Managed Lanes: The Fitch Approach. Saavan Gatfield, Senior Director

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1 Managed Lanes: The Fitch Approach Saavan Gatfield, Senior Director

2 HOT Lanes Getting Hotter Priced Managed Lanes Across the United States As of 4/27/14 Sources: HNTB Corporation; GAO analysis of USDOT, state departments of transportation; and local authorities information 1

3 Policies Matter Annual Toll Revenue and Operating Cost Operating Managed Lanes $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 I-35W Minneapolis, MN I-394 Minneapolis, MN Source: FHWA Managed Lanes Handbook Annual Revenues (Millions) I-25 Denver, CO I-15 San Diego, CA Annual Operating Costs (Millions) Hov 2+ I-10 Houston, TX Hov 3+ I-95 Miami, FL SR-91 Orange County, CA 2

4 Low Average Time Savings Observed I-95 Northbound Travel Time and Tolls (2012) Minutes Saved Minute Saved Typical Price 4 $4 3 $3 2 $2 1 $1 0 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM $0 Source: FDOT 3

5 ML Volume Volatile, Even in Congested Corridor 91 Express Lanes Average Daily Traffic Percentage Change Global ADT General Purpose ADT SR 91 ADT 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Source: OCTA 4

6 Evolution of ML Traffic 95 Express Lanes Northbound Annual ML Traffic by Hour Average Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour (VPLPH) H ,600 1,400 1,200 1, :00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM Source: FDOT 5

7 Change in Toll Rates 95 Express Northbound Annual Typical Toll Rate by Hour Typical Toll Rate $ H 2013 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ :00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM Source: FDOT 6

8 Volume to Capacity and Toll Price Affect Capture Rate 95 Express Lanes (FL) Northbound % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Volume/ GP Capacity Capture Rate Typical Toll/ Mile $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 0% 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM $0.00 Source: FDOT 7

9 Understanding the Project * Strength of service area * Competing facilities? * Connected locations * Radial v circumferential? * One/two directional traffic? * Regional travel patterns * Ingress / egress * Lane barriers What? Why? Where? When? 8

10 Understanding the Project Who? What For? How Often? Where does it fit in the system? Who uses it? Why? When is it busy? 9

11 Understanding the Project National Declining Per-Capita Driving Trend Vehicle-Miles Traveled, U.S. (millions) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Population Growth Critical Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) VMT per capita * 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 * 2012 data based on U.S. Department of Transportation s (U.S. DOT) Traffic Volume Trends report. Previous years based on U.S. DOT Highway Statistics series of reports Source: US Department of Transportation 0 VMT Per Capita 10

12 Understanding the Project Forecast Growth Focused in Few States States with Highest Forecast Population Growth Pop Increase (mm) 2030 Pop (mm) Annual Pop Growth Rate Florida % 3 2 California % 1 3 Texas % 2 4 Arizona % 10 5 North Carolina % 7 6 Georgia % 8 7 Virginia % 12 8 Washington % 14 9 Nevada % Maryland % 16 United States % 2030 Rank Source: United States Census Bureau, Fitch 11

13 Understanding the Project Top 10 MSAs by Employment Growth Forecast Growth Rank MSA Employment (000s) CAGR % 1 Orlando, FL 1,065 1, % 2 Houston, TX 2,788 3, % 3 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 1,226 1, % 4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3,090 3, % 5 Phoenix, AZ 1,813 2, % 6 Denver, CO 1,294 1, % 7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,349 2, % 8 Portland, OR-WA 1,037 1, % 9 Atlanta, GA 2,405 2, % 10 Tampa- St. Petersburg, FL 1,177 1, % Source: Global Insights Note: Data has been sorted to exclude MSAs with total employment less than 1 million

14 Benchmarking & Stress Testing Source: NASA Is Traffic Forecasting Rocket Science? 13

15 Benchmarking & Stress Testing All Models Are Different! Source: NASA Source: NASA 14

16 Benchmarking & Stress Testing Indicative Sensitivities Peak Toll: Opening Year (Average per Mile, 2014$) $0.40 $0.70 Strong $0.30 $0.50 Moderate $0.20 $0.40 Weak Service Area 15

17 Benchmarking & Stress Testing Indicative Sensitivities Revenue CAGR % Strong % Moderate % Weak Service Area 16

18 People in pursuit of answers 17

19 Disclaimer Fitch Ratings credit ratings rely on factual information received from issuers and other sources. Fitch Ratings cannot ensure that all such information will be accurate and complete. Further, ratings are inherently forward-looking, embody assumptions and predictions that by their nature cannot be verified as facts, and can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating was issued or affirmed. The information in this presentation is provided as is without any representation or warranty. A Fitch Ratings credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security and does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. A Fitch Ratings report is not a substitute for information provided to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with a sale of securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch Ratings. The agency does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS AT 18

20 New York 33 Whitehall Street New York, NY London 30 North Colonnade Canary Wharf London E14 5GN

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