The Material Basis of the Global Economy

Transcription

1 ESEE June 2005, Lisbon The Material Basis of the Global Economy Implications for Sustainable Resource Use Policies in North and South Arno Behrens, Stefan Giljum, Jan Kovanda, Samuel Niza

2 Overview Overview Background: The MOSUS Project Methodology Results Policy Implications

3 Background: The MOSUS Project Is Europe sustainable? Modelling opportunities and limits for restructuring Europe towards sustainability Funded by the 5th Framework Programme of the European Union (sub-programme environment and sustainable development) Endorsed by the Industrial Transformation Project of the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP-IT)

4 Background: The MOSUS Project Modelling material flows with the GINFORS Model GINFORS: multi-country (56 countries/world regions), multi-sectoral (41 sectors) input-output model system, including international trade and energy use MOSUS: extension by material input (and land use) models (in physical units) Sustainability scenarios: implications of EU environmental policy measures on resource extraction and use (Europe and world-wide)

5 Methodology Methodology: Basic Facts 188 country sheets Time period: Categorisation of materials following Handbook for Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounting (EUROSTAT, 2001) Used extraction plus estimation of unused extraction (e.g. overburden)

6 Methodology Material Groups (number of categories) 1. Fossil fuels (6) 2. Metal ores (37) 3. Industrial minerals (41) Construction minerals (9) Industrial and construction minerals (15) 4. Agriculture (139) By-products of agriculture (3) Grazing (1) Forestry (2) Fisheries (3) Other biomass (4)

7 Results Global Used Extraction by Material Category billion tons Fossil Fuels Metals Ind. & Const. Minerals Biomass

8 Results Shares of Global Used Extraction by World Region 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Africa Asia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe

9 Results Domestic Extraction per Capita per World Region tons per capita Africa Asia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe World

10 Results Material Intensity by World Region tons per 1000 US $ (const. 1995) Africa Asia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe World

11 Results Discussion I: Global Resource Use Relative de-coupling, but absolute increase Scale effect dominating structural and technology effects unsustainable development Southern physical growth in the future Changes in production and consumption patterns in particular in rich countries / world regions

12 Results Global Extraction of Metal Ores by Region billion tons Africa As ia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe

13 Results Shares of Global Metal Ore Extraction by Region 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Africa As ia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe

14 Results Physical trade balance of ores (M-X, in 1000 t) Ores US West. Europe Japan Raw materials Zinc Tin -0,5-6 0 Nickel Lead Copper Bauxite Iron Semi-processed Zinc Tin Nickel Lead Copper Aluminium Source: Muradian and Martinez-Alier 2001

15 Results Change of S-N trade flows 1970s-1990s Item % of change in weight % of change in price (US $ 1987) Aluminium Pig iron Iron and steel shapes Nickel Zinc Copper ores Copper alloys Bauxite Tin alloys Lead 9-46 Zinc ores 8-45 Nickel ores Iron ores Lead ores Tin ores Source: Muradian and Martinez-Alier 2001

16 Results Discussion II: Metal Ores Northern decrease in extraction & increasing physical imports of metal ores and products from South Southern specialisation in metal extracting activities (Latin America) environmental distribution Falling prices & rising export volumes negative prospects for economic development

17 Policy Implications Northern Agenda High potentials for economically profitable resource savings Set of key policy instruments: ecological fiscal reform, subsidy reform, green public procurement, etc. Key sectors: energy, transport, industry, agriculture, construction Trade effects of price increases for natural resources

18 Policy Implications Southern Agenda Diversification of economic structures: linking domestic sectors, increasing human skills, reducing negative environmental impacts Horizontal and vertical diversification Environmental policy instruments (e.g. fiscal reform) for poverty reduction Improving policy coherence, in particular between trade and environment policies

19 Policy Implications International Agenda North-South transfer of financial and technology resources Redistribution of financial resources (debt relief, cofinancing of development projects, e.g. with incomes from Northern environmental taxes) Trade reforms: providing market access for Southern products; eliminating tariff distortions, reform of subsidy systems, etc.

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