Managed Lanes: The Fitch Approach. Saavan Gatfield, Senior Director

Transcription

1 Managed Lanes: The Fitch Approach Saavan Gatfield, Senior Director

2 HOT Lanes Getting Hotter Priced Managed Lanes Across the United States As of 4/27/14 Sources: HNTB Corporation; GAO analysis of USDOT, state departments of transportation; and local authorities information 1

3 Policies Matter Annual Toll Revenue and Operating Cost Operating Managed Lanes $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 I-35W Minneapolis, MN I-394 Minneapolis, MN Source: FHWA Managed Lanes Handbook Annual Revenues (Millions) I-25 Denver, CO I-15 San Diego, CA Annual Operating Costs (Millions) Hov 2+ I-10 Houston, TX Hov 3+ I-95 Miami, FL SR-91 Orange County, CA 2

4 Low Average Time Savings Observed I-95 Northbound Travel Time and Tolls (2012) Minutes Saved Minute Saved Typical Price 4 $4 3 $3 2 $2 1 $1 0 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM $0 Source: FDOT 3

5 ML Volume Volatile, Even in Congested Corridor 91 Express Lanes Average Daily Traffic Percentage Change Global ADT General Purpose ADT SR 91 ADT 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Source: OCTA 4

6 Evolution of ML Traffic 95 Express Lanes Northbound Annual ML Traffic by Hour Average Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour (VPLPH) H ,600 1,400 1,200 1, :00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM Source: FDOT 5

7 Change in Toll Rates 95 Express Northbound Annual Typical Toll Rate by Hour Typical Toll Rate $ H 2013 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ :00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM Source: FDOT 6

8 Volume to Capacity and Toll Price Affect Capture Rate 95 Express Lanes (FL) Northbound % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Volume/ GP Capacity Capture Rate Typical Toll/ Mile $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 0% 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM $0.00 Source: FDOT 7

9 Understanding the Project * Strength of service area * Competing facilities? * Connected locations * Radial v circumferential? * One/two directional traffic? * Regional travel patterns * Ingress / egress * Lane barriers What? Why? Where? When? 8

10 Understanding the Project Who? What For? How Often? Where does it fit in the system? Who uses it? Why? When is it busy? 9

11 Understanding the Project National Declining Per-Capita Driving Trend Vehicle-Miles Traveled, U.S. (millions) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Population Growth Critical Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) VMT per capita * 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 * 2012 data based on U.S. Department of Transportation s (U.S. DOT) Traffic Volume Trends report. Previous years based on U.S. DOT Highway Statistics series of reports Source: US Department of Transportation 0 VMT Per Capita 10

12 Understanding the Project Forecast Growth Focused in Few States States with Highest Forecast Population Growth Pop Increase (mm) 2030 Pop (mm) Annual Pop Growth Rate Florida % 3 2 California % 1 3 Texas % 2 4 Arizona % 10 5 North Carolina % 7 6 Georgia % 8 7 Virginia % 12 8 Washington % 14 9 Nevada % Maryland % 16 United States % 2030 Rank Source: United States Census Bureau, Fitch 11

13 Understanding the Project Top 10 MSAs by Employment Growth Forecast Growth Rank MSA Employment (000s) CAGR % 1 Orlando, FL 1,065 1, % 2 Houston, TX 2,788 3, % 3 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 1,226 1, % 4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3,090 3, % 5 Phoenix, AZ 1,813 2, % 6 Denver, CO 1,294 1, % 7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,349 2, % 8 Portland, OR-WA 1,037 1, % 9 Atlanta, GA 2,405 2, % 10 Tampa- St. Petersburg, FL 1,177 1, % Source: Global Insights Note: Data has been sorted to exclude MSAs with total employment less than 1 million

14 Benchmarking & Stress Testing Source: NASA Is Traffic Forecasting Rocket Science? 13

15 Benchmarking & Stress Testing All Models Are Different! Source: NASA Source: NASA 14

16 Benchmarking & Stress Testing Indicative Sensitivities Peak Toll: Opening Year (Average per Mile, 2014$) $0.40 $0.70 Strong $0.30 $0.50 Moderate $0.20 $0.40 Weak Service Area 15

17 Benchmarking & Stress Testing Indicative Sensitivities Revenue CAGR % Strong % Moderate % Weak Service Area 16

18 People in pursuit of answers 17

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