TO INFINITY AND BEYOND? CAN RETAIL NON WOVENS KEEP GROWING? DANIEL GRIMSEY, RESEARCH ANALYST

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1 TO INFINITY AND BEYOND? CAN RETAIL NON WOVENS KEEP GROWING? DANIEL GRIMSEY, RESEARCH ANALYST

2 Euromonitor International: Global Market Intelligence 2

3 Euromonitor International Covers Your Industry 3 Countries & Consumers Alcoholic Drinks Beauty & Personal Care Apparel Consumer Appliances Consumer Electronics Consumer Health Home & Garden Eyewear Fresh Food Health & Wellness Home Care Hot Drinks Luxury Goods Packaged Food Pet Care Automotive Soft Drinks Tissue & Hygiene Tobacco Toys & Games Consumer Finance Travel & Tourism Retailing Consumer Foodservice Industrial Ingredients Packaging Euromonitor covers 100% of the market.

4 INTRODUCTION THE BASICS HOW TO DRIVE GROWTH SANITARY PROTECTION AND DIAPERS INCONTINENCE SUMMARY

5 INTRODUCTION

6 The centre of attention 6 BRIC Brazil Russia India China MINT Mexico Indonesia Nigeria Turkey

7 Key barriers in developed countries 7 Saturation Recession Ageing Population

8 Key drivers in developing countries 8 Population Growth Income Growth Improved Sanitation

9 Stagnating sales in developed countries 70 Developing 65 5% CAGR US$ Developed 1% CAGR 9 $ Billion

10 Growth is not infinite 10

11 Emerging markets become developed countries 11 Population Growth Income Growth Improved Sanitation

12 When? 12

13 Slow down 13 Who? What? When? Where? Why?

14 THE BASICS

15 Disposable income and hygiene sales 15 Income (US S$, per cap p) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Disposable 4,000 2, Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America

16 Penetration rates % penetration 0-36 months 1,200 units p.a.

17 Diminishing returns in diaper consumption 17 51,000 48,000 Switzerland 45,000 Australia Norway 42,000 Disposable Inco ome per capita (U US$) 39,000 36,000 33,000 30,000 27,000 24,000 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 US Canada Singapore Germany France UK New Zealand Ireland Italy Israel Spain Greece Taiwan Portugal Hong Kong South Korea Japan Australasia North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 India Indonesia 25% South Africa China Russia Turkey Brazil Poland 50% Tunisia 75% 100% Penetration ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Units per baby

18 Old times = Better times? 18

19 Diapers growth 19 Income Dis sposable 10, ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Period Growth and Income CAGR %Volume Income 2013

20 HOW TO DRIVE GROWTH

21 Hygiene sales linked to birth rate in mature markets 21

22 TCF GREEN CONFERENCE 2014 More food? More Offspring? 22

23 Demographic-economic paradox 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8, Disposable Income Per 0000 People 6,000 4,000 2, Births Time

24 Low birth rate - First world problem? 24

25 TCF GREEN CONFERENCE 2014 Fertility rates in 2024 Fertility Rate 2.1 <2.1 <2 1 25

26 Child care and incentives to increase birth rate? 26

27 Lifestyle choice 27 Family vs. Independence

28 If volume is not in your hands 28

29 VALUE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN SANITARY PROTECTION & DIAPERS

30 Path to value growth 30 Commodity Lifestyle Brand Equity Value Growth Brand Loyalty

31 Push it in the right direction 31 Private Label Share: Western Europe Market Share (%) Tissue Hygiene Beauty & Personal Care

32 Value growth 32 Packaging Marketing Innovation

33 Innovation: To stay on top of the game 33 Income

34 Consolidated markets 34 Number of Firms Market Penetration

35 Private label trying to get away from the budget segment 35

36 Create a competitive advantage % Total Diaper Sales 50% Mark ket Share (%) 0% Indonesia Japan Thailand 0 Disposable Pants Diapers Unicharm Market Share

37 Value growth 37 Packaging Marketing Innovation

38 Create brand loyalty 38

39 Paradigm shift 39

40 Attract young consumers - Break taboos 40

41 #BeRadiant 41

42 Value growth 42 Packaging Marketing Innovation

43 Attractive Packaging?! 43

44 Attracting the right consumer group 44 et Share (%) Mark Sanitary Protection in the US: Brand Shares Procter & Gamble Kimberly- Clark Energizer Johnson & Johnson Private Label

45 IT S NOT AS BAD AS IT APPEARS INCONTINENCE

46 Population continues to grow : 6.1 Billion : 8.4 Billion , ,000

47 Shift to future growth regions 47 Fertility Rate in <2.1

48 Population continues to grow : 6.1 Billion : 8.4 Billion -500, ,000

49 Population /2030 (in 000) , , ,000,000 1,000,000,

50 Retail Hygiene Growth 50 Y-o-y vol lume gro owth (%) Incontinence Nappies Sanitary Protection

51 Breaking taboos 51

52 SCA on a downward spiral 52 Market Share: US 60% 50% 40% SCA Kimberly -Clark Light Incontinence 30% 20% Private Label Others 10% 0% Moderate/Heavy Incontinence

53 Kimberly-Clark s Poise range 53

54 Depend - Moderate/heavy incontinence 54

55 Brand Extension 55 Sanitary Protection Light Incontinence

56 Internet retailing to overcome possible embarrassments Sweden: Incontinence Distribution 50 Market Share Tena 88% % 30 Grocery Health and Beauty Other 10 Internet

57 SUMMARY

58 Summary 58 Fertility rates have an immediate impact on the hygiene industry Income and fertility rate seem to be inversely correlated Low income requirements: Sanitary protection and diapers are slowly reaching maturity even in emerging markets Volume growth opportunities are limited and the focus will shift to value growth Innovation, marketing and packaging to transform hygiene into a lifestyle category Apart from sanitary protection and diapers, incontinence is still fairly undeveloped in many regions and offers both volume and value growth potential Incontinence: Normalisation to increase penetration

59 59 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

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