg. Key Performance Indicators 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mesa/ Chandler Tempe Scottsdale Phoenix Airport Phoenix Central Phoenix West Black Canyon Corridor Occupancy ADR RevPAR

33 -7.5% -6.4% -5.2% -5.1% -5.5% -6.1% -3.5% -3.1% -4.0% -3.5% -3.9% -3.3% -3.3% -4.1% Percent Change -1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 3.2% Metro Phoenix Lodging Submarkets: YTD 2016 Key Performance Indicators 10% 0% -10% Mesa/ Chandler Tempe Scottsdale Phoenix Airport Phoenix Central Phoenix West Black Canyon Corridor Occupancy ADR RevPAR

34 Mesa/Chandler Submarket

35 Mesa/Chandler Submarket: Key Performance Indicators % Change YTD Feb YTD Feb % Change Occupancy 59.9% 61.7% +3.0% 74.0% 74.4% +.5% ADR $89.41 $ % $ $ % RevPAR $53.54 $ % $86.64 $ % Supply 3.1% 4.0% Demand +6.2% +4.5%

36 Tempe Submarket

37 Tempe Submarket: Key Performance Indicators % Change YTD Feb YTD Feb % Change Occupancy 65.2% 68.5% +5.1% 77.6% 78.0% +.6% ADR $91.92 $ % $ $ % RevPAR $59.95 $ % $96.64 $ % Supply +2.4% -3.9% Demand +7.6% -3.4%

38 Scottsdale Submarket

39 Scottsdale Submarket: Key Performance Indicators % Change YTD Feb YTD Feb % Change Occupancy 66.0% 66.9% +1.3% 76.4% 77.4% +1.4% ADR $ $ % $ $ % RevPAR $ $ % $ $ % Supply -2.9% -.7% Demand -1.7% +.7%

40 Phoenix Airport Submarket

41 Phoenix Airport Submarket: Key Performance Indicators % Change YTD Feb YTD Feb % Change Occupancy 64.0% 70.4% +10.0% 77.0% 79.4% +3.2% ADR $92.37 $ % $ $ % RevPAR $59.16 $ % $ $ % Supply 0.0% 0.0% Demand +10.0% +3.2%

42 Phoenix Central Submarket

43 Phoenix Central Submarket: Key Performance Indicators % Change YTD Feb YTD Feb % Change Occupancy 63.8% 67.9% +6.4% 77.8% 75.2% -3.3% ADR $ $ % $ $ % RevPAR $87.01 $ % $ $ % Supply -1.6% 1.3% Demand +4.7% -2.0h%

44 Phoenix West Submarket

45 Phoenix West Submarket: Key Performance Indicators % Change YTD Feb YTD Feb % Change Occupancy 63.3% 66.9% +5.7% 75.2% 76.3% +1.5% ADR $83.65 $ % $ $ % RevPAR $52.93 $ % $85.17 $ % Supply 0.0% +0.2% Demand +5.7% +1.7%

46 Black Canyon Corridor Submarket

47 Black Canyon Corridor Submarket: Key Performance Indicators % Change YTD Feb YTD Feb % Change Occupancy 59.2% 62.6% +5.9% 72.3% 73.4% +1.6% ADR $62.90 $ % $90.89 $ % RevPAR $37.22 $ % $65.70 $ % Supply +.6% 0.0% Demand +6.5% +1.6%

48 Metro Phoenix Resort Market

49 10,693 10,844 11,240 13,088 12,888 12,211 12,317 12,317 12,355 12,610 13,084 13,184 13,176 13,172 12,704 12,649 Phoenix Resort Market: Available Rooms 13,750 13,000 12,250 11,500 10,750 10,

50 66.7% 61.2% 60.4% 62.1% 67.2% 70.6% 69.9% 68.2% 64.2% 58.1% 61.3% 63.5% 63.9% 65.2% 66.7% 66.6% Phoenix Resort Market: Historical Occupancy 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50%

51 Phoenix Resort Market: Occupancy by Segment 80% 75% 74.7% 70% 70.3% 70.5% 70.1% 65% 64.7% 61.7% 67.5% 63.0% 63.7% 63.8% 60% 55% 54.2% 50% Luxury Non-Luxury 51

52 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Phoenix Resort Market: Average Daily Rate $225 $200 $175 $150 $ Note: 2000 ADR inflated to 2015 equals $

53 Phoenix Resort Market: ADR by Segment $300 $250 $ $ (6.7%) $ (4.7%) $200 $ (-20.0%) $150 $100 $ $ (-17.6%) $ (11.1%) $ (+7.6%) Luxury Notes: The number in parentheses represents percent change from prior year 2000 luxury/non-luxury ADR inflated to 2015 equals $ and $203.79, respectively Non-Luxury 53

54 $ $ $ $98.43 $ $ $ $ $ $97.30 $98.18 $ $ $ $ $ Phoenix Resort Market: Revenue per Avail. Room $145 $130 $115 $100 $85 $ Note: 2000 ADR inflated to 2015 equals $

55 Phoenix Resort Market: RevPAR by Segment $200 $150 $ $ (6.2%) $ (6.1%) $ (-25.4%) $100 $91.07 $98.26 (11.3%) $88.31 (10.0%) $50 $70.63 (-27.5%) Luxury Non-Luxury 55

56 Regional Lodging Market Issues 56

57 National and Global Influences Lodging industry following the economy-upward overall performance Overall demand demonstrating steady growth trend-steady ADR growth continues, driven by the transient sector Recovery now more uniform (not dominated by gateway markets) Group performance improving but future remains uncertain Change in consumer habits Financial markets more favorable to acquisitions and new development New supply on the rise-led by select/focus service product Ancillary spend gaining further momentum Merger/acquisition activity within the lodging industry Ongoing national and global issues Upcoming Presidential/Congressional elections Ongoing Middle East activity (war, threat of terrorism) Impact on oil prices; air and ground travel patterns China/Pacific Rim, European economic trends (global impact/international travel) Strength of the U.S. dollar U.S. employment patterns

58 Metro Phoenix Supply Outlook While currently limited, Growth in new supply could increase in foreseeable future Supportable market dynamics, travel patterns, financing, area economic conditions, etc. Absorption of last round of new supply no longer an issue Rate growth has strengthened Securing development capital continues to be difficult for larger upscale and full-service projects Minimal new full-service projects are anticipated over the next three years Lack of quality development sites Brand availability Continued focus on capital expenditures, renovation, repositioning Brand-required renovation Competitive positioning Repositioning vs. new build

59 Metro Phoenix Demand Outlook Positive Influences Local, regional, national economic recovery Compression from other markets Strength and appeal of destination and product offering Tourism funding Threats Future immigration/other legislation Convention and visitor bureau budgets remain vulnerable to future economic downturns Enhanced competitive pressure (regional, national) Continuing border issues Future group and government travel Airbnb, VRBO impact to the market

60 Average Rate Challenge ADR remains the main challenge for market Driven by higher occupancy, ADR growth is strengthening While higher, recent growth has not been at levels necessary to allow a complete market recovery Need sustained occupancy compression to achieve notable ADR growth Effective revenue management and market unification critical to success Unlike the majority of the top 25 US markets, Phoenix has yet to achieve full recovery One of three markets that have not recovered to peak ADR and RevPAR levels (as of year-end 2015)

61 US Top 25 Markets: ADR Recovery Market ADR Peak ADR Trough % Change from Peak 2015 ADR % Change from Trough % Change from Peak Anaheim $ $ % $ % 17.4% Atlanta $91.03 $ % $ % 7.4% Boston $ $ % $ % 22.6% Chicago $ $ % $ % 8.3% Dallas $93.87 $ % $ % 5.4% Denver $ $ % $ % 14.5% Detroit $86.81 $ % $ % 8.4% Houston $ $ % $ % 8.4% Los Angeles $ $ % $ % 23.8% Miami $ $ % $ % 22.6% Minneapolis-St Paul $ $ % $ % 9.6% Nashville $95.53 $ % $ % 32.6% New Orleans $ $ % $ % 25.4% New York $ $ % $ % -6.1% Norfolk-Virginia Beach $88.63 $ % $ % 6.6% Oahu $ $ % $ % 29.2% Orlando $ $ % $ % 5.6% Philadelphia $ $ % $ % 4.4% Phoenix $ $ % $ % -3.0% San Diego $ $ % $ % 6.2% San Francisco $ $ % $ % 42.6% Seattle $ $ % $ % 17.2% St Louis $87.19 $ % $ % 13.6% Tampa-St Petersburg $ $ % $ % 7.5% Washington DC $ $ % $ % -2.4% 61

62 US Top 25 Markets: RevPAR Recovery Market RevPAR Peak RevPAR Trough % Change from Peak 2015 RevPAR % Change from Trough % Change from Peak Anaheim $87.96 $ % $ % 28.8% Atlanta $56.87 $ % $ % 20.3% Boston $ $ % $ % 38.6% Chicago $87.54 $ % $ % 14.1% Dallas $55.27 $ % $ % 26.3% Denver $66.59 $ % $ % 37.3% Detroit $49.74 $ % $ % 24.5% Houston $67.53 $ % $ % 10.2% Los Angeles $92.33 $ % $ % 36.7% Miami $ $ % $ % 33.2% Minneapolis-St Paul $64.56 $ % $ % 18.8% Nashville $59.80 $ % $ % 55.7% New Orleans $74.01 $ % $ % 39.6% New York $ $ % $ % -2.9% Norfolk-Virginia Beach $53.11 $ % $ % 1.4% Oahu $ $ % $ % 44.8% Orlando $71.86 $ % $ % 19.9% Philadelphia $82.16 $ % $ % 6.2% Phoenix $80.76 $ % $ % -1.2% San Diego $ $ % $ % 13.4% San Francisco $ $ % $ % 60.3% Seattle $87.36 $ % $ % 29.5% St Louis $51.74 $ % $ % 25.1% Tampa-St Petersburg $63.73 $ % $ % 29.1% Washington DC $ $ % $ % 2.8% 62