Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table. Local Government Managers Conference Prince George June 17, 2015

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table Local Government Managers Conference Prince George June 17, 2015

2 APG Project Overview - Released This Summer Forecast Gateway Focus 54 Occupations 8 Sectors (Air -Northern BC only, Construction, Logistics, Marine, Rail, Trucking, Supports Multiple Sectors, Managers) 3 Economic Scenarios (Low, Moderate, High levels of investment) 19 industry validation sessions Also APGC LMI project Support from ESDC Canada 2

3 Engineers, Technologist and Technicians Project Overview Released by September Partnership with: Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of British Columbia (APEGBC) Association of Consulting Engineering Companies British Columbia (ACEC-BC Applied Science Technologists and Technicians of British Columbia (ASTTBC) With support from the Province of BC and ESDC Canada Labour Market Information (LMI) Report for engineering, technologist and technician occupations: 31 Occupations In BC In 4 Regions (Lower Mainland, Northern BC, Southeastern BC and the Vancouver Island Coast region) In 10 industries 3

4 3 BC Economic Scenarios Low $17.6B Lower than the 2013 Scenario Lower Mainland $6.4B North $6.5B No LNG Moderate (includes all projects in Low) $67.4B About the same as the 2013 Scenario Lower Mainland $15.7B North $39.9B 2 LNG High (includes all projects in Moderate and Low) $100.2B Total Higher than the 2013 Scenario Lower Mainland $16.6B North $67.1B 5 LNG

5 BC LMI Forecast 5

6 APGST Tightness Ranking Region: British Columbia Scenario High Low Moderate Supply Growth Risk High LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW Low LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW Immigration Risk to Supply Moderate LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW High MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH Low MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH Moderate MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH Worker Mobility Impact High Low MEDIUM Moderate

7 Total Job Openings: All Occupations - British Columbia 24,500 22,500 20,500 18,500 16,500 14,500 12, High Low Moderate 7

8 BC Employment by Sector 2018 Supports Multiple Sectors in the APG 50% Construction 9% Logistics 10% Trucking 27% Marine 1% Rail 3% 8

9 5,000 BC Expansion Demand by Sector 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 Construction Logistics Marine Rail Trucking Supports Multiple Sectors in the APG Expansion Demand Expansion Demand

10 Labour Force Supply: British Columbia Moderate Scenario 440, , , , , , , , , Base Supply Immigration Mobility Occupational Mobility New Entrants Demand Normal Unemployment

11 Northern BC = North Coast, Nechako and Northeast Southeastern BC = Cariboo (which contains Prince George) Thompson Okanagan and Kootenay

12 Northern BC LMI Forecast 12

13 Region: North APGST Tightness Ranking Supply Growth Risk Scenario High Low Moderate High LOW HIGH MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW Immigration Risk to Supply Worker Mobility Impact Low Moderate High Low Moderate High Low LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW No International Immigration No International Immigration No International Immigration No International Immigration LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW Moving In Leaving Modera te Leaving Low Moderate Leaving Low

14 Total Job Openings: All Occupations - North 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, High Low Moderate 14

15 Northern BC Employment by Sector 2018 Air 2% Construction 9% Supports Multiple Sectors in the APG 49% Logistics 10% Marine Rail 1% 2% Trucking 27% 15

16 400 Northern BC Expansion Demand by Sector Air Construction Logistics Marine Rail Trucking Supports Multiple Sectors in the APG Expansion Demand Expansion Demand

17 37,000 Labour Force Supply: North Moderate Scenario 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23, Base Supply Immigration Mobility Occupational Mobility New Entrants Demand Normal Unemployment

18 Top 10 In-Demand Occupations in Prince George We have 6 in our Studies 5 overlap with the top 60 occupations in BC (source: Province of BC, JTST) Engineers (Civil, Mechanical Electrical and Electronics) Heavy Duty Equipment Mechanics Construction Millwrights Truck Drivers Welders We have 19 of BC s top 60 in our studies We ll look at 2 18

19 Welders

20 Total Job Openings: Welders - British Columbia High Low Moderate

21 Total Job Openings: Welders, Moderate Scenario North South East

22 Highlights Job openings are created largely by Attrition, although Expansion plays a stronger role than in previous forecasts in all regions except for Northern BC. Job openings in Northern BC are created almost solely (close to 95%) by Attrition. At least 1 in 5 Welders working today will leave the labour market by the end of the forecast period. For BC, the High Investment scenario will generate a total of about 420 more Job Openings than the Low in the first five years of the forecast. In the final 5 years the Low Investment scenario out performs the High by just over 180 job openings. The net effect is the High Scenario generates about 240 more job openings than the Low. This is similar in Northern BC. 7 in 10 of the workers who add to the supply of Welders are newly trained and new to the workforce. In Northern BC, this figure is almost 100%. 50% of Welders live in the Lower Mainland. Another 15% are in Northern BC. On average, today s Welders have years left in their working lives. 22

23 Labour Force Supply: Welders, British Columbia Moderate Scenario 11,700 11,200 10,700 10,200 9,700 9,200 8,700 8, Base Supply Immigration Mobility Occupational Mobility New Entrants Demand Normal Unemployment

24 Civil Engineers

25 Total Job Openings: Civil Engineers - British Columbia High Low Moderate

26 Total Job Openings: Civil Engineers, Moderate Scenario North South East

27 Highlights The High Investment scenario will generate a total of about 170 more Job Openings than the Low in the first five years of the forecast. In the final 5 years the Low Investment scenario out performs the High by almost 90 job openings Job openings for Civil Engineers are created by Attrition and Expansion in largely equal parts. In Northern BC, Attrition generates 4 in 5 job openings. At least 1 in 4 Civil Engineers today will leave the labour market by This labour market also shows a high (25-50%) reliance on Immigration as a source of new workers in the occupation. About 1 in 2 of the New Supply of Civil Engineers are New Entrants newly trained and new to the labour market. 3 in 4 in Northern BC. 80% of Civil Engineers live in the Lower Mainland, while just 2% live in Northern BC. On average, Civil Engineers have years left in their working lives. 27

28 Labour Force Supply: Civil Engineers, British Columbia Moderate Scenario 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6, Base Supply Immigration Mobility Occupational Mobility New Entrants Demand Normal Unemployment

29 For more information: Thank you Jonathan Kassian, Project Manager Where can you get the reports: online: by by phone: Eulala Mills, President LevelHeaded Thinking