Inequality Overview Slides Spring 2009 David Autor Lecture 1

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1 Inequality Overview Slides Spring 2009 David Autor Lecture 1

2 Returns to Education

3 Goldin and Katz, 2007

4 Autor, Katz, Kearney (out-takes)

5 Overview Slides Productivity and Wage Growth Katz and Autor, 1999

6 Dustmann, Ludsteck and Schonberg, 2008

7 Real Wage Levels

8 Source: Robert Gordon, 2000, NBER WP 7833

9 Source: Robert Gordon, 2006

10 Source: Robert Gordon, 2006

11 Source: Robert Gordon, 2000, NBER WP 7752

12

13 Autor, Katz, Kearney 2008

14 Changes in Composition-Adjusted Male Full Time Log Weekly Wages Changes in Log Real Wage Levels (1963 = 0) A. Males HS Dropout Some College Post-College HS Grads Exactly College Autor 2008

15 Changes in Log Real Wage Levels (1963 = 0) Changes in Composition-Adjusted Female Full Time Log Weekly Wages B. Females HS Dropout Some College Post-College HS Grads Exactly College Autor 2008

16 Wage Distribution and Top Incomes

17 Autor, Katz, Kearney 2008

18 Log 90/10 wage ratio Overall Male 90/10 Wage Inequality CPS March Full-Time CPS May/ORG Hourly Autor, Katz, Kearney 2008

19 37.5% 35.0% 32.5% 30.0% 27.5% 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% FIGURE 8 The Top Decile Wage Income Share, Share (in %) Piketty and Saez 2003

20 Share of total income accruing to each group 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Top 1% (incomes above $382,600 in 2006) Top 5-1% (incomes between $148,400 and $382,600) Top 10-5% (incomes between $104,700 and $148,400) FIGURE 2 Decomposing the Top Decile US Income Share into 3 Groups, Piketty and Saez 2003

21 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% FIGURE 1 The Top Decile Income Share, Top 10% Income Share Excluding capital gains Including capital gains Piketty and Saez 2003

22 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% FIGURE 3 The Top 0.01% Income Share, Top 0.01% Income Share Including capital gains Excluding capital gains Piketty and Saez 2003

23 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Salaries Capital Income Business Income Capital Gains FIGURE 4B The Top 0.1% Income Share and Composition, Piketty and Saez 2003

24 $100,000,000 $10,000,000 $1,000,000 FIGURE 11 CEO Pay versus Average Wage Income, $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 Piketty and Saez 2003 CEO pay (2005 dollars) Average Wage Income (2005 dollars) Rank 10 CEO pay Rank 50 CEO pay Rank 100 CEO pay Top 100 CEOs average pay Salary+Bonus rank 10 Average Salary (right scale)

25 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FIGURE 7A The Top 0.1% Wealth Share in the United States, Kopczuk and Saez 2004 Wealth Share

26 12% 11% 10% United States France United Kingdom 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% share (in %) FIGURE 12 Top 0.1% Income Shares in the U.S., France, and the U.K., Piketty and Saez 2006 NBER WP 11955

27 Saez and Veall 2005

28 Saez and Veall 2005

29 Saez and Veall 2005

30 Saez and Veall 2005

31 Piketty and Saez 2006 NBER WP 11955

32 Dustmann, Ludsteck and Schonberg, 2008

33 Dustmann, Ludsteck and Schonberg, 2008

34 Polarization

35 Autor and Dorn 2008a

36 Lemieux, 2007

37 Hourly wage ratio Ratios of 90th, 50th and 10th Percentile Real Hourly Earnings, /50 (3 Year Moving Avg.) 50/10 (3 Year Moving Avg.) Autor, Katz, Kearney 2006

38 Autor, Katz, Kearney 2008

39 Autor, Katz, Kearney 2008

40 Real Log Wage Changes by Wage Percentile and Log real earnings change pctile Wage Percentile Autor and Dorn 2008a

41 Smoothed Changes in Employment by Occupational Skill Percentile x Change in Employment Share Skill Percentile (Ranked by Occupational Mean Wage) Autor and Dorn 2008a

42 Real Log Wage Changes by Wage Percentile and Smoothed Changes in Employment by Occupational Skill Percentile Log real earnings change pctile Wage Percentile 100 x Change in Employment Share Skill Percentile (Ranked by Occupational Mean Wage) Autor and Dorn 2008a

43 Goos and Manning, 2007

44 Dustmann, Ludsteck and Schonberg, 2008

45 Goos, Manning and Salomons 2009

46 Goos, Manning and Salomons 2009

47 Residual Inequality

48 Residual Male 90/10 Hourly Wage Inequality Log 90/10 wage ratio CPS March CPS May/ORG Autor, Katz, Kearney 2005 NBER WP #11628

49 Residual Male 90/50 Hourly Wage Inequality Log 90/50 wage ratio CPS March CPS May/ORG Autor, Katz, Kearney 2005 NBER WP #11628

50 Residual Male 50/10 Hourly Wage Inequality Log 50/10 wage ratio CPS March CPS May/ORG Autor, Katz, Kearney 2005 NBER WP #11628

51 Log 90/10 wage ratio Residual Female 90/10 Hourly Wage Inequality CPS March CPS May/ORG Autor, Katz, Kearney 2005 NBER WP #11628

52 Residual Female 90/50 Hourly Wage Inequality Log 90/50 wage ratio CPS March CPS May/ORG Autor, Katz, Kearney 2005 NBER WP #11628

53 Residual Female 50/10 Hourly Wage Inequality Log 50/10 wage ratio CPS March CPS May/ORG Autor, Katz, Kearney 2005 NBER WP #11628

54 Earnings Instability

55 Gottschalk and Moffit 1994

56 Gottschalk and Moffit 1994

57 Gottschalk and Moffit 1994

58 Gender and Race Gaps

59 Goldin, 2006 Goldin, 2006

60 Goldin, 2006

61 Mulligan and Rubinstein 2006 Mimeo

62 Goldin, 2006

63 Goldin, 2006

64 Goldin, 2006

65 Mulligan and Rubinstein, forthcoming

66 O Neill and O Neill 2005 NBER WP 11240

67 Western and Petit, 2004

68 Western and Petit, 2004

69 Models of Wage Differentials

70 TABLE I Levels and Changes in the Educational Composition of Employment and the College+/High School Wage Premium, A. Full-Time Equivalent Employment Shares by Education Level (in percent) and Log College+/High School Wage Premium High School High School Some College College Log College+/ Dropouts Graduates College Graduates Equivalents HS Wage 1940 Census Census Census Census Census CPS CPS Census Feb. 90 CPS CPS Source: Autor, Katz, Krueger 1998 (updated to 2000)

71 Source: Katz and Murphy 1992

72 Log Relative Supply of College/Non-College Labor, Log Relative Supply Index Autor, Katz, Kearney 2005

73 A. Detrended College-High School Wage Differential and Relative Supply, Log Points Detrended Wage Differential Detrended Relative Supply Source: Autor, Katz, Kearney, 2008

74 B. Katz-Murphy Prediction Model for the College-High School Wage Gap Log Wage Gap Observed CLG/HS Gap Katz-Murphy Predicted Wage Gap: Trend Source: Autor, Katz, Kearney 2008

75 Goldin and Katz 2007

76 Goldin and Katz 2007

77 Goldin and Katz 2007

78 International Comparisons of Wage Inequality

79 Source: Blau and Kahn, ReStat 2005

80 Source: Blau and Kahn, ReStat 2005

81 Source: Leuven, Oosterbeek and van Ophem 2004

82 Source: Leuven, Oosterbeek and van Ophem 2004

83 Source: Leuven, Oosterbeek and van Ophem 2004

84 Source: Leuven, Oosterbeek and van Ophem 2004

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