The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns
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1 The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop
2 World stuck on low-growth path (IMF consistently wrong) 5 IMF forecasts of global economic growth (using market exchange rates), % y-o-y April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016 January 2017 Latest data point Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databases
3 Partly because of the debt overhang % of GDP % of GDP Developed economies Developing economies Source: Bank for International Settlement database Outstanding debt of non-financial sector, % of GDP
4 % change over previous year But also the retreat from globalization 15 World GDP and cross-border trade growth 10 5 World trade growth World GDP growth Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and the World Trade Organization
5 % change over previous year Poor demographics in some major economies 4.0 Labour force growth Note: Only +0.1% pa without net immigration US China Japan Germany Source: Oxford Economics
6 % interest rate Billion US$ The exhaustion of monetary policies US federal funds target rate and balance sheet assets US Federal Reserve Bank assets US fed funds Source: Haver
7 % change over previous year We got air travel wrong but under not over-estimated 10 IATA forecasts of global RPK growth Dec 2015 Dec 2014 Dec 2013 Dec Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry 7
8 Sources: IATA using SRS Analyser data Partly because of price-stimulation from LCC entry LCC share of seats flown (% of total) 60% Within Southeast Asia 50% 40% Within Europe 30% Global Within Asia 20% Australasia - Asia Middle East - Asia 10% Europe - Asia North America - Europe 0% North America - Asia
9 Oil price, US$/ barrel Average return fare, US$ And then because oil prices collapsed 140 Average return fare and Brent crude oil prices Average return fare -20% Brent oil price Source: IATA using PaxIS+ and Haver data 9
10 Still plenty of potential for growth in air travel Australia Spain United Kingdom Canada United States Italy France Germany Saudi Arabia Korea, Republic Of Japan Thailand Turkey Chile Colombia Russian Federation Mexico Brazil Indonesia South Africa China Egypt India Nigeria Propensity to fly (total passengers/population) Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016 Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop
11 Expect large rises in trip frequency in some key markets Source: IATA Economics using data from PaxIS+ and Oxford Economics
12 Of course demographics will also make a big difference % change 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% The UN's projected change in population ( ,%) UN projections adjusted for demographic factors Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016
13 Biggest incremental growth on domestic markets China United States India Indonesia Vietnam Turkey Brazil Philippines Australia Mexico Corresponding CAGR 5.2% 2.6% 6.7% 3.5% 8.2% 5.2% 2.6% 6.0% 3.0% 4.2% Change in domestic O-D markets (millions, ) Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016
14 Significant change in top-10 in air travel in next 20 years US China UK Japan Spain Germany India Italy France Indonesia China US India UK Indonesia Japan Spain Germany Brazil Turkey Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016 Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop
15 But world could follow quite different paths Global O-D passenger journeys (billion) Reflation/open borders scenario Constant policies scenario Pick-up in Protectionism scenario Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016
16 What could go wrong protectionism? Donald Trump Vows to Rip Up Trade Deals and Confront China The New York Times 28 June 2016
17 What could go wrong Brexit and EU instability? Source: Schroders 17
18 What could go wrong US economic policies?
19 What could go wrong Chinese property prices
20 % of GDP % of GDP What could go wrong debt crisis? Outstanding debt of non-financial sector, % of GDP Developed economies Developing economies Source: IATA using data from BIS 20
21 What could go wrong rising interest rates? 18 US 10-year Treasury Bond Yield % Source: IATA using data from Haver Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop
22 Million barrels production per day Days of supply What could go wrong oil prices? OPEC spare capacity and OECD crude oil inventories OECD crude oil inventories (right scale) OPEC spare capacity (left scale) Source: Haver Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop
23 What could go wrong inflation? US$ trillion Yen trillion Central bank assets US Federal Reserve Bank of Japan Source: IATA using data from Haver 23
24 What we were forecasting years ago!
25 Radical uncertainty The importance of things we do not know we do not know - LCCs in Europe 20 years ago? - 9/11 15 years ago? - Dubai No 1 10 years ago? - Brexit 5 years ago? - Commercial drones? - Virtual reality? - Data aggregators?
26 What to do in the face of radical uncertainty? Create options Create flexibility Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop
27 Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop
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