Real Time Early Warning Indicators for Costly Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles: A Role for Global Liquidity

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Real Time Early Warning Indicators for Costly Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles: A Role for Global Liquidity"

Transcription

1 Indicators Asset Price : A Role for Global Liquidity Lucia Alessi European Central Bank Carsten Detken Milan, 24 June 2010

2 The need for Models The set up of an System is one of the key tasks of the European Systemic Risk Board With the aim of identifying threats to financial stability in a timely manner, and allow for the adoption of targeted macro-prudential regulatory measures Implications of financial stability for price stability in the medium to long run EWMs are necessary input for leaning against the wind New generation of EWMs

3 Literature and contributions The target The literature on Indicators has typically dealt with currency and banking crises (e.g. Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999, Borio et al. 2002, 2004, ) Alternative ways for identifying systemic risks have recently been proposed Application to predict costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles Real vs financial variables Global vs domestic financial variables Money vs credit Prediction of mid-2000s asset price boom wave

4 Literature and contributions The methodology Signalling approach: a warning signal is issued when some indicator variable exceeds some threshold, e.g. a particular percentile of its own distribution Pseudo Real Time Ranking according to policy maker loss function, not noise to signal ratio, and focus on usefulness

5 Country-specific boom identification Aggregate Asset Price Index Boom quarter if at least 3 consecutive quarters where QAAPR i > recursive HP trend i recursive stdev i QAAPR = Quarterly Aggregate Asset Price Index weighted average of commercial property, residential property and equity prices

6 Country-specific boom identification Recursive detrending Boom quarter if at least 3 consecutive quarters where QAAPR i > recursive HP trend i recursive stdev i Asset Prices

7 Country-specific boom identification Recursive detrending Boom quarter if at least 3 consecutive quarters where QAAPR i > recursive HP trend i recursive stdev i Asset Prices Ex-Post Trend

8 Country-specific boom identification Recursive detrending Boom quarter if at least 3 consecutive quarters where QAAPR i > recursive HP trend i recursive stdev i Asset Prices Ex-Post Trend Rec. Trend

9 Country-specific boom identification Recursive detrending Boom quarter if at least 3 consecutive quarters where QAAPR i > recursive HP trend i recursive stdev i Asset Prices Ex-Post Trend Rec. Trend

10 Country-specific boom identification Recursive detrending Boom quarter if at least 3 consecutive quarters where QAAPR i > recursive HP trend i recursive stdev i Asset Prices Ex-Post Trend Rec. Trend

11 Country-specific boom identification Identified booms Boom quarter if at least 3 consecutive quarters where QAAPR i > recursive HP trend i recursive stdev i 60 booms identified for 18 countries from 1970 robust classification

12 Country-specific boom identification High cost vs Low cost booms High Cost Booms if real GDP growth 1 pp p.a. lower than potential growth on average over 3 post boom years 45 classifiable booms: 29 are HC 16 are LC (control group) costly banking crises (FI 91-94, IT 90-95, SE 91-94) follow HC booms

13 Boom/bust cycles 3 waves: mid-late 80s, 90s, 00s Number of Countries with Aggregate Asset Price Booms 0 High Cost Booms 1970 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Low Cost or Unclassified Booms

14 18 variables for 18 countries Real: GDP, private consumption, total investment, housing investment, consumer prices Financial: equity, private housing, aggregate asset prices (including also commercial housing), long rates, short rates, term spread, M1, M3, private credit, domestic credit, real effective exchange rates, global M1, global M3, global private credit, global domestic credit, global short rates Sample is 1970:Q1 to 2007:Q4 Countries are AU, BE, CA, CH, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, GB, IE, IT, JP, NL, NO, NZ, SE, US

15 Indicators 89 indicators (Up to) 6 transformations per variable: ratios to GDP annual growth rates 6 quarters cumulated growth rates recursively HP detrended (constant and variable history) ratios to GDP recursively HP detrended (constant and variable history) cumulated shocks from recursive VAR in growth rates (for money and credit variables)

16 Global private credit gap and optimal threshold period Housing/ Savings and Loans dot.com Credit Q1 1983Q1 1987Q1 1991Q1 1995Q1 1999Q1 2003Q1 2007Q1

17 Signalling approach Policy Maker s Loss Function Costly Boom No Costly Boom Signal A B No signal C D L = θ C A + C }{{} booms not called +(1 θ) B } B {{ + D } false alarms θ= policy maker s relative aversion to missing a call versus receiving a false alarm Usefulness = min[θ; 1 θ] L

18 The trade-off between missed crises and false alarms Optimal thresholds for the Global M1 Gap Frequency Type I errors (missing crises) Type II errors (false alarms)

19 Optimal threshold Time-varying threshold Given θ, we optimize threshold quantile (by means of grid search in [0.05; 0.95], step 0.05) for each indicator with respect to loss function (for same θ) Three levels of aggregation 18 individual countries average over all countries GDP weighted average over 8 EA countries

20 Joint indicators A signal is issued when both indicators breach their respective thresholds Global PC and Global M1 plus 16 best individual indicators in 2 dimensional grid search reduce false alarms

21 (Pseudo) Real Time availability at each point in time is (roughly) taken into account by means of using appropriately lagged variables (usually -1 quarter, often more for housing and aggregate asset prices, up to -4). We do not use a true real time dataset (with original vintages of data) The distribution of the indicators and thus the actual threshold for issuing a signal changes at each point in time. What is not real time is the optimal quantile, which is derived using all booms for which data availability allowed a classification as high or low cost

22 (Pseudo) Real Time availability at each point in time is (roughly) taken into account by means of using appropriately lagged variables (usually -1 quarter, often more for housing and aggregate asset prices, up to -4). We do not use a true real time dataset (with original vintages of data) The distribution of the indicators and thus the actual threshold for issuing a signal changes at each point in time. What is not real time is the optimal quantile, which is derived using all booms for which data availability allowed a classification as high or low cost

23 Best 3 indicators Average over all countries θ = 0.2 θ = 0.3 usefulness good false usefulness good false calls alarms calls alarms GlobM1-detr GlobM1-detr Shock-GlobalM GlobPC-detr GlobM1-HP QEPR-detr θ = 0.4 θ = 0.5 usefulness good false usefulness good false calls alarms calls alarms GlobPC-HP GlobPC-HP GlobPC-detr INV-cum GlobM1-detr QAAPR-yoy θ = 0.6 θ = 0.8 usefulness good false usefulness good false calls alarms calls alarms GlobPC-HP GDPR-HP GDPR-HP QAAPR-cum QAAPR-cum GlobSR-HP

24 Relative usefulness of money and credit Average results over all countries Usefulness (%) Global Credit/GDP Global M1/GDP θ

25 Joint indicators Weighted-average over EA countries usefulness % booms good false ants cond. diff. alt called calls alarms prob. prob. GlobPC-detr LRR-HP GlobPC-detr QAAPR-HP GlobPC-detr QRPR-HP GlobPC-detr θ = 0.4

26 Prediction of the best indicators GlobPC-HP GlobM1-detr Optimal Number of Optimal Number of threshold signals threshold signals 70 (all) 7 90 (all) 0 85 (EA) 3 95 (EA) 0 If last wave included in the evaluation, GlobPC best indicator Signals should be only one of the inputs for decision makers

27 Receiving early warning signals for costly asset price booms in real time is possible (ants in the 0.20s feasible). If central bankers preferences are relatively balanced, monitoring credit and money provides value added (weighted sum of errors reduced p.p. for best indicators). Aggregate asset price cycles are correlated across countries (standard) global financial variables are useful for leaning against the wind type of policies.

28 Outlook Focus on the EU and on equity and housing markets separately for the ESRB Investigate possible differences between market vs bank oriented countries Improve real time concept Test (other) balance sheet items of (other) financial intermediaries Extract financial factors using dynamic factor models Use model selection algorithms Use regime switching models

29 Thank you

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911

More information

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8%

More information

The structure of the euro area recovery

The structure of the euro area recovery The structure of the euro area recovery Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist JPMorgan Investor Seminar, IMF Annual Meetings Washington, October 2017 The euro area: a systemic player in global trade Trade openness

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group Alternative Measures of Economic Activity Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group High School Fed Challenge Student Orientation: February 1 and 2, 217 Outline Alternative indicators: data

More information

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott www.greatdepressionsbook.com Cole and Ohanian, The Great Depression in the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective,

More information

Export competitiveness factors in the Eurozone countries: the Italian case

Export competitiveness factors in the Eurozone countries: the Italian case Export competitiveness factors in the Eurozone countries: the Italian case CompNet Workshop Rome, 13-14 th March 2014 Cristina Pensa and Matteo Pignatti Confindustria Research Department 1 / 15 Motivation

More information

Commodity Endowment Funds

Commodity Endowment Funds Commodity Endowment Funds Moscow March 9-10 Roberts L. Grava Jennifer Johnson-Calari World Bank rgrava@worldbank.org jjohnsoncalari@worldbank.org Challenges of managing commodity revenues Macro issues

More information

The Sustainability of Public Finances in Belgium: Regional, Federal and EU Perspectives

The Sustainability of Public Finances in Belgium: Regional, Federal and EU Perspectives The Sustainability of Public Finances in Belgium: Regional, Federal and EU Perspectives Per Eckefeldt European Commission BEL-DEBT Project CEPS, Brussels, 24 February 2014 The views expressed herein are

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and

More information

An early warning system to predict house price bubbles

An early warning system to predict house price bubbles An early warning system to predict house price bubbles Christian Dreger, Konstantin Kholodilin DIW Berlin Why is the topic relevant? Bubbles in housing prices can impede the real economic evolution Prices

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

Demographic change, long-run housing demand and the related challenges for the Irish banking sector

Demographic change, long-run housing demand and the related challenges for the Irish banking sector Demographic change, long-run housing demand and the related challenges for the Irish banking sector December 5 th, 2016 esri.ie David Duffy, Daniel Foley, Kieran McQuinn and Niall McInerney Outline: Addresses

More information

Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union. Roma, Rapporto Europa 2015

Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union. Roma, Rapporto Europa 2015 Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union Rapporto Europa 2015 Roma, 9.7.2015 1 Table of Content I. The political threat Why European monetary union? II. Europe

More information

Bank Profitability and Macroeconomic Factors

Bank Profitability and Macroeconomic Factors Bank Profitability and Macroeconomic Factors Ricardo Martinho Banco de Portugal João Gouveia de Oliveira Banco de Portugal & Nova SBE Vitor Oliveira Banco de Portugal 17 October 2017 Lisbon Conference

More information

Business Cycles. Chris Edmond NYU Stern. Spring 2007

Business Cycles. Chris Edmond NYU Stern. Spring 2007 Business Cycles Chris Edmond NYU Stern Spring 2007 1 Overview Business cycle properties GDP does not grow smoothly: booms and recessions categorize other variables relative to GDP look at correlation,

More information

Rossana Merola ILO, Research Department

Rossana Merola ILO, Research Department Raising tax revenues without harming equity and employment Rossana Merola ILO, Research Department G-24 Special Workshop on Growth and Reducing Inequality Geneva, 5 th - 6 th September 2017 The views expressed

More information

Macroeconomics I 22104, Fall Isaac Baley. Introduction

Macroeconomics I 22104, Fall Isaac Baley. Introduction Macroeconomics I 22104, Fall 2017 Isaac Baley Introduction Introduction 1. Key issues in Macroeconomics Economic growth and development Business cycle fluctuations Policy interventions 2. This course Objectives

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

Macroeconomic Imbalances in

Macroeconomic Imbalances in Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area Jürgen von Hagen Rome, 21 May 2011 Europe: Growing imbalances within, balanced without 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 10 Figure 1A: Current Account Balances IE EL FR FI IT SE

More information

The new normal. Mortgage holders are also taking advantage of low interest rates to pay down the principal with P&I loans sitting at 81%.

The new normal. Mortgage holders are also taking advantage of low interest rates to pay down the principal with P&I loans sitting at 81%. 19 July 2018 The new normal Today s quarterly AFG Mortgage Index figures (ASX:AFG) show it is business as usual as a vibrant mortgage broking industry delivering choice and competition to the market continues

More information

Relevance of Questions from past Level III Essay Exams

Relevance of Questions from past Level III Essay Exams This document attempts to identify questions from past Level III essay exams which are still relevant in 2018. There is no guarantee that the information presented here is 100% accurate. If you have any

More information

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011 Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005

More information

Consumer behaviour and the welfare eects of gambling in

Consumer behaviour and the welfare eects of gambling in Consumer behaviour and the welfare eects of gambling in Finland Preliminary results University of Turku September 16, 2016 1 Introduction Gambling as utility creating activity Problem gambling Gambling

More information

By making use of SAFRIM (South African Inter-Industry Macro-Economic Model) By Jeaunes Viljoen, Conningarth Economists, 1

By making use of SAFRIM (South African Inter-Industry Macro-Economic Model) By Jeaunes Viljoen, Conningarth Economists, 1 By making use of SAFRIM (South African Inter-Industry Macro-Economic Model) By Jeaunes Viljoen, Conningarth Economists, South Africa 10/13/2011 1 1960: The economy experienced high growth rates mining

More information

Latin American Capital Markets:

Latin American Capital Markets: Latin American Capital Markets: Stylized Facts, Recent Developments, and Issues FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK October 18, 2007 Augusto de la Torre The World Bank Structure of presentation Medium-term

More information

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Peterson Institute for International Economics 9 th October 2014 Washington DC The Shifts and the

More information

Europe June Craig Menear. Chairman, CEO & President. Diane Dayhoff. Vice President, Investor Relations

Europe June Craig Menear. Chairman, CEO & President. Diane Dayhoff. Vice President, Investor Relations Europe June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measurements Certain statements contained in today

More information

France : Economic developments and reforms, where are we heading?

France : Economic developments and reforms, where are we heading? France : Economic developments and reforms, where are we heading? The Economic Club of New York : 18 April 2018 François VILLEROY de GALHAU, Governor of the Banque de France 1 WHERE ARE WE STARTING FROM?

More information

Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition

Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition May 7 and 8, 2013 İstanbul, Turkey Outline 1 The Financial System 2 Weak Growth 3 4 5 Unprecedented

More information

The Euro Area: A Reality Check

The Euro Area: A Reality Check Fletcher School, Tufts University The Euro Area: A Reality Check Prof. George Alogoskoufis Monetary Cooperation in Europe Four sub-periods in the evolution of monetary cooperation in the European Union.

More information

Eurostatistics DATA FOR SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 04/2018. Statistical

Eurostatistics DATA FOR SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 04/2018. Statistical Eurostatistics DATA FOR SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC ANALYSIS /8 Statistical books Eurostatistics DATA FOR SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC ANALYSIS /8 Manuscript completed in April 8 Neither the European Commission nor any

More information

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade

More information

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies

More information

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and

More information

Effects of Common Economic Space Creation

Effects of Common Economic Space Creation Effects of Common Economic Space Creation Институт Institute of народнохозяйственного Economic Forecasting прогнозирования Florence September, 2012 20 years of independent economic development 1990 1991

More information

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction

More information

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully

More information

Market Update. Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Market Update. Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. Market Update The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or

More information

The Art and Science of Debt Sustainability Analysis Ugo Panizza

The Art and Science of Debt Sustainability Analysis Ugo Panizza The Art and Science of Debt Sustainability Analysis Ugo Panizza Pictet Chair in Finance and Development The Graduate Institute & CEPR Trade and Development Board Geneva, September 2016 d = i g d ps DSA:

More information

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute

More information

A Financial Systems Resilience Index for South Africa: Joining the Twin Peaks

A Financial Systems Resilience Index for South Africa: Joining the Twin Peaks A Financial Systems Resilience Index for South Africa: Joining the Twin Peaks Professor Christine Oughton SOAS University of London co12@soas.ac.uk KEY ISSUES FOR EFFECTIVE MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICYMAKING

More information

Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth?

Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth? Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth? Kan Chen Capital stock, labor, and productivity do not show a significant increase following the recent fiscal stimulus According to our

More information

The role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics in energy futures prices: A Discrete Wavelet Transformation

The role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics in energy futures prices: A Discrete Wavelet Transformation The role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics in energy futures prices: A Discrete Wavelet Transformation 36th USAEE CONFERENCE / Washington DC Sana BEN KEBAIER 1 1 PhD Student Paris Dauphine

More information

Domestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure

Domestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure Domestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure Setting the scene: Infrastructure patterns in emerging markets Christian Daude and Ángel Melguizo Americas Desk OECD Development Centre Development Finance

More information

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management) The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas

More information

Business Cycle Upswing Impact on the Semiconductor Outlook

Business Cycle Upswing Impact on the Semiconductor Outlook Business Cycle Upswing Impact on the Semiconductor Outlook Surface Preparation and Cleaning Conference (SPCC) April 11, 2018 Chief Economist, Hilltop Economics, LLC duncan.meldrum@hilltopeconomics.com

More information

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District

More information

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight

More information

The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008

The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008 The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008 No Debate About Recession (1) So Why Hasn t the Recession been Officially Declared?

More information

Economic Transformation and Recovery in Hong Kong and Singapore

Economic Transformation and Recovery in Hong Kong and Singapore School of Economics and Finance, The University of Hong Kong Presentation given at the followings : - Zonta Club 1999 Accountancy Conference, Vocational Training Council on October 8, 1999 The Society

More information

Main Outlook update results and drivers Wildcards and Emerging Issues

Main Outlook update results and drivers Wildcards and Emerging Issues The outlook for agricultural markets in the next decade: focus on price variability Jacinto Fabiosa Co-Director, FAPRI (515) 294-6183 jfabiosa@iastate.edu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

More information

More information at Global and Chinese Whey Protein Ingredients Industry, 2016 Market Research Report

More information at   Global and Chinese Whey Protein Ingredients Industry, 2016 Market Research Report Report Information More information at https://www.htfmarketreport.com/reports/112584 Global and Chinese Whey Protein Ingredients Industry, 2016 Market Research Report Report Code: HTF112584 Pages: 150

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Department Vol. XVIl, No.3 March 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02 Table

More information

Labor Markets. Chris Edmond NYU Stern. Spring 2007

Labor Markets. Chris Edmond NYU Stern. Spring 2007 Labor Markets Chris Edmond NYU Stern Spring 2007 1 Today Labor market indicators employment, unemployment, participation Labor supply and demand Cross-country comparisons of labor market outcomes Labor

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.9 September 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.11 November 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?

More information

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking

More information

The Future World of Enterprise Finance

The Future World of Enterprise Finance The Future World of Enterprise Finance Hermann Hauser London 13th October 2015 State of the Market Positives IPOs are back and delivering visibility and returns to VC investors This pushes up M&A exit

More information

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible

More information

Outlook for airline markets and industry performance

Outlook for airline markets and industry performance Outlook for airline markets and industry performance June 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist International Air Transport Association % change over previous year Confidence index. 50 = no change The already

More information

China at a glance 2011

China at a glance 2011 China at a glance 2011 GDP PPP Growth rate Per capita Value US$11.29 trillion 9.2% US$8,400 Ranking 3 7 119 Labor force Imports Exports Value 816.2 million US$1.74 trillion US$1.90 trillion Ranking 1 3

More information

GLOBAL IMBALANCES: PRE- AND POST-CRISIS. GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI International Monetary Fund Research Department

GLOBAL IMBALANCES: PRE- AND POST-CRISIS. GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI International Monetary Fund Research Department GLOBAL IMBALANCES: PRE- AND POST-CRISIS GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI International Monetary Fund Research Department The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the IMF or its

More information

YOUR GUIDE TO HOW WE RISK RATE OUR FUNDS

YOUR GUIDE TO HOW WE RISK RATE OUR FUNDS For Athora Ireland customers YOUR GUIDE TO HOW WE RISK RATE OUR FUNDS We re introducing a new approach to how we risk rate funds. The use of our new risk rating methodology in all our funds will begin

More information

CHANGEOVER OF THE QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS IMPACT ASSESSMENT. Executive Summary TO ESA 2010 AND GUIDELINE ECB/2013/24:

CHANGEOVER OF THE QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS IMPACT ASSESSMENT. Executive Summary TO ESA 2010 AND GUIDELINE ECB/2013/24: WORKING GROUP ON FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS ECB-UNRESTRICTED 6 OCTOBER 2015 CHANGEOVER OF THE QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS TO ESA 2010 AND GUIDELINE ECB/2013/24: IMPACT ASSESSMENT Executive Summary This report

More information

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group

Post-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Post-Bubble Global Trends AAPA Webinar February 18, 2009 Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Takeaways The world economy is circling the drain World is wealthier

More information

Poland: Europe s economic outperformer. Piotr Bujak Chief Economist at Nordea Bank Polska PKO Bank Polski Group. Copenhagen, 29 April 2014

Poland: Europe s economic outperformer. Piotr Bujak Chief Economist at Nordea Bank Polska PKO Bank Polski Group. Copenhagen, 29 April 2014 Poland: Europe s economic outperformer Piotr Bujak Chief Economist at Nordea Bank Polska PKO Bank Polski Group Copenhagen, 29 April 2014 Poland crisis-proof economic front-runner 300 250 200 % Cumulated

More information

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 30, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

More information

Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios

Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios The 12 th AIM International Workshop William Wills ww@ufrj.br Tsukuba, Japan 19-21, February 2007 CCAP (Center for Clean Air Policy): Dialogue on Future International

More information

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East Italy. Emanuela Salerno, Mediobanca Research Department Udine, 17 May 2011

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East Italy. Emanuela Salerno, Mediobanca Research Department Udine, 17 May 2011 Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East Italy 2011 Emanuela Salerno, Mediobanca Research Department Udine, 17 May 2011 The region Section 1 2 In 2008 The region Section 1 1,515 medium-sized companies

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

The Maturity of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area

The Maturity of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area The Maturity of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area Roel Beetsma (UvA & European Fiscal Board) Massimo Giuliodori (UvA & Tinbergen Institute) Jesper Hanson (IMF & UvA) Frank de Jong (Tilburg University)

More information

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)

More information

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality?

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? 18 th May 2004 Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? Investors have perceived the steel industry negatively Poor returns over the long term, high volatility, relatively small size

More information

ROAD SAFETY: Towards a European Road Safety Area: Policy orientations on road safety

ROAD SAFETY: Towards a European Road Safety Area: Policy orientations on road safety ROAD SAFETY: Towards a European Road Safety Area: Policy orientations on road safety TWO MAIN POLICY PAPERS WHITE PAPER 2011: Towards a zero-vision on road safety POLICY ORIENTATIONS ON ROAD SAFETY 2011-2020

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

COMMENTS ON THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY

COMMENTS ON THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT, REPUBLIC OF TURKEY COMMENTS ON THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY Umut GÜR Head of Department of Industry 10 May 2013 Panel on Industrial Policies, TEPAV, Ankara 1 1923

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect

More information

Estimating the Probability of Winning an NFL Game Using Random Forests

Estimating the Probability of Winning an NFL Game Using Random Forests Estimating the Probability of Winning an NFL Game Using Random Forests Dale Zimmerman February 17, 2017 2 Brian Burke s NFL win probability metric May be found at www.advancednflstats.com, but the site

More information

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)

More information

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government

More information

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Michael J. Swanson Ph.D. Agricultural Economist January 2018 2018 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use. The U.S. Ag Sector renormalizes!

More information

THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?

THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered

More information

Trends and Cycles in China s Macroeconomy: A Multivariate Approach 1

Trends and Cycles in China s Macroeconomy: A Multivariate Approach 1 Trends and Cycles in China s Macroeconomy: A Multivariate Approach 1 Chun Chang a Daniel F. Waggoner b Tao Zha c Mei Zhu d a SAIF, Shanghai Jiao Tong University b Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta c FRB

More information

The Great Economic Reset

The Great Economic Reset The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory

More information

2016 1H Results Presentation. Milan, 28 th July 2016

2016 1H Results Presentation. Milan, 28 th July 2016 2016 1H Results Presentation Milan, 28 th July 2016 Broadcasting & Advertising ITALY 1H 2016 Macro-economic indicators GDP & HH EXPENDITURE y.o.y growth rate, Source: ISTAT GOOD & SERVICE CONSUMPTION y.o.y

More information

Further Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market

Further Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market Further Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market Haizhou Huang January 7, 2016 China economy and capital market: Finding new normal 1 Macro: We expect China GDP to grow 6.9% in 2015 and 6.8% in

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and

More information

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business 10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent

More information

Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish?

Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish? Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish? Robert E. Hall Hoover Institution and Department of Economics Stanford University Keynote Address Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

More information

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla Agricultural Trade Policy in the U.S. Can reform advance domestic policy objectives and sustainable development?

More information

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS

More information

2014 Economic Indicators, Trends & Observations. 51 South Main Street Janesville, WI P F RockCountyAlliance.

2014 Economic Indicators, Trends & Observations. 51 South Main Street Janesville, WI P F RockCountyAlliance. 2014 Economic Indicators, Trends & Observations 51 South Main Street Janesville, WI 53545 P.608.757.5598 F.608.757.5586 RockCountyAlliance.com Indicators, Trends & Observations National Level State of

More information

Hotel Performance and Outlook

Hotel Performance and Outlook Hotel Performance and Outlook HICAP 2016 Jesper Palmqvist 20 October apinfo@strglobal.com 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without

More information

IMF Reform: The Unfinished Agenda. Jose De Gregorio Barry Eichengreen Takatoshi Ito Charles Wyplosz

IMF Reform: The Unfinished Agenda. Jose De Gregorio Barry Eichengreen Takatoshi Ito Charles Wyplosz IMF Reform: The Unfinished Agenda Jose De Gregorio Barry Eichengreen Takatoshi Ito Charles Wyplosz October 2018 1 IMF Reform 2 IMF Reform 3 We revisit the issue How the world has changed How the IMF has

More information

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy David Turner, OECD UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy, LINK Project October

More information

DEMOGRAPHIC INTERGENERATIONAL

DEMOGRAPHIC INTERGENERATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND INTERGENERATIONAL FAIRNESS Loukas Stemitsiotis Head of Thematic Analysis Unit DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, European Commission Why intergenerational fairness? Real

More information