Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group. November 6, 2017

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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group November 6, 2017

2 National Economic Conditions

3 Dow Breaks 23,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

4 Business Optimism Booms Post Election Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

5 Consumer Confidence Continues Higher 130 October Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Source: The Conference Board

6 Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Tax Reform Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals But can they get it done?

7 October Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 325, ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.1% Private Payrolls 320, ,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.2% -0.04% 2.7% 2.4% Labor Force Participation 63.0% 62.7% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 85 Straight Months of Job Creation Employment Change in thousands Million Jobs Lost 16.6 Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 Thousands of Jobs U.S. Labor Market Streak Continues 85 Months of Job Growth +261, Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Oct-2012 Oct-2013 Oct-2014 Oct-2015 Oct-2016 Oct-2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10 Wide Swings in Food and Drinking Employment

11 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: October 2016 to October 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.8% Construction 2.8% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 2.6% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.0% Financial Activity 1.8% Leisure & Hospitality 1.8% Manufacturing 1.3% Other Services 1.3% Trade, Trans., Utilities 0.4% Government Information -2.3% 0.2% Total: 1.4% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: October 2016 to October 2017 Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Construction Financial Activity Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Ntl. Res. & Mining Other Services Government Information Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 Unemployment Lowest in 17 Years 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% = Full Employment 3.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 Unemployment and Underemployment 18% 16% 14% 12% 7.1% 10% 8% 6% 3.8% 4% 2% U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 Wage Growth Rose in October Disappoints 4.0% 3.5% Oct % 3.0% 2.5% Average 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16 68% Labor Force Participation Remains in a Tight Range 67% 66% 65% 64% Oct: 62.7% 63% 62% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% Apr % Mar % Oct % 56% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Male vs Female Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 40% 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Participation Among Women Aged Has Surged

20 Prime Working Age Participation Increasing

21 Baby Boomers Head for Retirement 68% 38% U.S. Participation Rate 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% Share of % 20% U.S. Participation Rate Age 55+ Share of Working Age Pop Source: Zions Bank Analysis of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22 Long-Term Decline of the Teenage Workforce 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate Ages Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

24 Standards of Living Best Ever

25 Fewer Unemployed Workers Per Job Opening July Unemployed/Openings Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26 Labor productivity has declined since strong growth during late 1990 s and early 2000 s Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Real output per hour Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

27 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par 5% Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change 4% 3% Oct 1.6% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

28 Real GDP Growth 6.0% 4.0% Q % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

29 Federal Funds Target Has Risen Four Times in the Last Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

30 September 2017 Fed Projections Point to Higher Rates Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

31 Markets Expect Rate Increase in 2017

32 Fed Announces Plan to Reduce Balance Sheet $5.00T $4.50T $4.00T $3.50T $3.00T $2.50T $2.00T $1.50T $1.00T $0.50T Recession QE1 QE2 QE3 $0.00T Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

33 Bond Spreads Tightening

34 Regional Economic Conditions Source: U.S Census Bureau

35 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% OH 0.1% KY 0.3% WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

36 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051,217 25,412 34,997 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast

37 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% Millard 0.4% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Wayne 0.0% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

38 CA 1.7% Utah Has the Highest Employment Growth in the Nation OR 2.3% WA 2.2% NV 2.5% Percent Change in Employment for States: Sept to Sept U.S. Rate = 1.2% AK 0.2% ID 2.1% UT 2.5% AZ 1.3% MT 1.6% WY -1.1% HI 1.2% CO 1.6% NM 1.0% ND 1.4% SD 0.7% NE 1.5% KS -0.4% TX 2.1% OK 1.1% MN 1.8% IA 0.9% MO 1.3% AR 2.0% WI 1.2 LA 0.7% IL 0.1% MS 0.6% MI 1.4% IN 1.0% TN 1.5% AL 1.5% OH 1.1% KY 1.6% GA 1.9% VT 1.0% WV 0.4% PA 1.1% NC 1.4% SC 1.4% VA 1.1% FL 0.7% NH 1.3% NY 1.0% ME 0.6% DC 0.9% CT 0.2% DE 0.6% MD 2.4% MA 1.7% RI 0.9% NJ 0.7% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

39 Most Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: September 2016 to September 2017 Construction Prof. & Bus. Serv. Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Trade, Trans., Utilities Ed. & Health Serv. Manufacturing Government Financial Activity Information Ntl. Res. & Mining -4.6% -6.0% 5.0% 4.3% 4.0% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% Total: 2.4% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

40 Utah Employment Change Rates By County September 2016 to September 2017 State Rate = 2.4% Box Elder 1.4% Tooele 0.1% Juab -2.1% Cache 2.8% Rich 1.8% Weber 1.6% Da1is 4.5% Salt Lake 2.4% Morgan 4.0% Utah 4.8% Summit 2.4% Wasatch 5.2% Duchesne 5.8% Carbon 2.3% Daggett 2.3% Uintah 2.3% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% Millard 1.9% Beaver 2.9% Piute 5.2% Sanpete 0.7% Sevier 2.6% Emery 2.1% Wayne 1.7% Grand 3.1% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 2.2% Garfield 5.3% San Juan 1.8% Washington 4.9% Kane 2.6% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted

41 Utah Unemployment 10 th lowest in the Nation OR 4.2% CA 5.1% WA 4.6% NV 4.9% ID 2.8% UT 3.4% AZ 4.7% MT 3.9% WY 4.0% CO 2.5% NM 6.2% September 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.2% ND 2.4% SD 3.4% NE 2.8% KS 3.8% OK 4.5% MN 3.9% IA 3.2% MO 3.8% AR 3.5% WI 3.5% IL 5.0% MS 5.2% MI 4.3% IN 3.8% TN 3.0% AL 3.8% OH 5.3% KY 5.2% GA 4.5% WV 5.1% VT 2.9% PA 4.8% NC 4.1% SC 3.9% VA 3.7% NH 2.7% NY 4.9% ME 3.7% DC 6.5% CT 4.6% DE 4.9% MD 3.3% MA 3.9% RI 4.2% NJ 4.7% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% AK 7.2% TX 4.0% LA 5.1% FL 3.8% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less HI 2.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

42 Utah Unemployment Rates By County August 2017 State Rate = 3.5% Box Elder 3.3% Tooele 3.7% Juab 3.5% Cache 2.8% Weber 3.7% Morgan Davis 3.2% 3.1% Salt Lake 3.2% Utah 3.0% Rich 3.1% Summit 3.1% Wasatch 3.3% Duchesne 5.6% Carbon 5.2% Daggett 5.7% Uintah 6.0% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% Millard 3.3% Beaver 3.9% Piute 5.6% Sanpete 4.1% Sevier 4.1% Emery 5.2% Grand 5.3% Wayne 7.4% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Iron 4.2% Garfield 7.3% San Juan 7.2% Washington 3.5% Kane 3.6% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

43 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis UT, ID, and WA Personal Income Growth Tied for the Highest in the Nation CA 4.8% WA 4.9% OR 3.8% NV 4.8% AK 1.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2016 Q Q1 U.S. = 3.7%; ID = 4.9% ID 4.9% UT 4.9% AZ 3.8% MT 3.7% WY -0.5% HI 3.0% CO 4.4% NM 2.2% ND 1.0% SD 2.5% NE 1.2% KS 2.5% TX 3.2% OK 1.2% MN 3.6% IA 1.9% MO 3.5% AR 3.1% WI 3.1% LA 3.0% IL 2.2% MS 2.4% MI 4.4% IN 4.0% TN 4.4% AL 3.2% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease OH 3.6% % WV 1.9% GA 3.8% VT 1.6% PA 3.9 % NC 4.4% SC 4.6% VA 4.4% FL 4.6% NH 3.1% NY 3.0% ME 2.9% DC 4.4% CT 2.5% DE 3.6% MD 4.9% MA 3.8% RI 3.0% NJ 3.5%

44 Inflation Surging in Utah 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% United States CPI: +2.2% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.5% Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

45 Consumer Sentiment on the Rise Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group

46 Real Estate and Construction

47 $255,000 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 $115,000 $95, Utah home values continue to rise Utah July 2017 $252,600 U.S. July 2017 $200, United States Utah Source: Zillow Research

48 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com

49 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Forecast e 2018f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight

50 Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $8,000 Millions of Dollars $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 Forecast $1,000 $ e 2018f Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

51 Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Trumponomics pro growth agenda The Western US has: Strong population growth Strong employment growth Low unemployment Strong income growth Utah inflation is strong Economic Overview Negatives National and international uncertainty Trumponomics success? Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Overregulation from Washington

52 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Phone:

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