Polyamide & Intermediates Markets

Transcription

1 Polyamide & Intermediates Markets Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2013 Taipei, 10 May 2013 (Grace) Shen Hong

2 AGENDA Polyamide 6 Intermediates World Caprolactam Supply and Demand Polyamide 6 Demand Economic Analysis Conclusion Polyamide 66 Intermediates World Adipic Acid Supply and Demand World Adiponitrile Supply and Demand Polyamide 66 Demand Conclusion

3 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons Including uncertain plants 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 Effect of unscheduled plant downtime Including highly probable new plants Oversupply 5,000 4,500 4,000 Capability to produce Forecast Growth 3.0% p.a. 3,500 Growth 2.7% p.a. 3,000 Growth 3.4% p.a. Growth 3.0% p.a. Caprolactam Consumption 2,

4 CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY Uncertain New Projects In China 1,000 Metric Tons 1,200 China 1,000 Guangdong 800 China Fujian 600 China Baling 400 Hengyi Additions Uncertain Closure 2014 Additions Additions 2014 Additions 2013 Additions 2011 Fujian Liheng Fujian Tianchen BASF DSM Ube Honeywell CPDC Capro Corp Lanxess Sumitomo Domo C.I.S Poland India Others Sinopec Bohui Shandong Hongye Zhejiang Juhua Shandong Luxi Hubei Sanning

5 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 7,500 7,000 6,500 Including uncertain plants Including highly probable new plants 6,000 5,500 5,000 Capability to produce World Growth % p.a. 4,500 4,000 3,500 World Growth 2.7% p.a. China Consumption Growth % p.a. 3,000 2,500 Rest of the World Caprolactam Consumption

6 WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE 1,000 Metric Tons N America S America W Europe E Europe ME & Africa 2004 S & SE Asia Japan Taiwan & S Korea China

7 WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE TRENDS TO ,000 Metric Tons N America S America W Europe E Europe ME & Africa S & SE Asia Japan Taiwan & S Korea China Forecast Trend to

8 WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE 1,000 Metric Tons 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Growth % 1.8% -2.5% 3.1% PA6 Resin Staple High Ten Yarn Bulked Carpet Textile Fibre

9 WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 DEMAND BY REGION 1,000 Metric Tons 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, S&SE Asia China 0 North America South America West Europe East Europe ME & Africa Northeast Asia PA6 Resin BCF & Staple High Ten Yarn Textile Filament

10 CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST vs OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 3,500 Fixed costs of supplying plants Cost of Production in Asia 3,000 Cats & Chemicals Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) Delivery Fixed costs of caprolactam plant 2,500 2,000 1,500 Packing, loading Energy dependant costs 1,000 Cyclohexane Brent Crude oil price $/bbl

11 CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST vs OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Cats & Chemicals Packing, loading shipping 12 2 Fixed costs of supplying plants Delivery Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) Profit zone 6 7 Cyclohexane Cost of Production in Asia Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Energy dependant costs Crude Oil Price $/bbl

12 CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST vs OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Cats & Chemicals Packing, loading shipping 12 2 Fixed costs of supplying plants Delivery Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) Profit zone 6 7 Cyclohexane Cost of Production in Asia Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Energy dependant costs Crude Oil Price $/bbl

13 CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST vs OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 3,500 Fixed costs of supplying plants Cost of Production in Asia 3,000 Cats & Chemicals Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) Delivery Fixed costs of caprolactam plant 2,500 2,000 1,500 Packing, loading Energy dependant costs 1,000 Cyclohexane Brent Crude oil price $/bbl

14 CAPROLACTAM INDUSTRY CASH COST CURVE October US Dollars per Ton 3500 Each Column Represents an Existing Caprolactam Plant Fixed Cost Variable Cost Cumulative Capacity ktpa

15 TIGHTNESS INDEX World Capacity Utilisation Rate 96.0% World Markets Very Tight Tightness Index % Tight % 84.0% Balanced Loose % Over-Supplied (Sloppy) 0.6

16 TIGHTNESS INDEX For a given year: World Tightness Index = log 10 Capability Capability - Consumption Capability = Annual Nameplate Capacity less Capacity off line* * Due to unscheduled stoppages, not scheduled maintenance turnarounds

17 APIC 2103 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 7,500 7,000 6,500 Including highly probable new plants Including uncertain plants 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 Tightness Index for 2014 = Log 10 C B Capability to produce B 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Growth 3.4% p.a. Growth 3.0% p.a. Growth 2.7% p.a. Caprolactam Consumption C

18 CAPROLACTAM PRICE HISTORY - ASIA Tightness Index H VERY TIGHT TIGHT H H H BALANCED LOOSE OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) $3400 $3200 $3000 $2800 $2600 $2400 $2200 H H1 H2 H Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl $2000

19 CAPROLACTAM PRICE ASIA 2010 by month Tightness Index VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) $3400 $3200 $3000 $2800 $2600 $2400 $2200 H H Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl $2000

20 CAPROLACTAM PRICE ASIA 2011 by month VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) Tightness Index $3400 $3200 $3000 $2800 $2600 $2400 $2200 H H Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl $2000

21 CAPROLACTAM PRICE ASIA H1 by month Tightness Index VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) $3400 $3200 $3000 $2800 $2600 $2400 $2200 H1 H $2000 Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl

22 CAPROLACTAM PRICE ASIA by month Tightness Index 1.6 VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) $3400 $3200 $3000 $2800 $2600 $2400 $2200 H2 H $2000 Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl

23 CAPROLACTAM 2013 PRICE FORECAST ASIA (Dec Forecast) Tightness Index VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED 1.0 $ $3200 LOOSE 0.8 $ $2800 OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) Forecast by the US Energy Information Administration $2600 $2400 $ Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl $2000

24 CAPROLACTAM 2014 PRICE FORECAST - ASIA Tightness Index VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE $3400 $3200 $3000 OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) Forecast by the US Energy Information Administration April Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl $2800 $2600 $2400 $2200 $2000

25 CONCLUSIONS - POLYAMIDE 6 INDUSTRY World caprolactam consumption showed little growth in 2011, then returned to growth in -- but only in China Caprolactam consumption has grown about 18% in in China, a bounce-back after stagnation in 2011, boosted by both textile applications and engineering plastics applications Outside China, caprolactam growth has been zero or negative in Six new 100 ktpa caprolactam units have been brought on stream in China in, by Haili (2), Hengyi (2), Hongye (1) and Sinopec (1), doubling China s capacity within 12 months These additions have moved the world caprolactam balance into over-supply, yet more capacity of 400 ktpa will come on stream in H and various other projects are under construction or planned in China World caprolactam over-supply is thus inevitable over the next few years, possibly mitigated by closure of some old plants This has dire consequences for caprolactam industry profitability over the next few years Caprolactam producers need to develop and promote PA6 engineering plastics applications in order to boost consumption

26 WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 4,500 4,000 3,500 Forecast Growth 2.7% Capability to Produce 3,000 2,500 2,000 Growth 4.0% Invista closes 450 ktpa at Wilton & Maitland, rebuilds Orange Adipic Acid Consumption 1,

27 WORLD ADIPIC ACID PRODUCERS 1,000 Metric Tons Invista Rhodia Ascend BASF Asahi Kasei Radici Lanxess Ukraine Liaoyang Petrochemical China Shenma Shandong Hongye Shandong Haili Dushanzi Tianli Hualu Hengsheng Chongqing Fuxiang Yangmei Fengxi Kailuan Energy Zhejiang Shuyang 800 China Singapore closure Additions Additions 2013

28 WORLD ADIPIC ACID CONSUMPTION BY END-USE 1,000 Metric Tons 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Growth % 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% Others Polyurethane Plasticisers Polyamide

29 WORLD ADIPONITRILE CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons Assumed new 300 kpta plant 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 Capability to Produce BASF closes 116 ktpa at Wilton, UK 1,400 1,300 1,200 Forecast Growth 2.8% 1,100 1, Growth 3.1% Invista s 254 ktpa unit at Orange, USA out of action Adiponitrile Consumption Capability = 0.95 x Nameplate Capacity

30 WORLD POLYAMIDE 66 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE 1,000 Metric Tons 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Growth % 2.4% 1.9% PA66 Resin Staple High Ten Yarn Bulked Carpet Textile Fibre 1.7%

31 WORLD POLYAMIDE 66 DEMAND BY REGION 1,000 Metric Tons 1,400 1,200 1,000 PA66 Resin PA66 Fibre North America South America West Europe East Europe ME & Africa S&SE Asia Northeast Asia China 0

32 CONCLUSIONS - POLYAMIDE 66 INDUSTRY The world adipic acid market is seriously oversupplied. China has the biggest adipic acid capacity of any country, but the average utilisation rate in China is now as low as 50%. Adipic acid demand for both polyurethane and polyamide applications will grow steadily, with major increases taking place in China However, fierce competition will lead to low profit, even for top quality adipic acid producers. A reshaping of the adipic acid industry is possible if the global economy stays volatile in 2013 and beyond If adiponitrile capacity is not increased in the near future, adiponitrile will be extremely tight from 2016, possibly earlier PA66 producers have to grapple with high and volatile costs which are likely to persist and may damage long term PA66 growth Polyamide 66 resin demand in engineering plastics applications shows more dynamism than polyamide 66 fibre PA66 faces substitutional pressure from PA6, due to the widening pricing difference

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