Renewable Energy Market Outlook The 5th Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum
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1 Renewable Energy Market Outlook The 5th Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum Ali Izadi December 12, 2017
2 Analysis to help you understand the future of energy Solar Wind Power and Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 1 December 12, 2017
3 Global new clean energy investment $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) $300 billion Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. 2 December 12, 2017
4 Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations GW GW $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn 88GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) $300 billion Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note:Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. 3 December 12, 2017
5 Solar technology is getting cheaper, faster 2016 ($/W) (estimate) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity historic prices (Maycock) Chinese c-si module prices (BNEF) Experience curve at 28% Source: Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4 December 12, 2017
6 BNEF global benchmark capex forecast for fixed-axis utility-scale systems $/W (DC real) $3.24 $1.85 $1.14 $0.86 $0.70 $0.59 $0.51 $0.45 $0.48 $0.29 $0.22 $0.18 $0.15 $ Module Inverter Balance of plant EPC Other System cost Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5 December 12, 2017
7 Turbine price by delivery date million Euro/MW Global (ex. China) Germany (ExTool) Denmark (Extool) US (LBL) China (BNEF) Vestas global Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Data by contract signing date 6 December 12, 2017
8 Onshore wind is getting cheaper as capacity factors rise Onshore wind capacity factor Capacity factor forecast for the U.S 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 299MW 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Note: Averages are capacityweighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER and Vaisala. We assume P90 value in the capacity factor tool. 10% 0% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Notes: Line shows central case, error bars reflect the range between low speed and high speed sites 7 December 12, 2017
9 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m 200m 100m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW 0.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8 December 12, 2017
10 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m 200m 4 MW 100m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW 0.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9 December 12, 2017
11 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m 200m 7 MW 4 MW 100m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW 0.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10 December 12, 2017
12 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m 200m 7 MW 9 MW 4 MW 100m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW 0.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11 December 12, 2017
13 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m MW 200m 7 MW 9 MW 4 MW 100m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW 0.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12 December 12, 2017
14 Offshore wind has surprised us $/MWh (2016 $) Anholt BNEF central view Denmark Borssele I & II Borssele III & IV Danish near-shore Completed auction CfD-R1-East Anglia 1 Horns Rev III Zuid I & II Netherlands CfD-R1-Neart na Goithe Zuid III & IV CfD-Round 2 Noord Gode Wind 3 Germany He Dreiht BRW II, OWP West CfD-Round 3 Krieger's Flak U.K. Planned auction Historical BNEF central LCOE BNEF LCOE range (H2 2016) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Projects by commissioning date. Full dots show the project level LCOEs have been estimated using winning tariffs, tariff duration, indexation (if applicable) and a power price assumption for the merchant tail. 13 December 12, 2017
15 H H H H H H H H H H MWh $/kwh BNEF 2016 li-ion battery price survey results ,600 1, ,200 1,000 Range between minimum and maximum price reported H1 2012: $689/kWh H2 2012: $642/kWh H1 2013: $599/kWh H1 2014: H2 2014: $568/kWh $540/kWh 19% learning rate H2 2015: $350/kWh 2016: $273/kWh Volume-weighted average battery price 0 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,500 1, monthly MWh of sales H of batteries in 2 1 new EVs Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, survey participants. 14 December 12, 2017
16 Clean energy investment in APAC APAC China Billion USD Billion USD Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Japan Korea Billion USD Billion USD Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q December 12, 2017
17 Renewable energy (excluding large hydro) proportion of power generation, Canada UK 25% China 5% 6% 2% Germany 29% 6% 10% 9% Japan US 3% 9% Spain 30% Italy 7% 12% 13% 25% Lowest 12% India Mid Highest No data 6% Brazil 18% South Africa 4% 6% 3% Australia 12% 1% 3% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 16 December 12, 2017
18 Climatescope 2017 Climatescope coverage, countries in Central Asia and Eastern Europe 3 MENA nations 26 Latin American & Caribbean nations 19 Sub-Saharan Africa nations 10 Asian countries, including 25 states/provinces in India & China OECD Since 2012 Since 2014 Since 2016 Since 2017 Non-OECD not in Climatescope 17 December 12, 2017
19 China Brazil Jordan Mexico India South Africa Chile Kenya Uruguay Vietnam Senegal Indonesia Pakistan Honduras Turkey Rwanda Uganda Costa Rica Egypt Argentina Mongolia Sri Lanka Nigeria Nepal Peru Colombia Barbados Guatemala Tanzania Ethiopia Bangladesh Ghana Panama Russia Sierra Leone Lebanon Nicaragua El Salvador Liberia Ukraine Georgia Bolivia Ecuador Cameroon Botswana Jamaica Zambia Cote d'ivoire Dominican Republic Belize Moldova Haiti Zimbabwe Kazakhstan Mozambique Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Kyrgyzstan Myanmar Malawi Bahamas Tajikistan Trinidad & Tobago Congo (Dem. Rep.) Guyana Uzbekistan Venezuela Suriname Paraguay Turkmenistan Climatescope 2017 Ranking and Parameters 3 Enabling Framework Financing & Investment Value Chains Greenhouse-Gas Management Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Climatescope December 12, 2017
20 New Energy Outlook 2017 Global electricity generation mix Utility-scale PV Onshore 1% wind 4% Hydro 17% Nuclear 10% Oil 4% 24,155TWh Gas 23% Coal 37% Small-scale PV 1% Utility-scale PV 12% Onshore wind 15% 38,079TWh Hydro 15% Coal 22% Nuclear 9% Small-scale PV 5% Gas 16% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 19 December 12, 2017
21 New Energy Outlook 2017 Global electricity generation by fuel type (TWh) 18,000 16,000 Fossil fuel 14,000 12,000 Solar & Wind 10,000 8,000 Other Renewables 6,000 Nuclear 4,000 2, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 20 December 12, 2017
22 New Energy Outlook 2017 Investment in new electricity generation capacity by region ($ trillion 2016 real) Europe $1.2tn $1.3tn Rest of the World Americas $1.5tn $1.5tn Middle East, Turkey and Africa Asia Pacific $4.8tn Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 21 December 12, 2017
23 New Energy Outlook 2017 APAC: 47% of investment China & India: 83% of investment in APAC Global investment by region, APAC investment by region, ($ billion real) ($ billion real) APAC $4,828 China $2,823 AMER $1,454 India $1,157 META $1,454 SE Asia $431 Japan $195 RoW $1,264 South Korea $142 Europe $1,185 Australia $79 Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 22 December 12, 2017
24 New Energy Outlook 2017 Renewable penetration ranking by 2040 Country All renewables Country PV and wind Italy 96% Mexico 73% Brazil 96% Iberia 63% Iberia 86% Germany 61% Chile 86% Italy 59% Mexico 82% Chile 55% Canada 79% Australia 55% Germany 74% UK 50% France 65% France 46% UK 63% Brazil 43% Australia 62% India 41% China 55% China 39% India 49% Thailand 39% Thailand 49% SSA 34% Turkey 48% South Korea 32% Philippines 47% United States 31% Japan 42% Japan 30% United States 38% Philippines 30% Malaysia 37% Turkey 28% South Korea 34% MENA 27% Indonesia 31% Canada 24% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 23 December 12, 2017
25 New Energy Outlook 2017 Power sector emissions peak in 2026 but remain far from 2 trajectory Global power sector CO2 emissions trends and Paris Agreement targets (NDC) (MtCO2) Global power sector CO2 emissions trends and the 2 degree pathway (MtCO2) 16,000 14,000 NDC trajectory 16,000 14,000 NEO ,000 NEO ,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 NEO2017-2deg trajectory Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 24 December 12, 2017
26 Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 25 December 12, 2017
27 Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a research firm that helps energy professionals generate opportunities. With a team of experts spread across six continents, BNEF provides independent analysis and insight, enabling decisionmakers to navigate change in an evolving energy economy. BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms, as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal. Coverage. Renewable Energy Power & Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies sales.bnef@bloomberg.net Ali Izadi aizadinajafa@bloomberg.net
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