Airlines, the economy and air transport demand

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Airlines, the economy and air transport demand"

Transcription

1 Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

2 Returns for airlines investors lower this year; still good % of invested capital Return on capital invested in airlines Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, End-Year 2016 report Cost of capital (WACC) Return on capital (ROIC)

3 But performance is very different between the regions 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Net post-tax profit margins N America Europe Asia Pacific Midle East L America Africa Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry end year 2016 report

4 EBIT as % revenues Industry profitability peaked a year ago 16% Quarterly profile for airline industry operating profits (EBIT) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Seasonally adjusted margins Unadjusted margins 2% 0% -2% Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry end year 2016 report Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

5 US$ per barrel Profit margins are being squeezed Indexed to equal l 100 in Jnauary Airline passenger yield and crude oil prices, indexed Passenger yield Oil price Source: IATA using data from PaxIS+ and Haver Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

6 But volumes are up with a revival in air travel YTD Feb 2017 Industry 7.0% Middle East 11.4% Asia Pacific 9.5% Europe 7.3% Africa 5.4% L. America 3.9% N. America 1.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Revenue passenger kilometres (YTD, % year-on-year) Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics

7 And a strong performance from air cargo Freight tonne kilometres (% year-on-year) February 2017 Industry 8.4% Asia Pacific Africa Europe N. America Middle East L. America -4.9% 3.4% 5.8% 10.6% 10.5% 11.8% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics

8 2000 Source: IATA Statistics, Netherlands CPB Part of cargo revival is improved share of world trade Indices (Jan 2012=100, seasonally adjusted) Global FTKs Ratio of global FTKs to world trade volumes World trade volumes Rising FTK share Sources: IATA Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics, CPB

9 50 = no change in output expected But there is also a broad revival of business confidence 60 Business confidence in developed and emerging economies Developed economies Emerging economies Source: IATA Economics using data from Markit

10 Consumers have become more confident too Worldwide average consumer confidence Source: IATA Economics using data from Datastream

11 Perhaps surprisingly given political shocks Donald Trump Vows to Rip Up Trade Deals and Confront China The New York Times 28 June 2016

12 Will the IMF economic growth forecast be right at last? 5 IMF forecasts of global economic growth (using market exchange rates), % y-o-y April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016 January 2017 Latest data point Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databases

13 % interest rate Billion US$ Monetary policy effectiveness is exhausted US federal funds target rate and balance sheet assets US Federal Reserve Bank assets US fed funds Source: IATA Economics using data from Haver

14 But fiscal policies recently became a stimulus to growth Change in general government structural budget as % GDP Source: IATA Economics using data from the IMF World Economic Outlook US Euro area China Tighter/ deflationary fiscal policy Looser/ reflationary fiscal policy

15 Changes in trade competitiveness spread the recovery 140 Real effective exchange rates China US Germany Brazil Deteriorating competitiveness Improving competitiveness Source: IATA Economics using data from the World Bank

16 % change versus year ago Economic growth converging in key regions Source: IATA Economics using data from Oxford Economics Economic growth in key regions and countries China United States Brazil European Union

17 Rising demand to travel even under gloomy scenarios Global passengers (O-D basis, billion) Policy stimulus and open borders Constant policies scenario A pick up in protectionism Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016

18 Centre of gravity of air travel shifting fast towards China Source: IATA Economics using data from PaxIS+

19 Change in top-10 air travel markets over next 20 years US 0.9 The 10 largest air passenger markets over time (ranked by passenger numbers, to, from and within each country) 12 China 10 China 1.9 UK US India 8 Japan UK Spain 4.9 Indonesia 6 Germany Japan 4 India 6.9 Spain Italy Germany 2 France8.9 Thailand Indonesia France 0 1 Source: IATA/TE Passenger Forecast service 1 Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

20 Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop

Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits

Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 50 = no change in output expected Widespread

More information

Outlook for airline markets and industry performance

Outlook for airline markets and industry performance Outlook for airline markets and industry performance June 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist International Air Transport Association % change over previous year Confidence index. 50 = no change The already

More information

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1

More information

Cyclical gains but structural challenges

Cyclical gains but structural challenges Cyclical gains but structural challenges Brian Pearce Chief Economist www.iata.org/economics To represent, lead and serve the airline industry % change over year PMI index level, 50=no change Economic

More information

Chief Economist s Report

Chief Economist s Report Chief Economist s Report 22 February 2017 IATA Legal Symposium, Washington Brian Pearce Chief Economist, IATA Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Themes 1. World economy still stuck on

More information

Economic performance of the airline industry end-2017 update

Economic performance of the airline industry end-2017 update Economic performance of the airline industry end-2017 update December 2017 Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 City-pair connections

More information

Global economic cycle has slowed

Global economic cycle has slowed Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence

More information

Airline industry outlook 2019

Airline industry outlook 2019 Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE

More information

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8%

More information

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018 Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 % total revenues % total revenues Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% Share of airlines'

More information

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018 Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

More information

Airline Industry Economics

Airline Industry Economics Airline Industry Economics AWG presentation 21 May 2015 Brian Pearce, Chief Economist www.iata.org/economics To represent, lead and serve the airline industry Brent crude oil price, $/b US dollar trade-weighted

More information

Global air transport: developments and issues

Global air transport: developments and issues Global air transport: developments and issues Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics 5 th July 2017, Antwerp Number of unique city-pairs US$/RTK in 2014US$ Airlines continue to connect

More information

The structure of the euro area recovery

The structure of the euro area recovery The structure of the euro area recovery Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist JPMorgan Investor Seminar, IMF Annual Meetings Washington, October 2017 The euro area: a systemic player in global trade Trade openness

More information

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

Global trade: how does it look?

Global trade: how does it look? Edmonton, December 2018 Global trade: how does it look? Marie-France Paquet The Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada Overview 1. Canadian economy at a glance 2. Provincial economy at a glance

More information

After the British referendum

After the British referendum Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE

More information

From Recession to Recovery

From Recession to Recovery From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

World Financial Symposium

World Financial Symposium World Financial Symposium 22 23 September 2016 Marina Bay Sands Singapore World Financial Symposium 2014 World Financial Symposium 2016 Opening Remarks Aleks Popovich SVP Financial and Distribution Services,

More information

Market Insights. March 29, 2019

Market Insights. March 29, 2019 March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%

More information

Market Insights. June 30, 2018

Market Insights. June 30, 2018 June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction

More information

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and

More information

Global Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009

Global Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 Global Construction Outlook: Short-term term Pain, Long-term Gain Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 What This Means for You The world is set to be hit this year with

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

Economic & Financial Market Outlook

Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets

More information

Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions,

Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area

More information

Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union. Roma, Rapporto Europa 2015

Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union. Roma, Rapporto Europa 2015 Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union Rapporto Europa 2015 Roma, 9.7.2015 1 Table of Content I. The political threat Why European monetary union? II. Europe

More information

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 India Two views of the largest economies in 2005 Top 12 economies by GDP,

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

Opening address for dinner-debate

Opening address for dinner-debate Opening address for dinner-debate Mohammed Barkindo Acting for the OPEC Secretary General European Parliament Strasbourg, France 4 July 2006 1 Outline Importance of EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue Current oil

More information

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011 Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005

More information

Shifts in Global Trade Patterns

Shifts in Global Trade Patterns Shifts in Global Trade Patterns Presented to: AAPA Shifting International Trade Routes and Planning for the Panama Canal Expansion January 23, 2008 Port of Tampa Presented by: Robert West Managing Director

More information

Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy

Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor

More information

Three-speed economic recovery

Three-speed economic recovery Three-speed economic recovery Projection after 2012 GDP growth, percent 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Euro area -4-6 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: IMF WEO, April 2013. Emerging market and developing economies

More information

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Peterson Institute for International Economics 9 th October 2014 Washington DC The Shifts and the

More information

Vermont Economic Conference:

Vermont Economic Conference: Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference

More information

RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE. (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last?

RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE. (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last? RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last? Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics CONCLUSIONS OF

More information

Hotel Performance and Outlook

Hotel Performance and Outlook Hotel Performance and Outlook HICAP 2016 Jesper Palmqvist 20 October apinfo@strglobal.com 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without

More information

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, 7996.16, 11% Africa, 3962.51, 6% Latin

More information

Montreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future

Montreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future Outline The global economy and

More information

HotelBenchmark Survey and assessment of European hotel performance trends

HotelBenchmark Survey and assessment of European hotel performance trends A HotelBenchmark Survey and assessment of European hotel performance trends Launch of the HotelBenchmark Survey for Belgium and The Netherlands Julia Felton Executive Director HotelBenchmark HotelBenchmark

More information

Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.

Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics. Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs

More information

SA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018

SA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018 SA economic review Kevin Lings August 2018 South Africa real GDP growth year-on-year %y/y 8 7 6 5 Ave 4.3% 4 Ave 2.5% 3 2 Ave 0.9% 1 0-1 -2-3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2

More information

economic and financial outlook

economic and financial outlook Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in

More information

Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Grantham Institute for Climate Change Annual Lecture 2011 3 rd November

More information

The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference

The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented

More information

Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc

Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc Global Commodities Forum Palais des Nations, Geneva 22-23 March 2010 Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc by Mr. Don Smale, Secretary General, International Lead and Zinc Study

More information

Assessing Risks to the Global Economy Amid Rising Political Uncertainty

Assessing Risks to the Global Economy Amid Rising Political Uncertainty AUTOMOTIVE Assessing Risks to the Global Economy Amid Rising Political Uncertainty 8 September 2016 Detroit Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, +1 781 301 9101, nariman.behravesh@ihsmarkit.com. All Rights

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA

More information

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible

More information

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management) The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas

More information

The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department

The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department Political stress and Government Yield Curve Yield Curve - Brazil 0#DIJ: Yield 15,8 15,655 15,655 15,6 15,4 YC; 0#DIJ:; Trade Price; Realtime;

More information

Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals

Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals April 2016 Craig Wright (SVP & Chief Economist) (416) 974-7457 craig.wright@rbc.com Volatility index Market volatility index, (VIX) 90 80 70

More information

The World Did Not End in Q1

The World Did Not End in Q1 The World Did Not End in Q1 Sam Wilkin Senior Advisor, Business Research Blog: www.samwilkin.com 06.2015 1 2 3 4 5 Exports to Russia: 10% of Finnish exports; 4% of Finnish GDP 1. Global Economic Weather

More information

Japanese Market Potential

Japanese Market Potential Growth Strategy (announced on 14 June 2013) : Japan is BACK. Overall Target: 2% Real GDP Growth in the next 10 years JPY1.5 million Increase of GNI/capita after 10 years Unleash the Potential of Private

More information

Global Containerboard Outlook

Global Containerboard Outlook Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper

More information

Panel on Post-Crisis Growth Performance Determinants, Effects and Policy Implications

Panel on Post-Crisis Growth Performance Determinants, Effects and Policy Implications Panel on Post-Crisis Growth Performance Determinants, Effects and Policy Implications Carmen M. Harvard University Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Ottawa, June 8-9, 2015 1 Outline (i)

More information

Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by:

Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by: Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis May 8 th, 2008 Presented by: Patricia Croft, Vice President & Chief Economist Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Limited

More information

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC OUTLINE OF

More information

Forecast evaluation report Robert Chote Chairman

Forecast evaluation report Robert Chote Chairman Forecast evaluation report 2017 Robert Chote Chairman Background to the FER The FER is an annual report looking at the performance of past EFO forecasts against the latest outturn data Rationale Accountability

More information

URBAN LAND INSTITUTE

URBAN LAND INSTITUTE URBAN LAND INSTITUTE 2012 ULI FALL MEETING (Denver, 18 October 2012) The Global Economic Outlook Dark clouds on the horizon Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford Oxford Economics and REAG

More information

Market Outlook January,

Market Outlook January, Market Outlook 2004 January, 2004 www.teekay.com Forward Looking Statements This document contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended)

More information

Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition

Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition May 7 and 8, 2013 İstanbul, Turkey Outline 1 The Financial System 2 Weak Growth 3 4 5 Unprecedented

More information

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers

More information

2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices

2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices 2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices Methodology 28 countries and 10 US cities Airlines, Hotel, Rental Car Forecast in USD, guidelines on currency exchange forecast Forecast projections

More information

Trade and Economic Trends

Trade and Economic Trends Trade and Economic Trends Marine Terminal Management Training Program Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce & Transportation IHS Global Insight Long Beach, CA September 21, 2009 The Global Recession

More information

Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right?

Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right? Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right? Jean-Paul Fitoussi Professor, IEP Paris President, OFCE «Culture and Knowledge: Local Systems in a Global Context» European Colloquia Prague,

More information

Composition of Federal Spending

Composition of Federal Spending *For Institutional Use Only* Demographic and Economic Trends: Growth, Debt and Promises Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory services

More information

The economic value of the EU shipping industry. Andrew P Goodwin

The economic value of the EU shipping industry. Andrew P Goodwin The economic value of the EU shipping industry Andrew P Goodwin 2 nd April 2014 Introduction Shipping is a vital facilitator of world trade 135 % Increase in world GDP in the last two decades 180 % Increase

More information

International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes

International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes Larry Boorstein, Project Manager, AECOM Prepared for Shifting International Trade Routes, January 29-30, 2015, Tampa, presented by AAPA

More information

THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?

THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered

More information

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 30, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

More information

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization

More information

The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments

The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments 18 th Monetary Policy Workshop at the Berlin School of Economcs and Law, 12 13 October 2017 Overview Position 1: The euro itself

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect

More information

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Post-Bubble Global Trends AAPA Webinar February 18, 2009 Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Takeaways The world economy is circling the drain World is wealthier

More information

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace 2.0 Global oil demand growth 2014-2022 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

More information

U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate

U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate Chart 1 U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate 11 10 9 8 % 7 6 5 4 3 2 14710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147 1990 1991

More information

Maximizing Tourism Marketing Investments A Canadian Perspective

Maximizing Tourism Marketing Investments A Canadian Perspective Maximizing Tourism Marketing Investments A Canadian Perspective Understanding the potential of markets Economics: GDP; Inflation; Unemployment; Employment; Disposable Income; Private Consumption; Consumer

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?

More information

Session 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP)

Session 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP) Session 4. Growth Stylized Facts on Standards of Living across Countries Characterizing Growth over 1 Years: The US Economy Growth Dynamics of the G7 Countries and the OECD Economies Characterizing Growth

More information

De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means?

De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? Presentation to 35 Annual Monetary & Trade Conference Mykyta Vesselovsky, Ph.D. Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada April

More information

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality?

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? 18 th May 2004 Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? Investors have perceived the steel industry negatively Poor returns over the long term, high volatility, relatively small size

More information

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz.

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Car Production Production in thousands 4000 3000 2000 1000 Brazil Mexico 0 2013 2014 2015 Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Mexico s Expanding Middle Class Percent of population

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information