Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator

Transcription

1 A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC

2 OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION I. Recent Developments and Outlook: GDP and Prices External Sector Monetary Sector Fiscal Sector II. Competitiveness in the Pacific Region III. Factors Impeding Growth in the Pacific Islands IV. Questions/Discussion 2

3 I. COUNTRY GROUPINGS Used in this Study South Asia East Asia Emerging Asia Pacific Islands Bangladesh Brunei Darussalam China Fiji Bhutan Cambodia India FSM Maldives Lao PDR Thailand Kiribati Myanmar Mongolia Malaysia Palau Nepal PNG Indonesia RMI Sri Lanka Timor-Leste Philippines Samoa Korea Solomon Is Taiwan POC Tonga Singapore Vanuatu Hong Kong SAR 3

4 I. Recent Developments and Outlook

5 1. GROWTH AND PRICES Real GDP Growth (year on year % change) average Proj. Proj. South Asia Bangladesh Bhutan Maldives Myanmar 1/ Nepal Sri Lanka East Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Lao P.D.R Mongolia Papua New Guinea Timor-Leste Pacific Islands Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, F.S Palau Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu LISCs Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, APDCORE and WEO databases; and staff estimates. 1/ IMF staff estimates. 5

6 Real GDP Growth (In percent, weighted) South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 6

7 Per Capita GDP, / LISCs Emerging Asia Least Developed Countries Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excluding Brunei, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Palau, and Timor Leste. 7

8 Global Commodity Prices (Index 2002 =100) Crude oil Food Non-fuel Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook. 8

9 Consumer Price Index (Year on year percent change) average Proj. Proj. South Asia Bangladesh Bhutan Maldives Myanmar Nepal Sri Lanka East Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Lao P.D.R Mongolia Papua New Guinea Timor-Leste Pacific Islands Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, F.S Palau Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu LISCs Emerging Asia 1/ Sources: IMF, WEO databases; and Fund staff estimates. 1/ Average period. 9

10 Consumer Prices (Year on year percent change) South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Average period for Emerging Asia. 10

11 2. EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Balance (% of GDP) average Proj. LISCs 1/ South Asia East Asia 1/ PICs Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, WEO databases; and staff estimates. 1/ Exluding Brunei Darussalam. 11

12 Exports of Goods and Services (US$, year on year percent change) average Proj. Proj. LISCs South Asia East Asia Pacific Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, World Economic Out look; Count ry authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 12

13 Export Market Share 1/ (In percent of world exports) South Asia Pacific, RHS East Asia Sources: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Bhutan, Timor Leste, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau

14 Remittances 1/ (In percent of GDP) 10 8 South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; and Fund staff calculations. See IMF (2007) for Pacific Islands definitions. 1/ Excludes Bhutan, Timor Leste, Brunei Darussalam, Singapore, and Taiwan POC. 14

15 Indicators of External Vulnerability, / (In percent of GDP) South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia, excl. China Current account Foreign reserves Public external debt Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Reserves exclude government held resource funds invested offshore in Timor-leste, Brunei, Mongolia and the trust funds in Kiribati and the Compact Pacific Island countries. 15

16 Real Effective Exchange Rates 1/ (Index 2000 = 100, weighted average) 120 (I d i l South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, Information Notice System; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, and Bhutan. 16

17 3. MONETARY SECTOR Banking Sector Assets, / Fiji Samoa Solomon Is Sri Lanka Bhutan Nepal Bangladesh PNG Timor Leste Sources: Country authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 1/ In percent of total financial sector assets. 17

18 Broad Money Growth 1/ (Annual percent change) South Asia Pacific East Asia Emerging Asia Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau. 18

19 Private Sector Credit 1/ (In percent of GDP) South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia, RHS Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; Country authorities; and Fund Staff calculations. 1/ Emerging Asia excludes China and India. LISCs excludes Brunei, Marshall Is., and Palau

20 Private Sector Credit Growth 1/ (Year on year percent change) South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; country authorities; and Fund Staff calculations. 1/ Emerging Asia excludes Vietnam. LISCs excludes Brunei, Timor-Leste, Micronesia, Marshall Is., and Palau. 20

21 Net private Capital Flows (In millions of U.S. dollars) 1,500 1,000 Pacific ex Marshall Is., Micronesia, Palau East Asia ex. Brunei South Asia , Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; and Fund staff calculations. 21

22 4. FISCAL INDICATORS (% of GDP) Central Government Gross Debt Central Government Fiscal balance Proj. Proj. South Asia Bangladesh Bhutan Maldives Myanmar Nepal Sri Lanka East Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Lao P.D.R Mongolia Papua New Guinea Timor-Leste Pacific Island Countries Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, F.S Palau Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu LISCs Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, APDCORE and WEO databases; and Fund staff estimates. 22

23 Total Government Debt (In percent of GDP) South Asia Pacif ic East Asia Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Myamnar, Kiribati, Palau, Korea, Vietnam, and China. 23

24 Government Revenue Excl. Grants (In percent of GDP) South Asia East Asia Pacif ic Emerging Asia Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 24

25 Conclusions of Part I: Main Risks Balance of near-term risks is tilted to the downside: Heavy dependence on a narrow export base, increases vulnerability to external shocks; Demand pressures from higher fiscal spending and rapid credit growth risk stoking inflation; The region faces a number of security and political risks; Institutional and governance constraints could slow progress on structural reforms needed to create a more vibrant, diversified private sector. 25

26 II. Competitiveness in the Pacific Region

27 National Consumer Prices Vs Trading Partner Prices (Index 2000 = 100) Tonga PNG Solomon Islands Vanuatu Fiji Samoa

28 Real Effective Exchange Rates (Index 2000 = 100) Vanuatu Fiji Samoa Tonga PNG 80 Solomon Islands

29 Market Share Index: Export of Goods (Index 1996 = 100) Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Samoa Vanuatu Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Country authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 29

30 Trade Openness 1/ (In percent of GDP) South Asia East Asia Pacif ic Sources: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics and World Economic Outlook ; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Bhutan, Timor Leste, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau. 30

31 Tourism Receipts 1/ (In percent of GDP) South Asia Pacific East Asia Sources: World Tourism Organization; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Brunei, Timor Leste, Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau (1995, 2000), Kiribati ( ), PNG(2005), Myanmar (2005), Sri Lanka (2005), and Vanuatu ( ). 31

32 Australian Tourists to Selected Pacific Islands (In thousands) 50 Samoa Tonga Vanuatu Fiji (RHS) Source: Australian authorities. 32

33 New Zealand Tourist to Selected Pacific Islands (In thousands) Fiji Tonga (RHS) Samoa Vanuatu (RHS) Source: New Zealand authorities. 33

34 Ease of Doing Business Ranks, 2006 Timor-Leste Cambodia Bhutan Micronesia Nepal Sri Lanka Global, median Bangladesh Marshall Islands Em. Asia, median Solomon Islands Palau Kiribati Vanuatu PNG Maldives Tonga Mongolia Samoa Fiji Sources: World Bank, Doing Business Report. Countries are ranked out of 175. A higher rank reflects a more difficult business environment. 34

35 Political Environment, Change in number of : government s governing part ies Fiji 3 4 Papua New Guinea 6 6 Samoa 2 0 Solomon Islands 5 6 Vanuat u 11 5 Source: World Bank, Political Institutions Dat abase. 35

36 Country Policy & Institutional Assessments (Overall, quintile; Solomon Islands Vanuatu Tonga PNG A higher score indicates better policies and institutions Kiribati Samoa Source: World Bank, IDA Country Performance and Ratings. 36

37 Real GDP per capita vs. Business Climate (Average annual growth vs. World Bank Doing Business 2007 ranking) 4 Real GDPper capita 3 Samoa Tonga 2 Fiji 1 Kiribati 0 Vanuatu -1-2 PNG -3 Solomon Islands Ease of Doing Business Ranking (higher= more costly) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; and World Bank, Doing Business. 37

38 Structural Indicators Fiji PNG Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu MIC New Zealand Paved roads (in percent of total roads), Aircraft departures, / 45,669 18,712 10,538 11,512 1,336 1,477 5,010, ,657 Telephone mainlines per 100 residents, Mobile phone subscribers per 100 residents, Cost of three- minute call to US (US$), Internet users (per 1000 people), Electricity costs (US$ per kwh), Improved sanitation facilities (percent of population with access) Improved water facilities (percent of population with access) Sources: Vanuatu authorities, Energy Information Administration; International Telecomunication Union, World Telecomunication Development Report (2006); and World Bank, World Development Indicat ors (2006). 1/ Registered carrier departures for Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. 38

39 Real Lending Rate (Percent per annum) Australia Tonga Fiji Samoa Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Vanuatu Sources: Samoan authorities; and IMF, International Financial Statistics. 39

40 Interest Rate Spread (Lending rate minus deposit rate, in percent) Australia Fiji Vanuatu Solomon Islands Tonga Samoa Papua New Guinea Sources: Samoan authorities; and IMF, International Financial Statistics. 40

41 Conclusions of Part II: Impediments to private sector activity in the Pacific Islands Very open economies with limited sources of comparative advantage outside of tourism. Customary land ownership, prevalent throughout the Pacific, limits the economic use of land. Political instability, weak institutions, and inadequate infrastructure. Business costs are high and the environment to get things done quickly is difficult in some countries. The cost of financing is high, and its availability limited. 41

42 III. Are There Factors Impeding Growth in the Pacific Islands?

43 Paved Roads, 2004 (In percent of total) Solomon Is. Mongolia PNG Bangladesh Philippines Lao PDR Cambodia Vanuatu Tonga Brunei D Samoa Fiji Nepal Indonesia Bhutan Korea Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand Singapore 20 0 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.

44 Adult Literacy, 2004 (In percent of total) 44 Nepal PNG Lao PDR Cambodia Vanuatu Malaysia Indonesia Sri Lanka Singapore Philippines Thailand Brunei Maldives Mongolia Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.

45 Reserve Accumulation 1/ (In billions of U.S. dollars) South Asia East Asia Pacif ic Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Kiribati. 45

46 Government Capital Expenditure 1/ (In percent of GDP) 10 South Asia East Asia Pacif ic Sources: Country authorities; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Excludes Myanmar and Kiribati. 46

47 Public Debt in the Pacific, (In percent of GDP) External Domestic Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Is, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Is, Tonga, Vanuatu, Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Country authorities; and Fund staff calculations.

48 Population Growth, 2006 (In percent) Pacific Emerging Asia South Asia East Asia Least Developed Countries Sources: United Nations; and Fund staff calculations. 48

49 Population Below One Million, 2006 (In millions) Palau Marshall Is. Kiribati Tonga Micronesia Samoa Vanuatu Maldives Brunei Solomon Islands Fiji Sources: United Nations; and Fund staff calculations.

50 Population Above One Million, 2006 (In millions) Timor-Leste Bhutan Mongolia PNG Lao PDR Cambodia Sri Lanka Nepal Myanmar Bangladesh Sources: United Nations; and Fund staff calculations.

51 Human Development Indicators 1/ (Index values, 2004) Brunei Darussalam Emerging Asia Timor-Leste Papua New Guinea Nepal Bangladesh Bhutan Lao PDR Myanmar Myanmar Cambodia Solomon Islands Vanuatu Mongolia Maldives Sri Lanka Fiji Samoa Tonga Source: UNDP. 1/ Index ranges between 0-1, with higher values indicating better levels of human development. Composite indices from UNDP definitions.

52 Conclusions to Part III: Are there Factors Impeding Growth in Pacific Islands? Human development indicators in some Pacific Islands are lagging behind the MDG targets, but overall compare well to Asian developing countries. Population growth and capital expenditure, two key inputs to improved quality of life, are reasonably good in the Pacific as well. SO: the delimiters to private investment, rather than demographic or other core indicators, may be the reason for slower-than-expected growth in the Pacific. 52

53 IV. Questions/Discussion THANK YOU! For more information, please visit: or 53