2016 Indiana Renewables Study & 2015 Forecast

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1 2016 Indiana Renewables Study & 2015 Forecast Presented by: Douglas J. Gotham, Director State Utility Forecasting Group Purdue University Presented to: Interim Study Committee on Energy, Utilities, and Telecommunications Indiana General Assembly September 29, 2016

2 2016 Renewable Resources Study Renewable energy trends Individual renewable resources Wind Energy crops Organic waste Solar/photovoltaics Fuel cells Hydropower Algae 2

3 Historical Renewable Energy in the U.S. Source: EIA 3

4 2015 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source Source: EIA 4

5 2015 U.S. Electricity Generation by Energy Source Source: EIA 5

6 Renewables Share of Indiana Total Energy Consumption Source: EIA 6

7 Renewables Share of Indiana Electricity Generation Source: EIA 7

8 Energy from Wind Sources: IURC, EIA 8

9 Wind 1,894 MW of utility scale wind in Indiana 100 MW under construction 317 MW proposed but not started Indiana utilities have agreements to purchase 1,111 MW of wind power 697 MW from in-state 414 MW from out-of-state 9

10 Energy Crops Transportation fuels Ethanol Biodiesel Other possibilities Fast growing trees (hybrid poplar/southern pine/willow/eucalyptus) Grasses (switchgrass/sugar cane) Barriers to be overcome Other high-value uses for the land Harvesting and transportation costs Price of competing fossil fuels 10

11 Organic Waste Biomass Until the recent increase in ethanol production, this resource was the largest source of renewable energy in Indiana Primarily due to the use of wood waste It is the 2 nd largest source of renewable electricity generation in the state Landfill gas (67 MW) Animal waste biogas (16 MW) Wastewater treatment (195 kw) 11

12 Solar Energy / Photovoltaics Source: DOE 12

13 Photovoltaics Sources: IURC, NREL 13

14 Photovoltaics Continued growth is expected with about 100 MW of planned additions over the next 5 years by Indiana utilities Growth has been driven by lowering costs, utility feed-in tariffs, expanded eligibility rules for net metering, and tax incentives 14

15 Hydroelectric Power Until expansion of wind energy beginning in 2008, hydro was the largest source of renewable electricity in Indiana 73 MW, mostly run-of-the-river (no dam) Now 3 rd largest source of renewable electricity The 88 MW project at the Cannelton Locks on the Ohio River is expected to be fully commissioned in 2016 Most of the output will go to utilities outside Indiana 15

16 Indiana Electricity Projections: The 2015 Forecast The 2015 forecast shows little growth through 2020 and stronger growth thereafter Real (inflationadjusted) prices increase in the first few years before leveling off 16

17 Indiana Electricity Requirements Retail sales by investor owned and not-for-profit utilities Includes estimated transmission and distribution losses Growth rates 2015 forecast: 1.17% 2013 forecast: 0.74% 2011 forecast: 1.30% GWh History Year (Current Forecast) Forecast

18 Indiana Resource Requirements Resources may be provided by conservation measures, contractual purchases, purchases of existing assets, or new construction Existing resources are adjusted into the future for retirements, contract expirations, and IURC approved new resources MW SUFG Required Resources Projected Demand with 19.5 Percent Reserve Margin Year Existing Resources 18

19 Indiana Real Price Projections (2013 $) Effect of inflation removed Includes the cost of new resources Due to timing of the release of the final version of the EPA Clean Power Plan, it is not included Other finalized rules (e.g., MATS) are included Cents/kWh History Year 2015 (Current Forecast) Forecast 19

20 Further Information State Utility Forecasting Group Douglas Gotham

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