44 Economic Perspectives

Transcription

1 44 Economic Perspectives Source: Kotlikoff (1988), p. 44 In Hundreds 70 Of Dollars ;-*** * s EARNINGS 20 -CONSUMPTION Age Year Fig. 1. Sum of male and female longitudinal average earnings and average consumption profiles, age 18 in 1910-age 82 in 1974

2 Table 4 Source: Gale and Scholz (1994), p. 152 Intergenerational Transfers as a Source of Capital Accumulation, 1986 Stock of Transfer Wealth Annual Flow ($ billions) Transfer Category ($ billions) (r - n = 0.01) Support Given to: Children Parents Grandparents Grandchildren Trusts Life Insurance Totals Intended Transfers College Payments Bequests As a % of net wortha Intended Transfers College Expenses Bequests Source: Authors' calculations from the Survey of Consumer Finances. aaggregate net worth in the SCF in 1986 is $11,976 billion.

3 Source: courtesy of Jim Poterba

4 Source: courtesy of Jim Poterba

5 LONG-RUN EVOLUTION OF INHERITANCE 1073 Source: Piketty QJE'11 FIGURE I Annual Inheritance Flow as a Fraction of National Income, France,

6 Building a Better America Source: Norton and Ariely 2011 Fig. 2. The actual United States wealth distribution plotted against the estimated and ideal distributions across all respondents. Because of their small percentage share of total wealth, both the 4th 2 value (0.2%) and the Bottom 2 value (0.1%) are not visible in the Actual distribution.

7 80 Private wealth / national income ratios, USA Germany UK Canada Japan France Italy Australia Authors' computations using country national accounts. Private wealth = non-financial assets + financial assets - financial liabilities (household & non-profit sectors) Source: Piketty and Zucman '13

8 80 Private wealth / national income ratios USA 60 Europe Authors' computations using country national accounts. Private wealth = non-financial assets + financial assets - financial liabilities (household & non-profit sectors) Source: Piketty and Zucman '13

9 60 50 The changing nature of national wealth, US (incl. slaves) Net foreign assets Other domestic capital Housing Slaves Agricultural land (% national income) National wealth = agricultural land + housing + other domestic capital goods + net foreign assets Source: Piketty and Zucman '13

10 80 The changing nature of national wealth, UK (% national income) Net foreign assets Other domestic capital Housing Agricultural land National wealth = agricultural land + housing + other domestic capital goods + net foreign assets Source: Piketty, Handbook chapter, 2014

11 80 The changing nature of national wealth, France (% national income) Net foreign assets Other domestic capital Housing Agricultural land National wealth = agricultural land + housing + other domestic capital goods + net foreign assets Source: Piketty, Handbook chapter, 2014

12 Figure S11.3. The share of inherited wealth in aggregate wealth, France ( : g=1,7%, r=3,) Partially capitalized inheritance (PPVR definition) Non-capitalized inheritance (Modigliani) Source: Piketty, Handbook chapter, 2014

13 Figure S11.4. The share of inherited wealth in aggregate wealth, France ( : g=1,7%, r=3,) Capitalized inheritance (KS1) (Kotlikoff-Summers, r=3%, 30yrs) Partially capitalized inheritance (PPVR definition) Non-capitalized inheritance (Modgliani) Source: Piketty, Handbook chapter, 2014

14 Figure The inheritance flow in Europe % France 2 16% United Kingdom (Atkinson) Germany (Schinke) 12% 8% 4% Source: Piketty, Handbook chapter, 2014

15 4 Figure 12: Capital shares in factor-price national income % 3 25% 2 15% USA Japan Germany France UK Canada Australia Italy Source: Piketty and Zucman (2014)

16 10 Figure Wealth inequality in the U.S., Shar re of top decile or percentile in total wealth Top 1 wealth chare Top 1% wealth share The top 1 wealth holders own about 8 of total wealth in 1910, and 75% today. Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c. Source: Piketty (2014)

17 10 Figure Wealth inequality: Europe and the U.S., Share of top decile or percentile in total wealth Top 1 wealth share: Europe Top 1 wealth share: U.S. Top 1% wealth share: Europe Top 1% wealth share: U.S Until the mid 20th century, wealth inequality was higher in Europe than in the United States. Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c. Source: Piketty (2014)

18 6% Figure After tax rate of return vs. growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2100 Annual rate of return or rate of growth 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Pure rate of return to capital (after tax and capital losses) Growth rate of world output g The rate of return to capital (after tax and capital losses) fell below the growth rate during the 20th century, and may again surpass it in the 21st century. Sources and series : see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c Source: Piketty (2014)

19 Figure The share of inherited wealth in total wealth, France f inherited wealth (% total wealth of the living) Cumulated value of Share of inherited wealth ( : g=1,7%, r=3,) Share of inherited wealth ( : g=1,, r=5,) Inherited wealth represents 80-9 of total wealth in France in the 19th century; this share fell to 4-5 during the 20th century, and might return to 8-9 during the 21st century. Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c Source: Piketty (2014)

20 Treatment example: Information about the Estate Tax

21 Source: Saez and Zucman (2014) 35% The composition of capital income in the U.S., % of factor-price national income 25% 2 15% 1 5% Corporate profits Noncorporate business profits Profits & interest paid to pensions Net interest Housing rents (net of mortgages)

22 Source: Saez and Zucman (2014) The composition of household wealth in the U.S., % of national income Equities Sole proprietorships & partnerships Pensions Currency, deposits and bonds Housing (net of mortgages)

23 9 Top 1 Wealth Shares: Comparing Es8mates 85% 8 75% 7 65% 6 Capitalized Incomes (Saez- Zucman) 55% SCF (Kennickell)

24 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 Top 1% Wealth Shares: Comparing Es7mates Source: Saez and Zucman (2014) 15% Capitalized Incomes (Saez- Zucman) 1 Estates (Kopczuk- Saez and IRS) 5% SCF (Kennickell)

25 Source: Saez and Zucman (2014) 45% Composition of the bottom 9 wealth share 4 35% % of net household wealth 3 25% 2 15% Business assets Equities & fixed claims (net of non-mortgage debt) 1 5% Pensions Housing (net of mortgages)

26 10 Figure 3.1. Wealth inequality in France, Share of top decile or percentile in total wealth Top 1 wealth share Top 1% wealth share The top decile (the top 1 highest wealth holders) owns 80-9 of total wealth in , and 60-65% today. Source: Piketty and Zucman '14, handbook chapter

27 10 Figure 3.3. Wealth inequality in the United Kingom, Share of top decie or top percentile in total wealth Top 1 wealth share Top 1% wealth share The top decile owns 80-9 of total wealth in , and 7 today. Source: Piketty and Zucman '14, handbook chapter

28 10 Figure 3.4. Wealth inequality in Sweden, Share of top decie or percentile in total wealth Top 1 wealth share Top 1% wealth share The top 1 holds 80-9 of total wealth in , and 55-6 today. Source: Piketty and Zucman '14, handbook chapter

29 10 Figure 3.5. Wealth inequality in the U.S., Share of top decile or percentile in total wealth Top 1 wealth chare Top 1% wealth share The top 1 wealth holders own about 8 of total wealth in 1929, and 75% today.

30 10 Figure 4.4. The cumulated stock of inherited wealth as a fraction of aggregate private wealth, France Cumulated stock of inherited wealth (% private wealth) Share of inherited wealth (PPVR definition, extrapolation) Share of inherited wealth (simplified definition, lower bound) Inherited wealth represents 80-9 of total wealth in France in the 19th century; this share fell to 4-5 during the 20th century, and is back to about 60-7 in the early 21st century. Source: Piketty and Zucman '14, handbook chapter

31 Figure 4.5. The inheritance flow in Europe Annual flow of bequests and gifts (% national income) 24% 2 16% 12% 8% France U.K. Germany 4% The inheritance flow follows a U-shaped in curve in France as well as in the U.K. and Germany. It is possible that gifts are underestimated in the U.K. at the end of the period. Source: Piketty and Zucman '14, handbook chapter

32 10 9 Figure 4.6. The inheritance stock in Europe (simplified definitions using inheritance vs. saving flows) (approximate, lower-bound estimates) France Stock of inherited wealth(% private wealth) U.K. Germany The inheritance share in aggregate wealth accumulation follows a U-shaped curve in France and Germany (and to a more limited extent in the U.K. and Germany. It is possible that gifts are under-estimated in the U.K. at the end of the period. Source: Piketty and Zucman '14, handbook chapter

33 3 Top 0.1% wealth share in the U.S., % 2 15% 1 5%

34 14% Top wealth shares: decomposing the top 1% 12% Top 0.5%-0.1% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Top 0.1%-0.01% Top 0.01% Top 1%-0.5%