The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence

Transcription

1 The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence aramlo@rennie.com Ryan Berlin, Senior Economist rberlin@rennie.com

2 Demographic

3 2016 The People Growth & Change age boomers 660, millennials 737, ,000 18,000 12,000 6, ,000 12,000 18,000 24, busters 795, 95,000!

4 Average Household Spending, BC People Consumer Spending $32,275 Household 2.59 Size Non-Major PMT Consumption $12,459 $26, $31, $35, $11,123 $11,655 $11,010 $39,505 $32, $13,790 $14,600 $23, $13,087 $17, $11,536 Consumption per Person Average < age

5 People Greater Vancouver s Mortgage Free Equity Mortgage free households in 2017: 288,807 Mortgage free households aged 55 to 74: 144,149 Mortgage free households aged 75 & older: 63,555 Est. mortgage free home value: $1.23 million Total mortgage free EQUITY: $355 Billion Total equity held by the 139, to 74 BOOMER households: $181 Billion Total equity held by the 61, PLUS households: $71 Billion 200, , ,771 Number of Households by Age % of Homes Mortgage Free 193,313 69% 83% 80% growing HOUSING equity 150, ,000 50, % 30,814 8, ,805 75,001 3,047 11, ,630 15% 17% 20, ,797 Number of Owned Homes 30% 46,234 50% 147, , ,816 72,998 71,150 99,694 76,985 63,555 Number of Mortgage Free Homes Under 25 years years years years years years 75 years and over 144,149 Households 60% 40% 20% 0%

6 3.1% 1,336,881 Total Population, Lower Mainland, % 3.4% 2,893,721 2,168, % 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% The People Growth & Change

7 , ,533 8,104 11,026 25, Components of Change, Lower Mainland Net Immigration Natural Increase Net Inter-provincial Net Intra-provincial 3,83 4 The People The Drivers to Change

8 -27,733-49, ,036-45, , , , , ,316 Immigration as a share of population Components of Change, Canada, 1971 to 2036 actual 0.9% 0.83% Immigration Net Immigration Natural Increase Emigration projected 0.78% The People The Drivers to Change

9 People The Drivers to Change 16,461 16,538 11,423 9,173 5,034 13,000 9,000 5,000 1,000-3,000-7,000 Net Inter-Provincial Migration, British Columbia (Q2 2017) 6,127 Q2 average age 3,251 Q2 average 3,460-1,727-1,789-2,709-2,316-6,

10 Total= +20,026 People The Drivers to Change 10,540 2,088 2,836 2, Q1 - Q4 2016

11 , ,533 8,104 11,026 25, ,890 1,402 6,391 41,440 Components of Change, Lower Mainland Net Immigration Natural Increase Net Inter-provincial Net Intra-provincial 3,83 4 The People The Drivers to Change

12 3.1% 1,336,881 Total Population, Lower Mainland, % 3.4% 3,379,524 3,827,434 2,168, % 2,893,721 births 2.9M 1.6% 1.4% 4M % our aging & deaths The People Growth & Change

13 934,000 more residents (32%) 3,827, % Total Population, Lower Mainland, % 3.4% 3,379,524 2,893,721 2,168, % 1.4% 1,336, % 1.1% 0.9% The People Growth & Change [725,000 over the past 20 (33%)]

14 2016 The People Growth & Change age boomers 660, millennials 737, ,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35, busters 795,000!

15 2036 The People Growth & Change for every senior today there & better +91% 411,000 more seniors % 140,000 more kids % 382,000 38more 0 workers 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 would be almost 2 by 2036

16 2036 The People Growth & Change & better 861,000 seniors ,000 kids million workers 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000

17 North Shore: +16% Lower Mainland to 2036:+32% Vanc./UEL: +16% Burnaby/NW: +33% TriCities: +46% PittM/MapleR: +47% The Valley: +44% Richmond: +32% Sry/Delta/WR: +34% Langleys: +55%

18 People New Multi-Family Development Where in the region?

19 People New Multi-Family Development Where in the region?

20

21 PROJECTED GDP GROWTH RATE % 2.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.5% Source: IMF 1.5% 0.7%

22 HISTORICAL GDP CHANGE, AVG BC Ontario Manitoba 2.1% 2.5% 3.2% Recent GDP Growth Quebec NB PEI Canada NS Sask Nfld -1.3% -0.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% Alberta -3.1%

23 PROJECTED GDP CHANGE, AVG Consensus OUTLOOK of the Big 5 Banks Alberta BC Ontario Canada Manitoba Quebec Sask PEI NS NB 1.2% 1.0% 1.4% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% Nfld -0.8%

24 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE British Greater Vancouver Rest of BC Columbia +7% +13% +156, ,700 Strong jobs JOBS GROWTH -0.2% in Vancouver CMA -2,200

25 ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, % 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% Recent EMPLOYMENT Growth 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% Toronto Calgary Edmonton Vancouver

26 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ( 000s JOBS) Vancouver % Toronto 38.3 CMA EMPLOYMENT Growth All Other CMAs Combined %

27 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, JAN-SEP % 3.4% 3.5% 2.8% 2.9% CMA EMPLOYMENT Growth Edmonton Calgary Toronto Montreal Vancouver Job growth, 000s

28 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 12.0% Canada Montreal Toronto Calgary Edmonton Vancouver 10.0% 8.0% 8.5% 6.0% 6.5% 6.1% 3-month MA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 4.0% 2.0% 4.5% 0.0%

29 2016 SHARE OF TOTAL EMP, VANCOUVER CMA Trade 16.0% Health Care Pro/Sci/Tech Services 9.6% 11.5% Construction 8.0% Manufacturing 7.1% Education FIRE + Rental/Leasing Acc + Food Services 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% Canada Avg =6.2% Info, Culture + Rec 6.4% Transport & WH 6.3% composition of Business Support 4.7% EMPLOYMENT Other Services Public Admin 4.3% 3.7% Other Resource 0.5% Utilities 0.5% Agriculture 0.5%

30 CONTRIBUTION OF FIRE + RENTAL/LEASING TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, VAN CMA 15% FIRE & Rental/ Leasing 5% SECTOR Past 15 Years Past Year

31 CONTRIBUTION OF FIRE + RENTAL/LEASING For Jan-Sep 2017, TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, VAN CMA FIRE + Rental/Leasing 15% has accounted for 20% FIRE & Rental/ Leasing of total employment growth in 5% Greater Vancouver SECTOR Past 15 Years Past Year

32 LOWER MAINLAND EMPLOYMENT & PRICES 40% 30% 8% 6% 20% 4% 10% 2% prices & job growth CORRELATED 0% -10% -20% YoY Change in Benchmark $ YoY Change in Employment Poly. (YoY Change in Employment) 0% -2% -4%

33 LOWER MAINLAND EMPLOYMENT & PRICES 40% Our housing market and our economy are becoming increasingly 30% 6% 8% 20% intertwined. 4% 10% 2% Factors influencing our housing market also 0% 0% prices & job growth CORRELATED -10% have the potential to influence broader economic activity, which includes consumer -20% spending and the demand for ICI space. YoY Change in Benchmark $ YoY Change in Employment Poly. (YoY Change in Employment) -2% -4%

34 The Interest Rate environment THE LONG, LONG RUN 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5-yr Conventional Mortgage, Canada BoC Target 2 hikes in 3 mos

35 +0.50% in the target 3.20% $736K $702K -5% in purchasing power Let s assume: $100K HH Inc. $100K DP 25 year am. 35% GDS The 0.50% increase in the interest rate costs an additional ~$25/month per $100,000 borrowed

36 The Interest Rate environment the Bank will be guided by incoming data to assess the sensitivity of the economy to interest rates A new paradigm?

37 The Interest Rate environment [we] will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate A new paradigm?

38 DECEMBER 2018 OVERNIGHT TARGET RATE > BMO Capital Markets: 1.75% > TD s: 1.50% > CIBC World Markets: 1.50% > Scotiabank: 1.75% Consensus > RBC: 2.00% OUTLOOK of the Big 5 Banks

39 IN 50 WORDS OR LESS - new stress test for uninsured borrowers, effective 1 Jan 2018 The NeW Osfi Rules - must clear a higher hurdle interest rate to qualify for a mortgage - could reduce PP, home renovations; could result in higher debt costs for existing owners & reduce competition among lenders - impacts could be moot

40 3.20% 5.20% The NeW Osfi Rules Let s assume: $100K HH Inc. $100K DP 25 year am. 35% GDS $736K $702K -5% $589K -20% in purchasing power

41 +0.50% +2.00% The NeW Osfi Rules Let s assume: $100K HH Inc. $100K DP 25 year am. 35% GDS there 2.70% are 3.20% and, 5.20% by extension, risks to overall economic $736K $702K activity. -5% $589K That said, from an ICI perspective, opportunities exist. -20% in purchasing power

42 POPULATION BY PLACE OF WORK, VAN CMA 8.3% Share home 1,104,760 Total Employment +7% 1,182, % POR & POW EMPLOYMENT Home -3% 91,590 88,

43 POPULATION BY PLACE OF WORK, VAN CMA employment 8.3% Share associated home with 1,182,390 1,104,760 Total Employment Meanwhile usual places of work +7% in Greater Vancouver rose by 6% 7.5% POR & POW EMPLOYMENT Home -3% or by 91,590 88,745 57,400 jobs

44 EXPORT-ORIENTED (ECONOMIC BASE) VS POPULATION-SERVING EMPLOYMENT Export-oriented employment refers to jobs associated with activities that reflect comparative advantage. Population-serving & Export-oriented SECTORS Examples: resource-extraction, agriculture

45 EXPORT-ORIENTED (ECONOMIC BASE) VS POPULATION-SERVING EMPLOYMENT Population-serving employment refers to jobs associated with local population needs. Population-serving & Export-oriented Examples: retail trade, construction SECTORS

46 EXPORT-ORIENTED (ECONOMIC BASE) VS POPULATION-SERVING EMPLOYMENT Population-serving employment refers to jobs associated with local population needs. Population-serving & Export-oriented SECTORS Within a particular market, communities are either under-served or over-served.

47 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Regional Average: 52 jobs / 100 residents

48 PER CAPITA RETAIL SPENDING, CMAs $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 Montreal Toronto Vancouver Vancouver: +46% Toronto: +37% Montreal: +25% Expansion-era retail sales growth $1,200 $1,100 $1,

49 EMPLOYMENT IN TRADE Vanc./UEL: +16% North Shore: 16% 6.7 TriCities: +46% Regional Average: 8.4 jobs / 100 residents PittM/MapleR: +47% The Valley: +44% Sry/Delta/WR: +34% 6.6

50 TAKEAWAYS Wrapping It Up BC & the Lower Mainland are enjoying a sustained period of economic stability and growth not seen for many decades this is reflected in our growing & changing population Interest rates remain relatively low, supporting new housing development, borrowing, and spending Migration will drive population and employment growth and aging will drive our change Opportunities in the ICI space exist and will evolve in line with our changing economy, demographics, & local land use policies