The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

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1 The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division

2 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth

3 Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate

4 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Housing essentially recovered

5 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Housing essentially recovered Financial sector largely recovered

6 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Housing essentially recovered Financial sector recovered 11 million jobs since start of recovery

7 Labor Market Million Total Nonfarm Jobs Million Household Employment SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Percent Unemployment Rate September 5.1% 4 Unemployment Rate U

8 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Housing essentially recovered Financial sector recovered 11 million jobs since start of recovery Household net worth recovered

9 Household Net Worth Trillion $ Household Wealth

10 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Housing essentially recovered Financial sector recovered 11 million jobs since start of recovery Household net worth recovered Corporate profits strong

11 U.S. Corporate Profits SAAR, $billions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

12 Glass Half Full Private construction up nearly 17% Y/Y New residential sales up nearly 26% Y/Y ISM non-manufacturing nearly 57 Inflation flat CPI-U at 0.2% Y/Y Budget deficit below half a trillion dollars

13 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits still nearly a half trillion dollars! And set to soar!

14 CBO s Baseline Deficit (August 2015) Billions $ 500 Budget Deficit Percent of GDP 5 Deficit to GDP

15 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits nearly a half trillion dollars Federal debt shot up and still rising fast

16 Federal Publicly Held Debt (August 2015) Billions $ 25,000 20,000 15,000 Debt 10,000 5, Percent of GDP Debt to GDP

17 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits huge and poised to soar Along with federal debt And nothing pending on entitlements

18 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits huge and poised to soar Along with federal debt And nothing pending on entitlements Multiple local weaknesses

19 Glass Half Empty Multiple local weaknesses Flat wages ISM manufacturing index at 50.2 Business investment in equipment flat Y/Y At risk of deflation?

20 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits huge and poised to soar Along with federal debt And nothing pending on entitlements Multiple local weaknesses A persistent output gap

21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q to Q Trillion $ Forecast Actual 10 Potential Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

22 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits huge and poised to soar Along with federal debt And nothing pending on entitlements A persistent output gap And a downgraded future

23 U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential (Real $2013 dollars)

24 Why is the Glass Half Empty?

25 Why is the Glass Half Empty? Despite historic fiscal and monetary stimulus? Five years of trillion dollar plus deficits Seven years of a near-zero Fed funds rate Over three trillion dollars of quantitative easing

26 Why is the Glass Half Empty? Despite historic fiscal and monetary stimulus? Administration s anti-growth tax hikes Anti-growth regulatory policies

27 Regulatory Overload 1. Health care: ACA regulation of health insurance benefit and payment parameters 2. Employee benefits: Expanded information reporting 3. Energy efficiency: 14 regulations on efficiency standards for electrical equipment 4. Air quality: Reduction of CO2 emissions from electricity generation facilities 5. Ozone: National ambient air quality standards for ozone 6. Labor: Fair Labor Standards Act regulations increasing overtime pay threshold 7. Natural gas: Requirements for air emissions and controls for new natural gas wells And over 240 additional regulations across all federal agencies in just the past year

28 Why is the Glass Half Empty? Despite historic fiscal and monetary stimulus? Administration s anti-growth tax hikes Anti-growth regulatory policies General sense of hostility toward businesses and economic growth

29 Good News! Sound policies can reverse effects of bad policies Underlying theme: Do Less Harm

30 What Can We Do? Education reform Infrastructure investment Comprehensive tax reform Advance free trade Energy market reform Emphasize prudent, cost-effective regulation Immigration reform Entitlement reform

31 Reasons for Optimism Proven resilience

32 Reasons for Optimism Proven resilience Trade agenda is advancing

33 Reasons for Optimism Proven resilience Trade agenda is advancing Best looking horse at the glue factory

34 Future Concerns End-game regulatory surge Washington dysfunction Cloudy international picture U.S. monetary policy

35 Future Concerns Administration s end-game regulatory surge

36 Future Concerns Administration s end-game regulatory surge Washington dysfunction

37 Future Concerns End-game regulatory surge Washington dysfunction Cloudy international picture

38 Countries in or Near Recession Outside of Europe: Canada (-0.5%) Japan (-0.3%) Australia (0.2%) South Africa (-0.3%) Brazil (-1.6%) Venezuela (-0.4% -- and 200% annual inflation)

39 Europe Debt crisis lingers Problems of currency union unresolved Conflicts in governance Now an immigration wave

40 China Managed economy with multiple imbalances, multiple excesses

41 China Managed economy with multiple imbalances, multiple excesses 10 Words huyou

42 Future Concerns End-game regulatory surge Washington dysfunction Cloudy international picture U.S. monetary policy

43 Future Concerns U.S. monetary policy Not what the Fed should do Or when the Fed will do it But the economic implications of a policy change

44 Future Concerns U.S. monetary policy implications: It Ain t Necessarily So

45 9 The Recent History of the Federal Funds Rate

46 Long Term Rates and the Funds Rate Not a Forecast

47 The Greenspan Conundrum

48 The Greenspan Conundrum Effective Funds Rate 10 Year Treasury Note

49 9 A Possible Future Path for the Funds Rate 8 7 Not a Forecast

50 Fed Policy Billions $ 4,500 4,000 Bank Assets and Liabilities 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Apr. July Oct. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)

51 Fed Policy Billions $ 5,000 4,500 Bank Assets and Liabilities 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Not a Forecast Excess Reserves Federal Reserve Assets

52 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full

53 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Recession? not in the near term

54 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Recession? not in the near term Steady growth

55 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Recession? not in the near term Steady growth Maybe with a new Administration, the economy can do better

56 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Recession? not in the near term Steady growth Maybe with a new Administration, the economy can do better How? By following the pro-growth policies the Chamber s laid out

57 What Can We Do to Fill the Glass? Education reform Infrastructure investment Comprehensive tax reform Advance free trade Energy market reform Emphasize prudent, cost-effective regulation Immigration reform Entitlement reform

58 The Economic Outlook: Economic Policy Division

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