Katy I.S.D. Demographic Update

Transcription

1 Katy I.S.D. Demographic Update April 19, 2017 Primary vs. Secondary Data Sources Secondary Data: Texas State Data Center, Houston-Galveston Area Council of Governments, and many other entities use extrapolation methods PASA studies the following: Primary Data: Leading Indicators of Employment Housing Projections for Single-Family and Multi-Family Units Ratios of Students per Occupied Home & Apartment Assessment of Regeneration & Decline for Existing Subdivisions 1

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3 Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Highest Growth Districts 2016 PEIMS, Based on Numeric Gain in Students Growth Enrollment Enrollment Rank District Name Numeric Percent 1 Frisco ISD 53,300 55,923 2, % 2 Katy ISD 72,952 75,428 2, % 3 Prosper ISD 8,296 9,998 1, % 4 Conroe ISD 58,239 59,764 1, % 5 Alvin ISD 22,183 23,587 1, % 6 Klein ISD 50,594 51,810 1, % 7 Lamar CISD 29,692 30,829 1, % 8 Comal ISD 21,163 22,240 1, % 9 Denton ISD 27,559 28,628 1, % 10 Leander ISD 37,158 38,226 1, % 11 Northwest ISD 20,976 22,044 1, % 12 Northside ISD 105, ,145 1, % 13 Fort Bend ISD 73,115 74,146 1, % 14 Cypress Fairbanks ISD 113, , % 15 New Caney ISD 13,816 14, % 3

4 Numeric Change In Student Enrollment Total Enrollment Fall (Pre-PEIMS) th Week to Survey, Fall Numeric Change In Student Enrollment Total Enrollment Fall (Pre-PEIMS) th Week to Survey, Fall

5 Historical Growth Trends Sept 2015 % Chg 15-16/ Oct % Chg 16-15/ EE % % PK 1, % 1, % KN 5, % 5, % 1 5, % 5, % 2 5, % 5, % 3 5, % 5, % 4 5, % 5, % 5 5, % 5, % 6 5, % 5, % 7 5, % 5, % 8 5, % 5, % 9 5, % 6, % 10 5, % 5, % 11 5, % 5, % 12 4, % 4, % Total 72, % 75, % Enrollment 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 Past Growth Rates 6.01% 8.07%6.12% 4.11% 4.26%4.04% 3.48% 2.61% 2.92% 6.25% 4.52%3.90% 3.41%

6 Unique Demographic Characteristics Katy I.S.D. Commute time to work: 35 minutes for Katy I.S.D. relative to 34 minutes for Cy-Fair, 23 minutes for Fort Bend, 33.5 for Lamar, and 30 for the Houston Metro Area; Economically Disadvantaged students: 28% in Katy I.S.D. compared to 59% for State; High STAAR passage rate: 88% for Katy I.S.D., relative to 73% for the State; Highly educated population: 46% have bachelor s degree, compared to 42% in Spring Branch I.S.D., 38% in Cy-Fair I.S.D., and 32% in Houston Consolidated Metro Area; High median income: $100,386 for Katy I.S.D., compared to $90,238 for Fort Bend, $60,406 for Spring Branch, $87,555 for Lamar C.I.S.D., and $61,465 for the Metro Area Rank Economically Disadvantaged Student Population: Of 63 Districts with 20,000 or more students District Name Economically Disadvantaged Students Total Enrollment % Disadvantaged FRISCO ISD 5,753 53, % 2 ALLEN ISD 3,100 20, % 3 LEANDER ISD 6,907 37, % 4 NORTHWEST ISD 3,907 20, % 5 KELLER ISD 8,110 34, % 6 PEARLAND ISD 5,592 21, % 7 ROUND ROCK ISD 13,095 47, % 8 CLEAR CREEK ISD 11,360 41, % 9 KATY ISD 20,631 72, % 10 PLANO ISD 15,591 54, % Katy I.S.D. has ranked 8 th or 9 th for at least the last 5 years 6

7 Rank STAAR Results 3 rd -8 th Grade School District (Districts w/>20,000 Students) Enrollment Level II STAAR Passage Rate Level II Level II Level II 1 ALLEN ISD 20, % 92.04% 92.05% 91.77% 2 FRISCO ISD 53, % 91.90% 92.37% 91.92% 3 PEARLAND ISD 21, % 85.83% 85.46% 84.98% 4 PLANO ISD 54, % 86.15% 85.16% 84.56% 5 KATY ISD 72, % 87.21% 85.50% 86.68% 6 ROUND ROCK ISD 47, % 83.96% 83.50% 82.76% 7 CONROE ISD 58, % 84.12% 84.16% 82.46% 8 MCKINNEY ISD 24, % 84.75% 84.05% 82.81% 9 LEANDER ISD 37, % 83.32% 84.45% 84.80% 10 COMAL ISD 21, % 82.27% 84.11% 83.01% Charter and Private School Enrollment Trends KN through 12th Grade Enrollment of Katy ISD Student Population Katy ISD 68, % 70, % 73, % Private Schools 1, % 1, % 1, % Charter Schools 1, % 1, % 2, % TOTAL 71, % 74, % 77, % 7

8 Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment 8

9 Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning Katy I.S.D. Development Density % of KISD Built out 45% Active 8% Undev. planned Undev. no plans Parks, Preserves, Reservoirs 8% 18% 21% 9

10 Parcels 5+ Acres For Sale in Katy I.S.D. Student Growth by Type of Housing Resident Students in 2015 Resident Students in 2016 Added Students 2015 to 2016 # % Percent of Growth Apartments 6,839 7, % 38% Mobile Home Parks 1,250 1, % 0% Subdivisions - Built-out 60,232 60, % 2% Subdivisions - Actively Building 3,489 4,987 1,498 43% 59% Townhomes % 0% 10

11 K.I.S.D. Housing Starts & Closings: 4 th Q 2016 Katy ranks 4 th in housing starts for the 4 th Q behind Fort Bend, Cy- Fair and Lamar - among 61 Houston area school districts K.I.S.D. ranks 3 rd in new home closings for the 4 th Q 2016 For 4Q of 2016, K.I.S.D. had 9% of all Houston area housing starts -- and also 9% of housing inventory for sale New home starts in the 4Q of 2016 were 410, down from 564 in 4Q of 2015 a decline of 37.6% New home starts for the year were down from 2,742 in 2015 to 2,193 starts in 2016 a decline of 25%) The number of vacant developed lots decreased from 4Q 2015 to 4Q 2016 Projected New Housing Occupancies August 2016 to October

12 Projected New Housing Occupancies October 2021 to October 2026 Projected New Housing Occupancies August 2016 to October

13 The housing projections for the annual Demographic Update in Oct., 2016 were conservative because of the continued low oil prices Katy I.S.D. Housing Update Since Oct PASA has continued to follow the most volatile of the subdivisions and masterplanned communities to see if they would pick up the pace potentially adding more homes than PASA had projected in Oct As of April 5, 2017, Cross Creek will be up ~70 more homes (with 310 new occupancies by Oct. 2017) Avalon at Spring Green will be ahead of PASA s projections by 6 more homes (also in the south) Cane Island will be ahead of PASA s projections by 125 new occupancies Enclave at Katy (in the near-in north) will be up ~7 more homes than projected Elyson (in the north) is building ahead of PASA s projections so, all potentially volatile developments are ahead of Oct., 2016 construction schedules Projected New Housing Occupancies October 2026 to Build-Out 13

14 Subdivision Names or Planning Owner(s) Names: Unit: Elyson (Newland Communities) 1, 2, 4C, 4D Northwest Katy (Troy Maxwell) 1, 6B Cane Island 20A, 30, 31B 73A, 73C, 73D, Cross Creek 73E, 73F, 73G, 73H, 73J Ventana Lakes 6B Marcello/Treviso/Camillo 11A Morton Creek Ranch 11B, 23C King Crossing 1, 4A Katy Lakes 4A, 4B "Lin Family & Sweeney Estate" 2, 20A Westfield Village 7B "BMG/Sowell" 7B "Longenbaugh" "Katy Investments" 1, 11B Largest Growth Single-Family Developments Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions): 6,627 8,985 15,612 Total Subdivision Housing Projected: 11,617 15,588 27,205 Apartment LUZ Occupied Occupied 2015 Pre Units to be Occupied Total Park West Green Williamsburg III "Parkside NEC" Heights at Park Row Blackhaw High Rise H Broadstone Energy Park Parkside at Memorial "Duke MF" Haven at Highland Knolls Clay at Grand Parkway 12B Marquis at Katy 22E "Greenhouse Road Apts" 37A "Greenhouse Road West" 37A Lynd Greenhouse 37A Ten Oaks 37B Lenox Trails 42A Crossing at Katy Ranch 42A Bella Terra 42A Multi-Family Developments Partially Occupied, Under Construction, & Other Near- Term 14

15 Apartment LUZ Occupied Occupied 2015 Pre Units to be Occupied Total Vista at Grand Crossing 42B Elan 99 West 42C Haven at Westgreen 44B Streamsong 44B Vue Kingsland 47B Aldeia West 47B Multiple Owners 52A Sorrel 61B Broadstone Falcon Landing (MF/TH) 61E Multiple Owners 67B "A S 134" 68A Grand at La Canterra 69B Katy Pointe 6A Park Lane Fulshear 73I Stratus Cinco Ranch 78A Sovereign at Cinco 78B Palms at Cinco Ranch 78B Cinco Ranch IV 79A Marquis at Cinco Ranch 79F Total 7,460 12,009 Multi-Family Developments Partially Occupied, Under Construction, & Other Near- Term Multi-Family Developments Long-Term Planned Apartment LUZ Total No. of Units "AVEX" 1 1,710 Monterrey Oaks Multiple Owners Bridgeland Katy ISD "Lennar Multifamily" "Milestone Colonial" Multiple Owners "Perrin White" "Westside Venture" Williamsburg I & II "Central Park West" "Town Centre Katy Omega III" Multiple Owners "Katy Boardwalk" Multiple Owners 11C 350 "Clay 628" 12A 720 Apartment LUZ Total No. of Units Mason McAlister Place 13B 240 "MCI Grand Parkway" 13B 320 "Prima Terra" 16A 280 Multiple Owners 16B 250 Multiple Owners 24A 400 "Forresta" 37A 280 "Odonoghue/Bakhr/Leobardo" 4A 220 Multiple Owners 4D 800 "Tsakaris" 50A 430 Multiple Owners 51A 460 "HLB Harris Group" 6C 870 Multiple Owners 79C 160 Multiple Owners 7A 163 Westfield Village 7B 440 "BMG/Sowell" 7B 520 "Mason & Clay" 7B 370 Total: 8,493 15

16 Projected New Housing Occupancies Single- Family Housing Multi- Family Housing TH & Condos Total: Aug 2016 Oct ,862 1, ,669 Oct Oct ,156 1, ,506 Oct Oct ,340 1, ,882 Oct Oct ,613 2, ,928 Oct Oct ,802 2, ,223 Oct Oct ,965 2, ,028 Oct Oct ,934 1, ,806 Oct Oct ,023 1, ,533 Oct Oct ,270 1,179-4,449 Oct Oct , ,336 Aug 2016 Oct ,773 9, ,208 Oct 2022 Oct ,658 7, ,152 Aug 2016 Oct ,431 16, ,360 Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment 16

17 Ratios of Students per Household Single Family Homes Apartments students per home.36 students per unit Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment 17

18 Moderate Growth Scenario Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Enrollment 77,627 79,856 81,908 84,066 86,341 88,647 90,868 93,129 95,537 98,006 % Growth Growth 2,229 2,228 2,053 2,158 2,275 2,306 2,221 2,261 2,408 2,468 Three Scenarios of Growth Enrollment 110, , ,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60, High Growth , ,173 Moderate Growth , ,006 Low Growth , ,417 18

19 Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL 19

20 Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) 20

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22 Population & Survey Analysts Long-Term Enrollment & Housing Outlook Some Texas suburban districts have built-out rapidly like Spring Branch I.S.D. and majority of housing and enrollment growth occurring within a year time frame Enrollment and housing growth in Katy I.S.D. to date has been spread out over a ~26 year period partly due to the large geographic size of K.I.S.D. Conservatively, ~47,175 housing units are projected over the next ten years. This represents 31% of all housing that will exist in the District in 2025 (with ~105,500 units now). K.I.S.D. will continue to build-out after the ten-year time frame of this study - - with ~31,000 housing units projected by PASA from 2025 to build-out. Katy I.S.D. Demographic Update April 19,