Airlines, the economy and air transport demand

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1 Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

2 Returns for airlines investors lower this year; still good % of invested capital Return on capital invested in airlines Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, End-Year 2016 report Cost of capital (WACC) Return on capital (ROIC)

3 But performance is very different between the regions 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Net post-tax profit margins N America Europe Asia Pacific Midle East L America Africa Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry end year 2016 report

4 EBIT as % revenues Industry profitability peaked a year ago 16% Quarterly profile for airline industry operating profits (EBIT) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Seasonally adjusted margins Unadjusted margins 2% 0% -2% Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry end year 2016 report Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

5 US$ per barrel Profit margins are being squeezed Indexed to equal l 100 in Jnauary Airline passenger yield and crude oil prices, indexed Passenger yield Oil price Source: IATA using data from PaxIS+ and Haver Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

6 But volumes are up with a revival in air travel YTD Feb 2017 Industry 7.0% Middle East 11.4% Asia Pacific 9.5% Europe 7.3% Africa 5.4% L. America 3.9% N. America 1.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Revenue passenger kilometres (YTD, % year-on-year) Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics

7 And a strong performance from air cargo Freight tonne kilometres (% year-on-year) February 2017 Industry 8.4% Asia Pacific Africa Europe N. America Middle East L. America -4.9% 3.4% 5.8% 10.6% 10.5% 11.8% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics

8 2000 Source: IATA Statistics, Netherlands CPB Part of cargo revival is improved share of world trade Indices (Jan 2012=100, seasonally adjusted) Global FTKs Ratio of global FTKs to world trade volumes World trade volumes Rising FTK share Sources: IATA Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics, CPB

9 50 = no change in output expected But there is also a broad revival of business confidence 60 Business confidence in developed and emerging economies Developed economies Emerging economies Source: IATA Economics using data from Markit

10 Consumers have become more confident too Worldwide average consumer confidence Source: IATA Economics using data from Datastream

11 Perhaps surprisingly given political shocks Donald Trump Vows to Rip Up Trade Deals and Confront China The New York Times 28 June 2016

12 Will the IMF economic growth forecast be right at last? 5 IMF forecasts of global economic growth (using market exchange rates), % y-o-y April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016 January 2017 Latest data point Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databases

13 % interest rate Billion US$ Monetary policy effectiveness is exhausted US federal funds target rate and balance sheet assets US Federal Reserve Bank assets US fed funds Source: IATA Economics using data from Haver

14 But fiscal policies recently became a stimulus to growth Change in general government structural budget as % GDP Source: IATA Economics using data from the IMF World Economic Outlook US Euro area China Tighter/ deflationary fiscal policy Looser/ reflationary fiscal policy

15 Changes in trade competitiveness spread the recovery 140 Real effective exchange rates China US Germany Brazil Deteriorating competitiveness Improving competitiveness Source: IATA Economics using data from the World Bank

16 % change versus year ago Economic growth converging in key regions Source: IATA Economics using data from Oxford Economics Economic growth in key regions and countries China United States Brazil European Union

17 Rising demand to travel even under gloomy scenarios Global passengers (O-D basis, billion) Policy stimulus and open borders Constant policies scenario A pick up in protectionism Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016

18 Centre of gravity of air travel shifting fast towards China Source: IATA Economics using data from PaxIS+

19 Change in top-10 air travel markets over next 20 years US 0.9 The 10 largest air passenger markets over time (ranked by passenger numbers, to, from and within each country) 12 China 10 China 1.9 UK US India 8 Japan UK Spain 4.9 Indonesia 6 Germany Japan 4 India 6.9 Spain Italy Germany 2 France8.9 Thailand Indonesia France 0 1 Source: IATA/TE Passenger Forecast service 1 Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

20 Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

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