Oil Trading : From Supply / Demand Balancing To Price Risk Management
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1 Oil Trading : From Supply / Demand Balancing To Price Risk Management Frederic Baule TOTALFINAELF Trading Division 1
2 Once upon a time 2
3 Nymex decided to trade «futures» contracts for electricity in Palo Verde 65 US$/MWh Apr 96 SPOT And FORWARD
4 Forward prices were no cristal ball but Power Merchants were keen to learn. 65 US$/MWh Apr
5 Each learning curve has its price But they learned fast. 65 US$/MWh sometimes, a very high price! Apr 96 Apr 97 Apr
6 Power Price Risk Management was their future 65 US$/MWh Apr 96 Apr 97 Apr
7 as they did find The Martingale!
8 Or so they thought for a while! USD/MWH
9 And California went dark. 9
10 But the show had to go on
11 And on
12 And on
13 And went Off Line
14 What went wrong when? 14
15 What about Crude Oil Trading? Sea Transportation Production Storage Refining Storage Marketing 15
16 A Different Story? Nominal $/bl '98 $/bl Latest Low '98$ (17/11/98) Sources: BP, Platts
17 Challenged by «Macro» Parameters Irak invades Kuwait BRENT PRICES Kuwait increases Production 9/11 30 CIS Failed Putch Expectation Irak/UN USD/BBL Low Demand Excess Offer OPEC New Quotas
18 and rising Volatilities Volatility 70 In % Time Dec-94 Jun-95 Maturities Dec-95 Jun-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Brent - Historical 30 days annualised volatility 18
19 Crude Oil Trading relies on a robust Pricing Mecanism facilitating International Trades + Freight Differential + FinancingDifferential + QualityDifferential Crude Oil Price + Physical to Paper Differential «Paper» Crude Price 19
20 built gradualy 1975/1985 Long Term Contracts Fixed prices/volumes 2000 / 2002 within a Price Band? 1985/1986 Netback Formulas Product Prices Indexation 1980 s A Fixed Price Per Spot Cargo 1987 Indexation to a Crude Oil Reference 20
21 Without Supply Disruption 21
22 as Trading fills in short term imbalances To Asia From Asia China 233 China To Japan From Latin America 100 Crude Oil inter-regional regional movements in 2000 = 33.2 Mbd 22
23 The Result : an Integrated Market Combining Physical Trading. Forward Markets Brent 15 day... Physical Market «Dated» Brent Oil Markets Organised Markets IPE Brent Over the Counter Products Brent swap with Price Trading 23
24 Price Traders Floor Brokers e-trading OTC Brokers Supply / Demand NEWS! 24
25 Focused on Crude Oil Markers London New York Rotterdam Tokyo US Gulf Coast MED AG Singapore WTI Brent25 Dubai Oman Tapis
26 leading contributors to Oil Price Formation 700 Futures Contracts Accrued Volumes NYMEX Volumes IPE Volumes 100 World Oil Demand Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 26
27 translating Information into Prices,, in size. WTI Share 30% Non-Commercials Positions On Nymex WTI Contract $/Bbls 40 25% 20% % 24 10% 5% % Jan-86 Jul-87 Jan-89 Jul-90 Jan-92 Feb-93 Oct-93 Jun-94 Mar-95Nov-95Jul-96 Apr-97 Dec-97 Aug-98 Apr-99Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01Jan-02 8 Short Position % Long Position % 27
28 Oil is Liquid! 63 Inventories $33 Prices 61 $30 $27 59 $24 57 $21 $ $15 $12? J F M A M J Jy A S O N D $ Stocks in days of forward consumption 28
29 Oil Professionals care about Oil Fundamentals Stocks Kbbl 310, , , ,000 T-spread $/bbl , , , , , ,000 Jan-89 Mar-90 Apr-91 Jun-92 Aug-93 Oct-94 Dec-95 Jan-97 Mar-98 May-99 Jul-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks Time Spread (WTI 1 - WTI 2) 29
30 meaningful Time Structures
31 Products Trading? Production Storage Refining Storage Marketing 31
32 Price Forecasting Gas Oil - IPE USD/MT
33 not a Trader s job $MT Daily changes of IPE Gasoil Prices
34 fighting to survive day to day Price Actions... $MT
35 in much narrower Markets. 8 7 North America 8 27 Latin America Europe Africa Middle East Ex-USSR & E. Europe Asia-Pacific Only trade flows >4 Mt en 2000 World Oil Products Inter-regional regional Trade Flows Mt in 2000
36 Time Structure Gas Oil - IPE Weather Arbitrage USD/MT Offer Demand
37 Time Structure : Propane North West Europe USD/MT
38 Time Structure : Unleaded Gasoline North West Europe USD/MT
39 Time Structure : Automotive Gasoil North West Europe USD/MT
40 Time Structure : Low Sulfur Fuel Oil North West Europe USD/MT
41 Energy Merchants Weather Renewables A BUSINESS MODEL Emissions Multi Currency OIL IMPORTED COAL & COKE NATURAL GAS HYDRO + NUCLEAR + LOCAL COAL 41
42 European Energy Market Gas (and Power) Markets Oil Professionals Physical Gas Gas Derivatives Physical Oil Oil Derivatives Oil Trading Trading Firm Gas Price Formulae Gas Trading Energy Merchants 42
43 European Energy Market Improved Forward Liquidity USD/BBL Gas formulae
44 Facilitates forward refinery margins hedging Usd / Bbl Spot Refinery Margin based on Med indices 12 months Forward Refinery Margin 44
45 The Refiner : at the Center of the Supply Chain Crude Oil Products Production Storage Storage Marketing Trading Trading 45
46 facing a real managerial challenge. Petchem Market NatGas Market LPG Market Power Market Naphtha Market Crude Oil Market Gasoline Market Feedstocks Market Kerosene Market Fuel Market Heating Oil Market Diesel Market 46
47 Products Exchanges Drivers of Growth Lower barriers to trade Standardized products Increased competition Now! Risk management techniques Gold Butter, eggs, poultry Silver CBOT, NYMEX, CME, LME, Turkey futures Copper Futures for eggs, butter, cheese, potatoes, onions 47 Pork bellies Platinum Live hog futures Nickel Live cattle futures Mortgage futures Live hog futures options Palladium Aluminium Platinum options & futures Certificate of deposit futures Pork belly futures options Oil forwards and futures Feeder Heating oil cattle futures Paris Ammonia futures Broadband Natural gas options futures Gas futures Pulp futuresweather Live cattle futures optionsbarge freight index Edible oils index Catastroph y futures Propane Emissions futures Boneless beef futures & options Paper pulp swaps Steel scrap futures Biffex, Nordpool Lean hog futures & options Late 1800s - early 1900s Number of derivative contracts traded annually Source: Annual reports, press clippings... produced by IMAREX Commodity Derivatives Growth IMM Singapore Norway Finland Brazil Japan London China Germany Russia Sydney Tanker freight 0 250M 750M 1.2B
48 Risk Management in Europe Sea Transportation Production Storage Refining Storage Marketing 48
49 European Energy Market Energy Merchants Distribution Company Residential Refiners & Power Generators Industrial & Commercial 49
50 European Energy Market Oil Professionals Energy Merchants Marketing Marketing Gas Price Formulae Oil Price Formulae Oil Derivatives Power Price Formulae Energy Endusers 50
51 European Energy Market Coal Markets Steam Coal Now! Forward Contracts Coal Derivatives Coking Coal Pet Coke 51
52 Energy Intensive Industries A Multi-Commodity Demand Limited Short term Arbitrage European Cement Industry Gas Fuel Combined Mad Risk cow Management Coal Offer Required Coke 52
53 Energy Risk Management Customer s Risk Mapping Tangible Risk + Events Commodities Flows + Equipments + Financing = Energy At Risk Intangible Risk + Skills 53
54 Energy Risk Management Risk Strategies Eliminate? Divestment Energy At Risk Retain? Insurance Transfer? Outsourcing 54 Hedging
55 Energy Risk Management Management Tools OUTSOURCING? Retainable Risk Equity LT Resources Working Capital Financing Risk Management Insurable Risk Credit Default «Derivatives» EventInsurance Policies Emission & Weather «Derivatives» CONSULTING? Hedgeable Risk Derivatives Instruments ENERGY Pricing Engineering DERIVATIVES Physical Forwards 55
56 Energy Risk Management Risk Merchants? E-Markets Insurance Brokers (Re) Insurers Energy At Risk ENTERPRISE-WIDE RISK MANAGEMENT Investment Banks Rating Agencies IT Vendors Consulting Firms «Big Five» Four 56
57 Energy Risk Management Endusers Risk Management Hedging Committee SKILLS Derivatives Physical procurement Hedge execution Hedging Committee Members : CEO + CFO + Supply Manager carry a potential financial risk? hence have to follow Ad Hoc procedures 57 Energy Endusers
58 Energy Risk Management Intermediation or Market Powers? Capital Adequacy Finance Manager Banks Balance Sheet CUSTOMER Event AT Insurance RISK A Risk CORPORATE Manager SOLUTION (Re-)Insurers Price Management Purchase Manager Know How Traders 58
59 What s next? USD/BBL
60 Can Market Powers be left on their own to regulate Supply Demand Imbalances? 60
61 Energy Risk Management On a way Beyond Petroleum Trading!
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