U.S. Property Market Outlook, 2013Q1. Jim Costello, Managing Director CBRE Americas Research Investment Research

Transcription

1 U.S. Property Market Outlook, 2013Q1 Jim Costello, Managing Director CBRE Americas Research Investment Research

2 CBRE Page 2 Outlook for the Real Side of the Economy

3 Operationally, what do Research Teams do? Strategy Provide input to fund strategies, ensuring that they are consistent with house view, providing input into capital allocation decisions Business Development Support new and existing product with business cases and identification of opportunities. Client Relations / Marketing Strengthen relationships with clients Investment Analysis Input to the decision on major acquisitions, developments and asset reviews and ensure assumptions are consistent with the house view Information Management Maintain libraries and coordinate databases of information for use by the business. CBRE Page 3

4 The Future of Manufacturing Source: Wikipedia CBRE Page 4

5 National Economic Summary 2004 to to 2017 Employment G rowth Retail Sales G rowth Inflation Ten Year Treasury Unemployment Rate GDP Growth Sources: Moody s Analytics, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 5

6 U.S. Back to Peak Jobs in 2014: A Year Later in the Midwest Employment Index, 1997q1 = Forecast Chicago Midwest U.S. Sources: Moody s Analytics, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 6

7 Chicago Losing Ground as a Manufacturing Hub % Share of Jobs in Manufacturing Forecast Chicago Midwest U.S. Overall Sources: Moody s Analytics, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 7

8 Nationally, Manufacturing Jobs at the Peak Jobs x 1 million Industrial Production 2007 = Manufacturing Jobs Industrial Production Sources: Moody s Analytics, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 8

9 Greatest Job Momentum by Industry Professional and business services, Construction, Health Care, and Education saw the greatest job growth relative to their share of total jobs. Construction and Education added the greatest number of jobs relative to their low share of the current total. Retail Trade and Government jobs were the worst performers of the month. Sources: BLS, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 9

10 Lower Unemployment Rate is Not Under Best Circumstances The unemployment rate moved down a tick to 7.6% in March. This is not entirely good news nearly 500,000 people fell out of the labor force last month. The labor force participation rate dropped.2% to 63.3%, the lowest level since Sources: BLS, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 10

11 CBRE Page 11 The Financial Side of the of the Economy

12 Baseline Outlook: Everything Works out O.K. % Rate Forecast Ten Year Treasury Inflation Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, Moody s Analytics CBRE Page 12

13 Asset Values are Climbing Appraised Values, 2005 q1 = Apartment Industrial Office Retail Source: NCREIF 2013q1 CBRE Page 13

14 Composition of Value Growth in Apartments Apartment Year over Year Change in Value Income Contribution Cap Rate Contribution Value Growth Source: NCREIF 2013q1, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 14

15 Composition of Value Growth in Offices Office Year over Year Change in Value Income Contribution Cap Rate Contribution Value Growth Source: NCREIF 2013q1, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 15

16 Commercial Real Estate Is Still A Good Relative Value Cap Rate Spreads Remain Wide bps 57 bps bps Q2 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q4 10-Year UST Rate NCREIF Transaction Cap Rate Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Rate Source: Moody s Economy.com, NCREIF, CBRE Research CBRE Page 16

17 Cap Rate Spreads Tend to Compress During Periods of Rising Rates Basis Point Change During Periods of Rising Treasury Rates Mar '78 to Sep '83 Jun '83 to Jun '84 Mar '87 to Mar '89 Dec '93 to Dec '94 Dec '98 to Mar '00 Mar '04 to Jun '06 10-Year UST Moody's Baa Corporate Bond NCREIF Appraisal Cap Rate Source: Moody s Economy.com, NCREIF, CBRE Research CBRE Page 17

18 CBRE Page 18 Property Market Trends

19 Vacancy and Availability Rates Q Q Past Cyclic High Natural Rate Year Back to "Natural Rate" Office Vacancy Rate / to Industrial Availability Rate / to Retail Availability Rate / to Multi-Housing Vacancy Rate / to Full Service Hotels* Vacancy Rate / to *Forecast values of 2012Q4, Hotels report an occupancy rate normally, this figure is the inverse for purposes of comparison to other asset classes Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 19 19

20 CBRE Page 20 Office

21 Significant Excess Capacity Remains in Office Market Occupied Square Feet per Worker Inflation Adjusted TW Rent Index Forecast Occupied sqft per Worker Inflation Adjusted Rents Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 21

22 The Demand for Suburbs is not what it was Net Absorption as % of Stock 8 Forecast Downtown Suburban Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 22

23 Office Performance Suggests Limited Supply Ahead Office Completions & Net Absorption, SF x 1MM Vacancy Rate, % Forecast Completions Net Absorption Vacancy Rate 4 Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 23

24 CBRE Page 24 Industrial

25 Skewed Demand for Warehouse Subtypes Warehouse Net Absorption, sqft x 1 million * Modern Assets 450k sqft + Rest of the Warehouse Market Warehouse Net Absorption *2013 Year to Date Sources: CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 25

26 Industrial Availability Varies by Size Range Availability Rate, % National Average K- 49K 50K- 99K 100K- 199K 200K- 399K 400K+ Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 26

27 Industrial Supply Rising to meet Demand Net Absoption and Construction x 1 million Availability Rate, % Forecast Construction Net Absorption Availability Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 27

28 CBRE Page 28 Retail

29 E-Commerce Taking a Bite out of Local Sales Year Over Year Growth 40% E-Commerce Share of Core Sales 8% 35% 7% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Yr/Yr Growth in E-Commerce Yr/Yr Growth in Core Share of Core Sources: Bureau of the Census, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 29

30 Retailers are Shrinking their Footprints Average Store Square Feet (x 1,000) Best Buy Lowe's Office Depot Target Wal- Mart Sources: CBRE-EA/FW Dodge Pipeline, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 30

31 Perversely, Retail Construction Grows Quickly Net Absoption and Construction x 1 million Availability Rate, % Forecast Construction Net Absorption Availability Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 31

32 CBRE Page 32 Multi-Housing

33 Home Ownership Rate falls to early 1990s Levels US Homeownership Rate, % Households x 1 million Homeownership Rate % (right) Rental Households Sources: Bureau of the Census, CBRE Research Calculations CBRE Page 33

34 The Next 7 Years Are Not Like the Last 2 Average annual income growth, % Atlanta Boston San Francisco Los Angeles Washington, DC Phoenix Last 15 years Last 2 years Next 7 years New York Average Chicago Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 34

35 Multi-Housing Vacancy Stable Moving Forward Net Absoption and Construction, units x 1,000 Vacancy Rate, % Forecast Construction Net Absorption Availability Sources: CBRE-EA 2013Q1 CBRE Page 35

36 Jim Costello Jim Costello joined CBRE in 1995 with economic and real estate research experience developed through work with government agencies in the Chicago area. Jim manages the Investment Strategy and Consulting group within the America s Research team. This group delivers investment opinions and insights to institutional investors with the aim of helping them develop a house view. Mr. Costello holds a BA in Political Science from the University of Chicago and a MA in Economics. CBRE Page 36

37 Commercial Real Estate Services, Worldwide Thank You CBRE Global Research and Consulting 260 Franklin Street, Suite 400 Boston, MA Tel: Fax: