Oil Trading : From Supply / Demand Balancing To Price Risk Management

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Oil Trading : From Supply / Demand Balancing To Price Risk Management"

Transcription

1 Oil Trading : From Supply / Demand Balancing To Price Risk Management Frederic Baule TOTALFINAELF Trading Division 1

2 Once upon a time 2

3 Nymex decided to trade «futures» contracts for electricity in Palo Verde 65 US$/MWh Apr 96 SPOT And FORWARD

4 Forward prices were no cristal ball but Power Merchants were keen to learn. 65 US$/MWh Apr

5 Each learning curve has its price But they learned fast. 65 US$/MWh sometimes, a very high price! Apr 96 Apr 97 Apr

6 Power Price Risk Management was their future 65 US$/MWh Apr 96 Apr 97 Apr

7 as they did find The Martingale!

8 Or so they thought for a while! USD/MWH

9 And California went dark. 9

10 But the show had to go on

11 And on

12 And on

13 And went Off Line

14 What went wrong when? 14

15 What about Crude Oil Trading? Sea Transportation Production Storage Refining Storage Marketing 15

16 A Different Story? Nominal $/bl '98 $/bl Latest Low '98$ (17/11/98) Sources: BP, Platts

17 Challenged by «Macro» Parameters Irak invades Kuwait BRENT PRICES Kuwait increases Production 9/11 30 CIS Failed Putch Expectation Irak/UN USD/BBL Low Demand Excess Offer OPEC New Quotas

18 and rising Volatilities Volatility 70 In % Time Dec-94 Jun-95 Maturities Dec-95 Jun-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Brent - Historical 30 days annualised volatility 18

19 Crude Oil Trading relies on a robust Pricing Mecanism facilitating International Trades + Freight Differential + FinancingDifferential + QualityDifferential Crude Oil Price + Physical to Paper Differential «Paper» Crude Price 19

20 built gradualy 1975/1985 Long Term Contracts Fixed prices/volumes 2000 / 2002 within a Price Band? 1985/1986 Netback Formulas Product Prices Indexation 1980 s A Fixed Price Per Spot Cargo 1987 Indexation to a Crude Oil Reference 20

21 Without Supply Disruption 21

22 as Trading fills in short term imbalances To Asia From Asia China 233 China To Japan From Latin America 100 Crude Oil inter-regional regional movements in 2000 = 33.2 Mbd 22

23 The Result : an Integrated Market Combining Physical Trading. Forward Markets Brent 15 day... Physical Market «Dated» Brent Oil Markets Organised Markets IPE Brent Over the Counter Products Brent swap with Price Trading 23

24 Price Traders Floor Brokers e-trading OTC Brokers Supply / Demand NEWS! 24

25 Focused on Crude Oil Markers London New York Rotterdam Tokyo US Gulf Coast MED AG Singapore WTI Brent25 Dubai Oman Tapis

26 leading contributors to Oil Price Formation 700 Futures Contracts Accrued Volumes NYMEX Volumes IPE Volumes 100 World Oil Demand Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 26

27 translating Information into Prices,, in size. WTI Share 30% Non-Commercials Positions On Nymex WTI Contract $/Bbls 40 25% 20% % 24 10% 5% % Jan-86 Jul-87 Jan-89 Jul-90 Jan-92 Feb-93 Oct-93 Jun-94 Mar-95Nov-95Jul-96 Apr-97 Dec-97 Aug-98 Apr-99Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01Jan-02 8 Short Position % Long Position % 27

28 Oil is Liquid! 63 Inventories $33 Prices 61 $30 $27 59 $24 57 $21 $ $15 $12? J F M A M J Jy A S O N D $ Stocks in days of forward consumption 28

29 Oil Professionals care about Oil Fundamentals Stocks Kbbl 310, , , ,000 T-spread $/bbl , , , , , ,000 Jan-89 Mar-90 Apr-91 Jun-92 Aug-93 Oct-94 Dec-95 Jan-97 Mar-98 May-99 Jul-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks Time Spread (WTI 1 - WTI 2) 29

30 meaningful Time Structures

31 Products Trading? Production Storage Refining Storage Marketing 31

32 Price Forecasting Gas Oil - IPE USD/MT

33 not a Trader s job $MT Daily changes of IPE Gasoil Prices

34 fighting to survive day to day Price Actions... $MT

35 in much narrower Markets. 8 7 North America 8 27 Latin America Europe Africa Middle East Ex-USSR & E. Europe Asia-Pacific Only trade flows >4 Mt en 2000 World Oil Products Inter-regional regional Trade Flows Mt in 2000

36 Time Structure Gas Oil - IPE Weather Arbitrage USD/MT Offer Demand

37 Time Structure : Propane North West Europe USD/MT

38 Time Structure : Unleaded Gasoline North West Europe USD/MT

39 Time Structure : Automotive Gasoil North West Europe USD/MT

40 Time Structure : Low Sulfur Fuel Oil North West Europe USD/MT

41 Energy Merchants Weather Renewables A BUSINESS MODEL Emissions Multi Currency OIL IMPORTED COAL & COKE NATURAL GAS HYDRO + NUCLEAR + LOCAL COAL 41

42 European Energy Market Gas (and Power) Markets Oil Professionals Physical Gas Gas Derivatives Physical Oil Oil Derivatives Oil Trading Trading Firm Gas Price Formulae Gas Trading Energy Merchants 42

43 European Energy Market Improved Forward Liquidity USD/BBL Gas formulae

44 Facilitates forward refinery margins hedging Usd / Bbl Spot Refinery Margin based on Med indices 12 months Forward Refinery Margin 44

45 The Refiner : at the Center of the Supply Chain Crude Oil Products Production Storage Storage Marketing Trading Trading 45

46 facing a real managerial challenge. Petchem Market NatGas Market LPG Market Power Market Naphtha Market Crude Oil Market Gasoline Market Feedstocks Market Kerosene Market Fuel Market Heating Oil Market Diesel Market 46

47 Products Exchanges Drivers of Growth Lower barriers to trade Standardized products Increased competition Now! Risk management techniques Gold Butter, eggs, poultry Silver CBOT, NYMEX, CME, LME, Turkey futures Copper Futures for eggs, butter, cheese, potatoes, onions 47 Pork bellies Platinum Live hog futures Nickel Live cattle futures Mortgage futures Live hog futures options Palladium Aluminium Platinum options & futures Certificate of deposit futures Pork belly futures options Oil forwards and futures Feeder Heating oil cattle futures Paris Ammonia futures Broadband Natural gas options futures Gas futures Pulp futuresweather Live cattle futures optionsbarge freight index Edible oils index Catastroph y futures Propane Emissions futures Boneless beef futures & options Paper pulp swaps Steel scrap futures Biffex, Nordpool Lean hog futures & options Late 1800s - early 1900s Number of derivative contracts traded annually Source: Annual reports, press clippings... produced by IMAREX Commodity Derivatives Growth IMM Singapore Norway Finland Brazil Japan London China Germany Russia Sydney Tanker freight 0 250M 750M 1.2B

48 Risk Management in Europe Sea Transportation Production Storage Refining Storage Marketing 48

49 European Energy Market Energy Merchants Distribution Company Residential Refiners & Power Generators Industrial & Commercial 49

50 European Energy Market Oil Professionals Energy Merchants Marketing Marketing Gas Price Formulae Oil Price Formulae Oil Derivatives Power Price Formulae Energy Endusers 50

51 European Energy Market Coal Markets Steam Coal Now! Forward Contracts Coal Derivatives Coking Coal Pet Coke 51

52 Energy Intensive Industries A Multi-Commodity Demand Limited Short term Arbitrage European Cement Industry Gas Fuel Combined Mad Risk cow Management Coal Offer Required Coke 52

53 Energy Risk Management Customer s Risk Mapping Tangible Risk + Events Commodities Flows + Equipments + Financing = Energy At Risk Intangible Risk + Skills 53

54 Energy Risk Management Risk Strategies Eliminate? Divestment Energy At Risk Retain? Insurance Transfer? Outsourcing 54 Hedging

55 Energy Risk Management Management Tools OUTSOURCING? Retainable Risk Equity LT Resources Working Capital Financing Risk Management Insurable Risk Credit Default «Derivatives» EventInsurance Policies Emission & Weather «Derivatives» CONSULTING? Hedgeable Risk Derivatives Instruments ENERGY Pricing Engineering DERIVATIVES Physical Forwards 55

56 Energy Risk Management Risk Merchants? E-Markets Insurance Brokers (Re) Insurers Energy At Risk ENTERPRISE-WIDE RISK MANAGEMENT Investment Banks Rating Agencies IT Vendors Consulting Firms «Big Five» Four 56

57 Energy Risk Management Endusers Risk Management Hedging Committee SKILLS Derivatives Physical procurement Hedge execution Hedging Committee Members : CEO + CFO + Supply Manager carry a potential financial risk? hence have to follow Ad Hoc procedures 57 Energy Endusers

58 Energy Risk Management Intermediation or Market Powers? Capital Adequacy Finance Manager Banks Balance Sheet CUSTOMER Event AT Insurance RISK A Risk CORPORATE Manager SOLUTION (Re-)Insurers Price Management Purchase Manager Know How Traders 58

59 What s next? USD/BBL

60 Can Market Powers be left on their own to regulate Supply Demand Imbalances? 60

61 Energy Risk Management On a way Beyond Petroleum Trading!

Opening address for dinner-debate

Opening address for dinner-debate Opening address for dinner-debate Mohammed Barkindo Acting for the OPEC Secretary General European Parliament Strasbourg, France 4 July 2006 1 Outline Importance of EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue Current oil

More information

Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook. 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016

Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook. 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016 Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016 Oil world changed on Nov. 27 th 2014 $/bbl 120 Brent crude oil 100 80 60 40 Copyright 2016 Argus Media 20

More information

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights DeWitt Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai,

More information

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals Outline Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Energy 120 90 60 Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source:

More information

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John R. Auers Executive Vice President AIChE Dallas Chapter April Section Meeting April 28, 2015 Page 1 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C began publishing

More information

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John Mayes Director of Special Studies AFPM Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 24, 2015 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C publishes North American

More information

Global growth prospects

Global growth prospects Global growth prospects Percent 6 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 5 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

More information

Energy Security: Markets and Policy

Energy Security: Markets and Policy Energy Security: Markets and Policy Pierre Noël EPRG, University of Cambridge Critical Infrastructure Conference, London, 20 April 2011 Contents Global Oil and the Middle East European Gas and Russia Japan

More information

4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Riyadh, 22 January 2014

4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Riyadh, 22 January 2014 4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks Riyadh, 22 January 2014 Spare or stranded?* mb/d 7.0 Medium-Term Oil Market Balance 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

More information

Russian ESPO: Impact on EOS Crude Markets

Russian ESPO: Impact on EOS Crude Markets Russian ESPO: Impact on EOS Crude Markets Argus ESPO Conference 2012 Marina Mandarin, 10 11 December 2012 Singapore Dr. Tilak K. Doshi Principal Fellow & Head, Economics, Energy Studies Institute Nahim

More information

Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist

Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Disclaimer Disclaimer: The statements in this presentation do not represent the official views of the

More information

Market Report Series Oil 2017

Market Report Series Oil 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower

More information

FREIGHT DYNAMICS IN THE LOW PRICE CLIMATE METAL BULLETIN INTERNATIONAL IRON ORE SYMPOSIUM

FREIGHT DYNAMICS IN THE LOW PRICE CLIMATE METAL BULLETIN INTERNATIONAL IRON ORE SYMPOSIUM FREIGHT DYNAMICS IN THE LOW PRICE CLIMATE METAL BULLETIN INTERNATIONAL IRON ORE SYMPOSIUM JUNE 216 PRESENTATION STRUCTURE year-to-date freight market in perspective 1q16 sees vessel earnings sink to historic

More information

Percent

Percent Outline Outline Growth is picking up Percent 6 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 5 4 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015

More information

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty

More information

FREIGHT AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES METAL BULLETIN INTERNATIONAL IRON ORE SYMPOSIUM

FREIGHT AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES METAL BULLETIN INTERNATIONAL IRON ORE SYMPOSIUM FREIGHT AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES METAL BULLETIN INTERNATIONAL IRON ORE SYMPOSIUM JUNE 215 PRESENTATION STRUCTURE current situation acutely depressed actual & expected earnings China slowdown more severe

More information

Market Insights. June 30, 2018

Market Insights. June 30, 2018 June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

More information

Market Insights. March 29, 2019

Market Insights. March 29, 2019 March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%

More information

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Gulf Research Center November 23, 2005 A. F. Alhajji*, PhD Gulf Energy Program - Moderator Gulf Research Center Dubai, UAE *A. F. Alhajji, PhD is also George Patten

More information

OIL MARKET REPORT OCTOBER 2018

OIL MARKET REPORT OCTOBER 2018 16 November OIL MARKET REPORT OCTOBER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In October crude oil market caught a bear flu after almost gripping the $90 per barrel price level (Brent). In the beginning of October the market

More information

OIL MARKET REPORT DECEMBER 2016

OIL MARKET REPORT DECEMBER 2016 18 January 217 OIL MARKET REPORT DECEMBER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since OPEC end-november meeting the price has been trading above $5 per bbl. Implementation of the deal and new promises from Saudi Arabia will

More information

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality?

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? 18 th May 2004 Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? Investors have perceived the steel industry negatively Poor returns over the long term, high volatility, relatively small size

More information

Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook

Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Mare Forum, Jakarta 27 Peter Malpas 29 th November 27 Introduction Indonesia Key Facts Land Area 1,919,44 km2 = World s s 16 th Largest Population

More information

Sulphur Market Outlook

Sulphur Market Outlook Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research

More information

Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook

Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook Alaska Resources Development Council November 14-15, 2018 Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook David R. Hammond, Ph.D. Principal Mineral Economist Hammond International Group Commodities

More information

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers

More information

MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017

MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 2017 1 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS 2 Energy exports/imports (million tonnes) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

More information

PEMEX PETROQUIMICA 2013 ANNUAL CONFERENCE. PCI Xylenes & Polyester Doug Rightler

PEMEX PETROQUIMICA 2013 ANNUAL CONFERENCE. PCI Xylenes & Polyester Doug Rightler PEMEX PETROQUIMICA 2013 ANNUAL CONFERENCE PCI Xylenes & Polyester Doug Rightler Discussion Points» MEG demand growth by region.» MEG supply - China is in control or is it?» Price drivers - the Chinese

More information

SEB Commodities Research

SEB Commodities Research SEB Commodities Research Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Nov 5-2014 Bjarne Schieldrop Head of SEB Commodities Research Bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Aug-13

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace 2.0 Global oil demand growth 2014-2022 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

Downstream & Chemicals

Downstream & Chemicals Downstream & Chemicals Mike Wirth Executive Vice President Themes Strategy Performance Growth 2 Strategy Focused on Improving Returns Improve returns and grow earnings across the value chain Operational

More information

Global Boxboard Market Review

Global Boxboard Market Review Global Boxboard Market Review Sailing In A World Of Volatility And Uncertainty European Conference March 2018 Alejandro Mata Senior Economist, European Forest Products Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary

More information

Oil for Heating and Transportation Maine Per Capita Use is High A 2017 Perspective Presented by Jamie Py

Oil for Heating and Transportation Maine Per Capita Use is High A 2017 Perspective Presented by Jamie Py Oil for Heating and Transportation Maine Per Capita Use is High A 2017 Perspective Presented by Jamie Py October 2017 Perspectives Maine Fuel Marketer Background 2017 Reducing Oil Use. The Why and How

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX August 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated

More information

Product Tanker Market

Product Tanker Market Product Tanker Market Chemical & Product Tanker Conference London 8 th 9 th March 2011 Presented by Simon Newman Senior Tanker Analyst Historical Earnings & Asset Prices Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02

More information

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook AAEA Annual Meeting Extension Track August 14, 2012 James G. Robb Director james.robb@lmic.info 29 land Grant Universities: USDA Members: ERS APHIS

More information

How is Natural Gas Availability Curtailing the growth of DRI production in the MENA region?

How is Natural Gas Availability Curtailing the growth of DRI production in the MENA region? How is Natural Gas Availability Curtailing the growth of DRI production in the MENA region? 29 April 2014 World DRI & Pellet Congress Abu Dhabi Robert Smith 1 The Issues Natural gas availability in the

More information

Simply Put, Just too Much! Copyright AgResource Company. All All Rights Reserved.

Simply Put, Just too Much! Copyright AgResource Company. All All Rights Reserved. Simply Put, Just too Much! Ag Market Driers for 2014? World Food inflation to rise 3.7% in 2014 (s. 2.9% in 2013) drien primarily by gains in liestock/dairy prices. Total 2014 world meat production down.8%.

More information

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX September 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and

More information

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.

More information

Cyclical gains but structural challenges

Cyclical gains but structural challenges Cyclical gains but structural challenges Brian Pearce Chief Economist www.iata.org/economics To represent, lead and serve the airline industry % change over year PMI index level, 50=no change Economic

More information

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Cattle Situation and Outlook Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City Cattle Situation and Outlook Tim Petry Livestock Economist www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics September 2, 2015 Washburn Livestock Outlook-9-1-15.pptx TO ALL

More information

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 What is Colombian Ministry of Finance s outlook and funding strategies

More information

What can we expect from the energy markets in 2017?

What can we expect from the energy markets in 2017? What can we expect from the energy markets in 2017? Luc De Leersnyder & Jens Lievens E&C Consultants 23/11/2016 What do we do? ENERGY PROCUREMENT CONSULTANCY Gas & electricity Focused on price, not on

More information

Producer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges -

Producer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges - Producer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges - Klaus Rehaag Head, Oil Industry & Markets Division Editor, Oil Market Report International Energy Agency Paris, France klaus.rehaag@iea.org Asia

More information

Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook

Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook August 9, 2018 Missouri Farm Bureau Commodity Conference Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu

More information

Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore

Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore John Barkas john.barkas@metalytics.com.au Iron Ore 2015 Perth WA, 13 July 2015 Disclaimer Metalytics is a consultancy based in Sydney, Australia that

More information

Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years

Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years AUTOMOTIVE Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years 22 September 2016 Hannover, Germany Andrej Divis, Director, IHS Automotive +1 703 346 2331, Andrej.Divis@ihsmarkit.com 2 Index, over

More information

Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc

Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc Global Commodities Forum Palais des Nations, Geneva 22-23 March 2010 Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc by Mr. Don Smale, Secretary General, International Lead and Zinc Study

More information

The New Drivers for Black Sea and World Grain Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Reserved.

The New Drivers for Black Sea and World Grain Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Reserved. The New Driers for Black Sea and World Grain - 2014 Copyright 2014 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Resered. Ag Market Driers for 2014? World Food inflation to rise 3.2% in 2013 (s 2.7% in 2012) drien

More information

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018 Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

More information

Market Report Series. Spanish Energy Club, Madrid, 3 May 2018

Market Report Series. Spanish Energy Club, Madrid, 3 May 2018 Market Report Series Oil 2018 Spanish Energy Club, Madrid, 3 May 2018 Neil Atkinson, Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division Toril Bosoni, Senior Oil Market Analyst, Oil Industry and Markets Division

More information

MEXICAN MINING INDUSTRY RECENT DEVELOPMENT. Toronto, Canada March, 2016

MEXICAN MINING INDUSTRY RECENT DEVELOPMENT. Toronto, Canada March, 2016 MEXICAN MINING INDUSTRY RECENT DEVELOPMENT Toronto, Canada March, 2016 1. Mexican Mining Industry 2015 2. Mineral Market Outlook 3. Mexican Mining Advantages 4. Mexican Mining Competitiveness 2 MEXICAN

More information

Livestock Market Trends

Livestock Market Trends Livestock Market Trends Farm$mart Agricultural Conference January 18, 2014 John Bancroft Market Strategies Program Lead john.bancroft@ontario.ca 519-271-6974 Today s Discussion 2014 FCC Market Drivers

More information

Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) Can Iranian slabs & HRC support SE Asian steel industries?

Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) Can Iranian slabs & HRC support SE Asian steel industries? (MSC) Can Iranian slabs & HRC support SE Asian steel industries? JAKARTA June 2018 Iranian slab, an opportunity for SE Asia flat producers Overview of global slab trade Slab trade in SE Asia (MSC) An overview

More information

Airline industry outlook 2019

Airline industry outlook 2019 Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE

More information

DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015

DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 1 EVERYONE HAS A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE 2 HE WHO IS NOT COURAGEOUS ENOUGH TO TAKE RISKS WILL ACCOMPLISH NOTHING IN LIFE 3 IT

More information

Market Outlook January,

Market Outlook January, Market Outlook 2004 January, 2004 www.teekay.com Forward Looking Statements This document contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended)

More information

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla Agricultural Trade Policy in the U.S. Can reform advance domestic policy objectives and sustainable development?

More information

Beef Cattle Market Update

Beef Cattle Market Update Beef Cattle Market Update August 8, 2017 Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences University of Missouri brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu Twitter

More information

New Growth Segments for the Air Cargo Industry

New Growth Segments for the Air Cargo Industry Page 1 New Growth Segments for the Air Cargo Industry 4 th Air Cargo Economics Conference Prague, April 22-23, 2004 Page 2 Assumptions Primary commodity sectors and their growth Perishables: are they really

More information

Cattle and Beef Markets: Short and Long Run Challenges and Opportunities

Cattle and Beef Markets: Short and Long Run Challenges and Opportunities Cattle and Beef Markets: Short and Long Run Challenges and Opportunities Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University Major

More information

Commodity prices ( pink sheet ) are updated on the third business day of each month (the next update will be posted on May 4, 2016).

Commodity prices ( pink sheet ) are updated on the third business day of each month (the next update will be posted on May 4, 2016). The latest edition of the World Bank s Commodity Markets Outlook was published on January 26, 2016. The next edition will be published tomorrow at 3:00 pm EST! Commodity prices ( pink sheet ) are updated

More information

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO Symposium Energieinnovation

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO Symposium Energieinnovation OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO 2020 11. Symposium Energieinnovation 23 February 2010 Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbH 10. Februar 2010 Research Energy Studies Consulting

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX July 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its

More information

UK Energy Futures. Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy

UK Energy Futures. Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy UK Energy Futures Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy September 2012 Our 2012 scenario development Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Stakeholder workshops (London &

More information

Main Outlook update results and drivers Wildcards and Emerging Issues

Main Outlook update results and drivers Wildcards and Emerging Issues The outlook for agricultural markets in the next decade: focus on price variability Jacinto Fabiosa Co-Director, FAPRI (515) 294-6183 jfabiosa@iastate.edu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

More information

Nasdaq Dubai AED TRADING HOLIDAYS AND SETTLEMENT CALENDAR 2018 For Equities Outsourced to the DFM (T+2)

Nasdaq Dubai AED TRADING HOLIDAYS AND SETTLEMENT CALENDAR 2018 For Equities Outsourced to the DFM (T+2) NasdaqDubai Circular No: 14 /2018 Date of Issue: 13 March 2018 Date of Expiry : Upon issue of replacement Circular Nasdaq Dubai AED TRADING HOLIDAYS AND SETTLEMENT CALENDAR 2018 For Equities Outsourced

More information

Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions,

Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area

More information

MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016

MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016 MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE Matthew Marsh September 2016 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

More information

Calendar On US Federal Reserve Holidays, no settlements will take place for USD.

Calendar On US Federal Reserve Holidays, no settlements will take place for USD. NASDAQ Dubai Notice No: NASDAQ Dubai Trading Holidays and Settlement Calendar 2012 Date of Issue: NASDAQ Dubai TRADING HOLIDAYS AND SETTLEMENT CALENDAR 2012 For Derivatives, Exchange Traded Commodities,

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE

More information

Alloy Production Is Brazil Back Online?

Alloy Production Is Brazil Back Online? Alloy Production Is Brazil Back Online? Singapore, March 23 rd, 2016 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic,

More information

Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle

Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu

More information

STORM FORECASTS: The only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture historical market data and forecasts

STORM FORECASTS: The only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture historical market data and forecasts The only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture historical market data and forecasts June 2016 1 What is STORM FORECASTS? STORM FORECASTS is the only independent source of animal health

More information

Beef Outlook. Regional Dealer Event. February 9, Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences

Beef Outlook. Regional Dealer Event. February 9, Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences Beef Outlook Regional Dealer Event February 9, 2018 Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu $ Per Cwt. MED. & LRG.

More information

Q results November 20, 2002

Q results November 20, 2002 Q3 2002 results November 20, 2002 1 Agenda Introduction Market update outlook Corporate financial status Other 2 24 Suezmaxes 40 + 1 N/B VLCCs Oldest ship from 1990 Average age 6.5 years Industry Average

More information

10/18/2015. Outline. Commodity Outlook

10/18/2015. Outline. Commodity Outlook Commodity Outlook Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu http://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/koontz

More information

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow,

More information

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 25, 2011 Situation Facing Livestock

More information

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch February 2017

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch February 2017 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch February 2017 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

Webinar: Trends in renewable energy support

Webinar: Trends in renewable energy support Webinar: Trends in renewable energy support Is the Spanish case a forerunner for the rest of the EU? Matthew Jones Senior Analyst EU Power & Carbon Anise Ganbold Senior Analyst EU Power & Carbon 12 July

More information

Pressure building in the tin market?

Pressure building in the tin market? Pressure building in the tin market? DATE: 25 May 2017 PREPARED BY: Cui Lin PREPARED FOR: SHFE Conference Presentation overview 2016 in review Recent market trends The outlook for supply and demand Summary

More information

2012 Annual Conference THE HEAT IS ON! A New World Competition

2012 Annual Conference THE HEAT IS ON! A New World Competition 2012 Annual Conference THE HEAT IS ON! A New World Competition Going for Gold! Review of Global Hotel Performance with a focus on Olympic performance Elizabeth Winkle, STR Global InterContinental Buckhead

More information

Alistair Wallace. Director, Senior Consultant and Nitrogen Team Lead CRU Group. Nitrogen Outlook

Alistair Wallace. Director, Senior Consultant and Nitrogen Team Lead CRU Group. Nitrogen Outlook Alistair Wallace Director, Senior Consultant and Nitrogen Team Lead CRU Group Nitrogen Outlook Strong demand fundamentals underpin nitrogen market, but... Presentation Structure...producers have overcooked

More information

Global Containerboard Outlook

Global Containerboard Outlook Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper

More information

Cattle & Beef Outlook

Cattle & Beef Outlook Cattle & Beef Outlook Friday, August 18, 2017 Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Expansion continues, but has moderated

More information

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government

More information

Cattle Market Outlook & Important Profit Factors for Cattle Producers

Cattle Market Outlook & Important Profit Factors for Cattle Producers Cattle Market Outlook & Important Profit Factors for Cattle Producers Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu $

More information

The best design acknowledges that you can't disconnect the form from the material.

The best design acknowledges that you can't disconnect the form from the material. Sir Jonathan Ive Senior Vice President of Design, Apple Inc. The best design acknowledges that you can't disconnect the form from the material. The material informs the form. The only way to make the MacBook

More information

Market Correlations: Copper

Market Correlations: Copper Market Correlations: Copper January 19, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices

2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices 2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices Methodology 28 countries and 10 US cities Airlines, Hotel, Rental Car Forecast in USD, guidelines on currency exchange forecast Forecast projections

More information

Financial assets. The need to raise money vertebrates economies

Financial assets. The need to raise money vertebrates economies 1 8 March 2016 2 8 March 2016 Financial assets The need to raise money vertebrates economies Financial asset = promise of payment in the future in exchange for receiving money now Function: way of saving

More information

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Post-Bubble Global Trends AAPA Webinar February 18, 2009 Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Takeaways The world economy is circling the drain World is wealthier

More information