2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014
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1 2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014
2 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook Conclusion
3 Why Are You Here Today?
4 U.S. Economy
5 Annual % Change U.S. Economic Growth f 2015f Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC
6 Key Sectors of Macroeconomy Consumer Sector Business Sector Government International Trade Other Macro Indicators: Labor Market Inflation
7 U.S. Personal Consumption Annual % Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
8 10% Business Investment Spending Annual Percentage Change % 6.5% 7.5% 7.4% 6% 4% 4.6% 3.4% 3.9% 5.1% 2% 0% -2% -0.5% Equipment Intellectual Property Structures 1.1% Source: IHS, LAEDC
9 Federal Budget Receipts & Outlays as Percentage of GDP Receipts Outlays f Source: Office of Management & Budget
10 Global Economic Outlook Annual % Growth F 2015F World Euro Area Developing Asia Latin America/Carb. Japan Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2014 Update
11 U.S. Labor Market in Expansion Phase /1973-3/1975 1/1980-7/1980 7/ /1982 7/1990-3/1991 3/ / /2007-6/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 U-Rate Approaching Natural Rate (mid-5%) 15% Seasonally Adjusted, Sept 2014: 5.9% U.S. Average 1990-Now 10% 5% 0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth Steady MTM changes in thousands, Seasonally Adjusted MTM Job Changes 3 per. Mov. Avg. (MTM Job Changes) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 Q: When Will Fed Raise Rates? Quantitative Easing (QE) Short Term Rates in second half of 2015
15 Declining Labor Force Participation Rate - - Structural or Cyclical? 70% Earliest Boomers Hit 65 Yrs in 2011! 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
16 High % of Part-Time Employment - - Structural or Cyclical? 20% Part Time % Ave 1990-Now 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
17 Wage Gains vs. Inflation 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Annual % Change in Hourly Wage Annual Inflation Rate -0.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Q: When Will Fed Raise Rates? Fed to end Quantitative Easing (QE) soon Fed to raise short term rates in second half of 2015 Concern about Fed getting ahead of the curve and ability to react to future events
19 U.S. Economy to Accelerate in e 2015f GDP - Annual % Chg. 1.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.9% Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.3% 5.8% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% Forecast Source: LAEDC
20 California Economy
21 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 California U-Rate Falling Quickly 15% U.S. CA 10% 5% 0% Source: US BLS, CA EDD
22 and Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. 4% 3% US CA 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: US BLS, CA EDD
23 Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs San Francisco San Jose Bakersfield Riverside-San Bernardino San Diego Oakland Stockton MSA LA Modesto Sacramento Ventura Orange County Fresno MSA 0.4% Aug 2014: +313,900, +2.1% YTY 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 3.5% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
24 Job Trends by Industry CA Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs Construction Administrative & Support & Waste Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Information Management of Companies & Enterprises Health Care & Social Assistance Educational Services Leisure & Hospitality Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Wholesale Trade Durable Goods Government Nondurable Goods Finance & Insurance -1.9% -2.2% Aug 2014: +313,900, +2.1% YTY 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 5.6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
25 California Steady Progress e 2015f Nonfarm Jobs - annual % chg. 1.0% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% Unemployment Rate 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 7.0% Personal Income - annual % chg. Total Taxable Sales - % chg. Housing Permits - thousands of units 6.6% 5.0% 2.8% 4.4% 5.1% 9.1% 7.3% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% Forecast Source: LAEDC
26 Southern California Economy
27 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Local Unemployment Rates 20% Aug 2014 LA - 8.5% OC - 5.4% IE - 8.7% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
28 Job Trends by Industry Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment Aug 2014: +69,100 jobs, +1.7% YTY Administrative & Support & Waste Services Construction Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Information Leisure & Hospitality Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Government Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing -4.2% -1.6% 6.1% 5.6% 4.6% 3.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
29 Job Trends by Industry Orange County YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Educational Services Construction Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Leisure & Hospitality Transportation & Warehousing Information Health Care & Social Assistance Durable Goods Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Nondurable Goods Administrative & Support & Waste Services Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Government Finance & Insurance Aug 2014 YTY: +17,900, +1.2%; u-rate: 5.4% -1.4% -1.6% -1.9% -2.2% -4.5% 5.7% 3.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 10.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division -8% -3% 2% 7% 12%
30 Job Trends by Industry Riverside San Bernardino YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Educational Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Leisure & Hospitality Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Construction Transportation & Warehousing Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Information Government Administrative & Support & Waste Services Wholesale Trade Durable Goods Finance & Insurance Nondurable Goods Aug 2014 YTY: +33,700, +2.8%; u-rate: 8.7% -1.1% -1.7% 4.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 7.2% 8.8% 6.5% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
31 Job Trends by Industry Ventura County YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Construction Leisure & Hospitality Administrative & Support & Waste Services Information Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Educational & Health Services Manufacturing Government Financial Activities Aug 2014 Total: +3,700, +1.3%; u-rate: 6.8% 6.9% -0.3% -0.5% -1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% 4.7% 3.8% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
32 Major Industries in Southern California Trade Entertainment Business Services Private Education Institutions Aerospace & Analytical Instruments Fashion & Apparel Manufacturing Hospitality Local Serving: Retail, Medical
33 YTD Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Thousands Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura YTD: +1.4% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
34 Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Millions of TEUs f Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC
35 Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment in Los Angeles County Thousands YTD: +6.8% YTD Sources: CA EDD. LMID
36 H13 1H14 Thousands On-Location Film Production Days by Type Feature Films Television Commercials Other 0 Source: Film LA
37 YTD Southern California Manufacturing Employment 1,200,000 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Source: California EDD
38 Manufacturing Trends Adding Jobs: Machinery Mfg Furniture Miscellaneous Durable Goods Losing Jobs: Petro-Chemical Food Aerospace Electronics Apparel/Textiles
39 Value of Manufacturing Output, California 300 $ Billions (in 2009 Dollars) Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Kyser Center for for Economic Research
40 YTD Southern California Professional & Business Services Employment 1,200 Thousands Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 1, Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
41 YTD Southern California Retail Employment Thousands 1, Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
42 Southern California Leisure & Hospitality Employment Thousands of Jobs 1,200 1, Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire San Diego County Ventura County Source: California EDD '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f
43 Home Sales & Median Prices Sales, Thousands, SAAR California Existing, single-family homes Price, Thousands $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $ Home Sales Median Home Price Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 $100 $0 Source: California Association of Realtors
44 Median Prices Existing Single-Family Homes County Aug-13 Aug-14 YTY % Change Los Angeles $444,950 $474, % Orange County $664,580 $699, % San Bernardino $183,240 $209, % Riverside County $290,030 $318, % Ventura $555,560 $602, % San Diego $482,470 $510, % Source: California Association of REALTORS
45 Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County Permits issued, thousands Multi-Family Single-Family '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC
46 12 Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County Permits issued, thousands Multi-Family Single-Family '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC
47 60 50 Residential Building Permits Issued in the Inland Empire Permits issued, thousands 9 6 Multi-Family Single-Family '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC
48 YTD Southern California Construction Employment Thousands Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
49 Rank 2015 Top Five Industries by Percentage Gains in Employment Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 1 Construction Construction Construction Admin & Supp 2 Admin & Supp Prof, Sci, Tech Real Estate Mgmt of Ent'ps 3 Prof, Sci, Tech Mgmt of Ent'ps Mgmt of Ent'ps Prof, Sci, Tech 4 Health Care Trans & Utilities Prof, Sci, Tech Health Care 5 Real Estate Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Education Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
50 L.A. 5-County Employment Growth, 2015 Total nonfarm job growth forecast for 2015 (thousands): jobs Construction Health Care & Social Asst Prof, Sci & Tech Srvs Admin. & Support Srvs Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Transport. & Utilities Educational Services Government Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Mgmt. of Enterprises Finance & Insurance Other Services Information -9.0 Source: -4.0 CA EDD, Labor 1.0 Market 6.0 Information 11.0 Division, 16.0 forecast 21.0 by LAEDC
51 Five Year Outlook
52 U.S. Five-Year Forecast GDP - Annual % Chg. 0.9% 2.2% 2.8% Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. -0.1% 1.1% 1.3% Unemployment Rate 5.9% 8.0% 5.3% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% Forecast Source: IHS, LAEDC
53 California Five-Year Forecast GSP - Annual % Chg. 0.9% 2.1% 3.1% Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. -0.4% 1.5% 1.6% Unemployment Rate 6.9% 10.2% 6.6% Personal Income - Annual % Chg. 3.1% 4.3% 5.5% Forecast Source: IHS, LAEDC
54 New Home Construction to Drive Growth Annual Average U.S. Housing Starts (Millions) California Housing Permits (Thousands) 1, , Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for for Economic Research
55 Population Grows in Southern California Pop in Millions %/Yr %/Yr Los Angeles % 0.4% Orange % 1.0% Riverside-San Bernardino % 1.7% Ventura % 0.7% Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for for Economic Research
56 CA Population Changes Post-Millenial Gen X Pre-Boomer Millenials Boomers Post-Millenial Gen X Pre-Boomer Millenials Boomers 22% 9% 20% 16% 5% 33% 20% 29% 18% 28%
57 Job Gains Continue Nonfarm Jobs in Millions %/Yr %/Yr Los Angeles % 1.2% Orange % 1.8% Riverside-San Bernardino % 2.6% Ventura % 1.7% Forecast Source: LAEDC
58 Rank Top Five Industries by Percentage Gains in Employment Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 1 Construction Construction Construction Construction 2 Admin & Supp Prof, Sci, Tech Information Admin & Supp 3 Prof, Sci, Tech Admin & Supp Admin & Supp Prof, Sci, Tech 4 Health Care Trans/Ware/Util Prof, Sci, Tech Information 5 Information Health Care Health Care Health Care Forecast Source: LAEDC
59 Technology Adoption
60 Implications For Entitlement Programs Employment/Workforce Needs Housing Market Market Opportunities
61 2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook THANK YOU!
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