Climate Change and the Evolution of Canada s Wine Appellations
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1 Climate Change and the Evolution of Canada s Wine Appellations Anthony B. Shaw Department of Geography & Cool climate Enology and Viticulture Institute Brock University, Ontario Canada 1
2
3 Georgian Bay Lake Huron Grey Huron Durham P EC Lake Ontario Norfolk Niagara Lake Erie North Shore Lake Erie 3
4 Trends in Spring Trends towards and early warm up 4
5 May April March 5
6 Evolution of Nova Scotia's Wine Climate (Greenwood) ) 1300 GDDs De Chaunac L Acadie, Lucie Kuhlmann Seyval Blanc Baco Noir, Marechal Foch Vidal, Riesling,Chardonnay, Pinot Noir REGION
7 Evolution of Winkler Index for Granby, Estrie Region Quebec Lucy Kuhlman Ste. Croix, Chancellor, De Chaunac Vidal, Seyval, Marechal Foch Region I GDDs
8 Trends in GGDs For Niagara Region GDDs Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon Cabernet Franc Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay Chasselas Pinot Noir Chardonnay Gamay Riesling Pinot Gris Region II Region I
9 Syrah Petit Verdot Grenache Region III Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon Cabernet Franc Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay Region II Chasselas Pinot Noir Riesling Chardonnay Region I 9
10 1600 Prince Edward County Mean=1258 GDDS 100 GDDs Region II GDDs Chasselas Pinot Noir Cabernet Franc Riesling Chardonnay Gamay Pinot Gris Sauvignon Blanc Gewürztraminer Region Tony B. Shaw
11 Chasselas Pinot Noir Chardonnay Gamay Cabernet Franc Riesling Gewürztraminer Region I 11
12 Long-term trends in Growing Degree Days For Vines ( , Norfolk County) GDDs Region 11 Region
13 Trends in GDDs Value For Huron County GDDS Region I
14 Evolution of South Okanagan's Wine Climate, British Columbia Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc, Sangiovese, Malbec, Chardonnay, Riesling Region III 0 0 Region II 0 Region
15 Evolution of the Winkler Index 15
16 Mean Growing Season Temperature 16
17 Observed and Projected Changes in GDDs to 2070s using the downscaled HADCM3 17
18 A2- Scenario- A heterogeneous world, increasing population, slower and fragmented technological change A1B- Rapid population that peaks in mid-century and declines followed by rapid introduction of energyefficient technologies and a balance between fossil and non-fossil fuels B1- A convergent world, population peaks in midcentury, and declines, global solutions and emphasis on social and environmental sustainability 18
19 2400 Past and Future Growing Degree Days Niagara, Ontario, Canada GDD Baseline 10 C Year Observed A2 A1B B1 19
20 Pa st and Future Climate Normals Growing Degree Days Niagara, Ontario, Canada GDD Baseline 10 C Observed Observed Observed and Modelled Observed and Modelled Modelled Modelled Modelled Modelled A2 A1B B1 20
21 Observed and Projected Extreme Minimum Temperatures 21
22 What are Extreme Climate Events in Viticulture. An extreme climate event is the exceedance of a threshold value by a climate variable on a particular occasion or one or more occasions within a time period for a particular crop Extreme events are relatively more sensitive to the variability of climate than to its average and this sensitivity is relatively greater the more extreme the event Extreme events can also be defined by the impact an event has on vineyard production that may involve excessive loss in yield and deterioration in quality or the destruction of the vines. 22
23 Trends in Potentially Damaging Temperatures <-20 o C 23
24 Potentially Damaging Temperatures <-20o C (Norfolk) Frequency
25 # of days where Tmin<-20 degrees Celsius per year Past and Future Extreme Cold Days Vineland, Ontario, Canada Year Observed A2 A1B B1 25
26 26
27 0 Trends in the Lowest Temperatures for January at Vineland
28 Occurrences of Extreme Maximum Temp>30o C 28
29 Definition: Volatility is the pace at which a climatic variable or index (temperature or precipitation) moves higher or lower over a time period, and how widely it varies or how extreme is the fluctuation 29
30 25 Daily temperature Variations December 1/16 to March 3/ Degree C Days 30
31 400 Deviations from Mean (1490 GDD Value for Niagara Deviation from Mean
32 400 Precipitation Variability during Growing Season for Niagara, Mean=528mm
33 Ice Wine and Climate Change 33
34 Vineyard Scale
35 Hand Picking icewine grapes
36 Trends in Ice Wine Picking Days For December Days , 1 36
37 30 Trends in Picking Days For January
38 25 Trends in Consecutive Picking Days
39 Trends in Ice Wine Picking Days in Dec & Jan ( , Niagara Ontario) Days
40 Great Lakes and Climate Change 40
41 Georgian Bay Lake Huron Grey Huron Durham P EC Lake Ontario Norfolk Niagara Lake Erie North Shore 41
42 March 2016 Ice Cover 42
43 43
44 1 Trends in Maximum Ice Cover for Lake Ontario % / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14
45 1 Lake Ontario s Ice Cover vs GDDs Values For Niagara GDDs % Ice Cover / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
46 April October Precipitation For Vineland 46
47 Trends in Growing April-October Rainfall Totals 47
48 800 Past and Projected Climate Normals Growing Season (AMJJASO) Total Precipitation Vineland, Ontario, Canada mm Observed Modelled Modelled Observed A2 A1B B1 Modelled Modelled
49 Extreme Precipitation Events mm yearly precipitation from Frequency y = 0.002x
50 Temperature During the Ripening Period 50
51
52 Trends in Diurnal Temperature Range During Ripening Period 52
53 28 Niagara Max and Min T For September Degree C Temperate Cool Very Cool DTR
54 15 Vineland's Lowest Fall Minimum Temperatures 10 5 September 0 October -5 November
55 Precipitation During Ripening to Harvest 55
56 August Rainfall Totals for Vineland September Rainfall Totals for Vineland
57 October Rainfall Totals for Vineland,
58 Precipitation Totals for September and October 58
59 Impacts and Implications
60 Winter Freeze Damage Positive :Reduction in number of damaging winter extreme minimum freeze events <-20 degrees Negative Prolonged temperatures above 0o C can reduce cold hardiness Winter damage could actually increase due to occurrences of warm freeze-thaw events followed by cold snaps Therefore, freeze damage could occur at a higher minimum temperatures for varieties with low chilling requirements
61 Implications for Viticulture in the Long-Term Impact on Vine Phenology Spring Positive: Earlier bud break and flowering Negative: Potential damage from late spring frosts for varieties with early bud break
62 Positive April to October Growing season Warmer and longer growing seasons could enhance ripening potentials for red and late season varieties Negative More volatility in growing season conditions leading to a greater degree of variability in vintages Positive Potential for Full maturity of mid to late season varieties (Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon) Expansion into new areas around the Great Lakes currently considered climatically marginal Negative Accelerated ripening for early season varieties Lower acidity and higher sugar and alcohol levels due higher daytime and night time temperatures
63 Climate Change Adaptation Strategies. Most studies on adaptive strategies consider implementation based on experiences with recurrent environmental and viticultural challenges Examples of adaptation based on long-term future projections of climate change are uncommon Anticipatory adaptive strategies present many challenges due to uncertainties in future climate change projections Combine reactive and anticipatory adaptive strategies
64 Farming systems respond not only to environmental conditions, but also to economic, technological, institutional, political and social conditions. Any changes in these areas can be disruptive and costly. 64
65 Reactive Strategies 65
66 Diversify the Number of Cultivars and Growing Areas Expand the range of commercial varieties, but must consider consumers preferences Target new Areas with suitable soil types and climates (In progress in emerging areas)
67 Implement Active and Passive Freeze Protection Methods Currently widely practised by growers
68 Hedging Winter Injury and Vintage Variations Consider Insurance Policies and Institutional Support to hedge against losses from freeze injury and variations in vintage quality and yield Government support for technological innovations is a key driver in development of the adaptation and mitigation strategies related to climate change
69 Blending Blending the same varieties or different varieties from several areas or vineyards to reduce vintage variations and to create unique sensory attributes
70 Monitoring Systems Develop Micro-climate Monitoring Systems to assess evolution of established areas and to identify new areas Should include real time and archived data of key climatic parameters and indices for long-term analysis Monitoring various stages of plant phenology, fruit maturation and harvest (Vine Alert System and Vine and Fruit Tree Innovation Monitoring Systems)
71 Climate Change Long-Term Adaptation Strategies Through Institutional Support Develop cold-resistant varieties to accommodate cycles of freeze and thaw and higher chilling requirements Develop disease-resistant varieties Develop Climate Prediction Models for analysis at smaller spatial scales
72 Conclusions Climate Change Potential impacts are mixed containing challenges and opportunities Adaptive strategies in response to recurrent climatic events and economic factors are widely practiced What strategies we should implement in anticipation of future changes will depend on accuracy of our forecasts and support from various governmental and academic institutions
73 Thank You 73
74 Thank You
75 Implications for Viticulture in the Long-Term Impact on Vine Phenology Spring Positive: Earlier bud break and flowering Negative: Potential damage from late spring frosts Earlier veráison and ripening Impact on Quality
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