SEB Commodities Research

Transcription

1 SEB Commodities Research Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Nov Bjarne Schieldrop Head of SEB Commodities Research

2 Aug-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 End of US QE, looking forward to first US rate hike Volatility is back. Multi-speed world: Strong US, weakness EU, slowing China 58 JPM global manufacturing PMI 3.3 World GDP Forecast MS World Equity index (RHS) FICC Oslo 2

3 Commodities indices performance 20% 15% 10% Commodity indices in nominal USD CMCI Ener USD Pr Ind CMCI IndMet USD Pr Ind CMCI Agri USD Pr Ind CMCI PrMet USD Pr Ind 20% 15% 10% Commodity indices in adj. for USD index change CMCI Ener USD Pr Ind CMCI IndMet USD Pr Ind CMCI Agri USD Pr Ind CMCI PrMet USD Pr Ind 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -20% Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov FICC Oslo 3

4 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Copper - weak surplus in before new deficit Non-China demand still 2 mt/y below pre-crisis level. Stocks are low. China to continue to be in structural deficit of copper 1,000, , ,000 Comex Copper Stocks (LHS) Shanghai Copper stocks (LHS) LME Copper stocks (LHS) LME 3mth copper price USD/ton (RHS) 8,500 8,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 Regional copper demand (ton per year) China copper demand Refined Cu Dmnd North America 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000, , , , ,000 7,500 7,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 Refined Cu Dmnd - Europe 6,000,000 4,000, , ,000 6,500 2,000,000 Refined Cu Dmnd Asia ex-china 2,000, ,000 6, FICC Oslo 4

5 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Zinc: Bullish mines are closing and stocks are falling Falling prices lately on risk-off, stronger USD and softer world GDP outlook Shanghai Zinc stocks (LHS) Old mines are closing Closed: - Canada Xstrata s Brunswick and Perseverance 335 ktpa - Ireland Vendata s Lisheen mine 170 ktpa Fully closing 2015: - Australia MMG s Century mine 500 ktpa 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 LME Zinc stocks (LHS) LME Zinc 3 mth USD/ton (RHS) 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 Deficit to continue Price target 2015: $2500/t (now $2233/t) 1,000, , ,000 1,900 1,800 1, ,000 1, ,000 1, FICC Oslo 5

6 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar Gold: Bearish US moving towards first rate hike Gold to move towards pre-crisis level of $ /ozt on stronger USD and end of financial crisis in the US. Strong appetite from China, India and Thailand Thailand - Gold imports ton/mth India - Gold imports ton/mth China - Gold imports ton/mth 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 Gold min production 12mth sum - metric ton - (LHS) Gold average monthly price USD/ozt (RHS) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,100 2, FICC Oslo 6

7 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Outage mb/d Crude oil: Neutral $85/b Challenges from all directions Price held up post crisis due to supply disruptions in MENA region. Now strongly rising US shale oil supply has caught up with weak demand growth Brent crude oil USD/b 4.0 Unplanned supply outage mb/d Other Colombia Brazil Yemen China Syria Sudan / S. Sudan Iraq Nigeria Libya Iran FICC Oslo 7

8 Crude oil demand growth - First rapidly, then how slowly? Politics & technology propelling us towards much slower oil demand growth rates already? Demand growth outlook for 2014 and 2015 likely to be adjusted lower after latest IMF downgrade of world economic growth 7.0% 10 yr average oil global oil demand growth rate 1.4% Oil demand growth rates projections IEA BP 6.0% 1.2% 5.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.8% 3.0% 0.6% 2.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% FICC Oslo 8

9 SEB s Commodities price forecast (From Oct ) 13 FICC Oslo 9

10 SEB Offices SEB locations Copenhagen Bernstorffsgade 50 P.O. Box 100 DK-0900 Copenhagen Denmark Telephone: Frankfurt Ulmenstrasse 30 DE Frankfurt Germany Telephone: Helsinki Unioninkatu 30 P.O. Box 630 FI Helsinki Finland Telephone: Oslo Filipstad Brygge 1 P.O. Box 1843 Vika N-0123 Oslo Norway Telephone: Riga Valdauci, Mestaru street 1 LV-1076 Riga Latvia Telephone: Stockholm Kungsträdgårdsgatan 8 SE Stockholm Sweden Telephone: Tallinn Tornimäe 2 EE Tallinn Estonia Telephone: Vilnius Gedimino pr. 12 LT Vilnius Lithuania Telephone: Disclaimer This presentation is confidential and produced for private information of recipients only. All information contained in this presentation has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the presentation is not to be relied upon as authoritative. To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents. Prior to entering into any transaction contemplated hereby (a Transaction ) you are urged to determine, without reliance upon us, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such Transaction. In this regard, by accepting this presentation, you acknowledge that (a) we are not providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any Transaction and (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice. Any terms set forth in this presentation are intended for discussion purposes only. Any prices or levels contained herein are preliminary and indicative only and do not represent bids or offers. These indications are provided solely for your information and consideration, are subject to change at any time without notice and are not intended as a solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any instrument. The information contained in this presentation may include results of analyses from a quantitative model, which represent potential future events that may or may not be realized, and is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any product. Any estimates included herein constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without any notice. We may make a market in these instruments for our customers and for our own account. Accordingly, we may have a position in any such instrument at any time 13 FICC Oslo 10